Long shots


The prospect of a long shot coming in is quite exciting to NFL fans -- unless you didn't have the guts to cover David in the battle against Goliath. If only you'd had a source like NFLbets to tip you off to the longshots, those bets that seem miles away from coming in, but ended up being so obvious. See this page for stories and odds on NFL betting's long shots.

Add the 2018 Buffalo Bills in week 3 to the list of memorable longshots: This was the first team to win SU against a 17-point favorite since the early 1990s, the first to go in as a double-digit underdog and win by more than a touchdown in 50 years or so, and easily the biggest SU winner against a 17-point spread ever. Nice -- unless you bet against them.


US Presidential Election betting: Get your bets in before the polls come in

Tuesday, 10 March 2020 14:00 EST

Some may think it in bad taste to bet on elections, but NFLbets sees proposition bets like “US Presidential Election – Winning Party” as a fantastic opportunity to make the best of a bad situation, especially if you strongly suspect who you’re voting he who will ultimately lose in Election 2020.

For example, consider this prop…

US Presidential Election Winning party
Democrats: +120
Republicans: -245
Any other party: +5500

First, those 55/1 odds offered on “Any other party” are ludicrous. Look, NFLbets will give you better odds than that right now. We’ll give you 10,000/1 odds here – at least. Seriously, why burn your money in Las Vegas on what is clearly either the product of drunken logic or a gag gift for that wacky Libertarian or Green in your social circle?

In all seriousness, if a) Donald J. “The Populist King” Trump felt it necessary to go through the Republican Party to win and b) registered Democrats would rather vote for a guy who confuses texting with the internet, his wife with his sister, Iowa with New Hampshire and running for president with running for senate than a candidate who has a puncher’s chance against the MAGA machine.

And here lies the rub. The combined weight of mainstream media bias, billionaire backers and the entrenched Democratic Party establishment was enough to give former veep Joe Biden a healthy win of delegates and perhaps even a slim victory in the overall vote. The result was a big shift in the odds table for the proposition bet “Next Elected President of the United States” going into March 16 primary voting looks like so:

Donald Trump: -130
Joe Biden: +125
Bernie Sanders: 16/1

And Sanders just three weeks ago was at +275 with Biden fetching +325 at some online sportsbooks.

Pragmatically speaking – and we must speak pragmatically when dealing with real money – the simplest Election 2020 scenario plays with Trump winning handily. So covering the reelection of ol’ Cheeto Head at -130 is a freakin’ steal right now, and we mean *right now*, like before the next numbers come in. Because if the mainstream media again succeeds in convincingly portraying the results of the March 10 primaries as another resounding Biden win, he’ll seem unbeatable – for the nomination.

But consider three alternate scenarios:

• What if Sanders somehow still manages to win enough electoral votes to contest at the convention. Or even wilder, say he gets exactly 1,932. At 59 delegates short, Sanders would then almost assuredly get the support of Tulsi Gabbard’s 2 delegates and would more than likely do whatever it takes to win over Elizabeth Warren’s 57 – even give her a/the spot on the ticket so as to mollify moderates while keeping progressives happy.

• Alternatively, a contested convention puts the results up for grabs. This would be a guarantee that Sanders gets no nomination, while the unlikeliness of a Biden nomination increases greatly, paving the way for a nominee who maybe, you know, could beat Trump.

• Finally, there is the dark end of the spectrum. After all, there is a reason that people show concern over the fact that the three main contenders for the presidency are all septuagenarians. On the Democratic side, you’ve got one guy who’s already suffered a heart attack during this campaign versus a second who … how shall NFLbets put it … has been acting slightly touched lately. (And we don’t mean “touched” in Biden’s usual fashion here.)

Now, emerging as the winner out of a contested convention doesn’t exactly make one a favorite for the presidency: The last such candidate was Adlai Stevenson in 1952, who lost to Dwight Eisenhower. Hubert Humphrey was the last to get the nomination while neither the incumbent nor a participant in primaries; in 1972, he got smoked by the sitting POTUS, the charisma machine Richard Nixon.

The point: Odds on “Other” in a “To Win U.S. Presidential Election” prop must be pretty enticing right now at an absolute minimum of 20/1 and probably more on the order of 35/1. As a flyer, throw a few dollars at any decent odds you can find on this; its one hell of a better bet than an insane “Third Party Wins” bet.

(So how about hat offering, My Bookie…?)

– written by Os Davis

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Earliest Super Bowl LV odds: Chances of Baltimore Ravens, 31 other teams to win in 2021

Wednesday, 05 February 2020 14:49 EST

Sure, it’s seriously waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to be betting on Super Bowl LV – even if you were among the reported great majority who lost on Super Bowl betting this year thanks to some underwhelming offensive performances – but it’s never too early to make snarky comments and goggle at some frankly weird lines. So let’s have at; the top spot on My Bookie's odds table is naturally held by the…

• Kansas City Chiefs: 4/1. So if Kansas City managed to go back-to-back titles by managing not lose winning Super Bowl LV, they’d be the first since the 2003-04 New England Patriots? Yeah, NFLbets isn’t ready to make that sort of commitment yet.

• Baltimore Ravens: 13/2. We’re thinking this line is only going to get shorter as the season progresses; there’s no way the Ravens front office can avoid improving Lamar Jackson’s WR corps this offseason. Ravens fans are certainly already jumping on this one.

• San Francisco 49ers: 15/2. Given that 9 of the last 19 Super Bowl-losing teams have missed the playoffs altogether the following season (7 of 15 if excluding Patriots teams) and that Kyle Shanahan has inexplicably demonstrated little confidence in Jimmy Garoppolo, what gives with this line? As for NFLbets, we’ll most likely be taking the under on 49ers wins in 2020.

• New England Patriots: 8/1. You can’t ever write off these Patriots, so – no, wait. Yes, you can write off the Patriots in 2020.

• New Orleans Saints: 15/1
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 18/1
. Even with killer offseasons, the willingness to continue running with QBs so far past their prime will eliminate the Saints and Steelers from contention again.

• Dallas Cowboys: 20/1. Sure, the Cowboys should be well improved under Mike McCarthy. We can easily imagine them winning a weak-ass NFC East, sneaking through the playoffs and finally getting smoked in the Super Bowl. What a lucrative, glorious dream…

• Green Bay Packers, “Los Angeles” Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks: 25/1. NFLbets always seems to throw a few moneys at Seattle prior to the season, and the Seahawks typically exceed expectations. Given a decent offseason, the Packers would appear to be a decent bet here as well.

• Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings: 30/1. Call this bunch the “We Won’t Get Fooled Again” Group. Or the Led by Once-Overblown Quarterbacks Bunch.

• Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans: 35/1
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 100/1
. Apparently, the AFC South winner and interdivisional games will be as preposterously difficult to predict in 2020 as in ’19…

• Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears: 40/1. NFLbets is a bit surprised that the Buffalo Bills, after two straight playoff appearances and showing real improvement in the 2019 season. Maybe it’s all in the marketing.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 45/1
• Denver Broncos: 50/1
• Carolina Panthers, New York Giants: 66/1
• New York Jets: 70/1
• Detroit Lions: 80/1
. The Rebuilding Level, we’d call this quintet – except we’re not sure what to call what the Broncos front office has been doing since signing decrepit Peyton Manning.

• Arizona Cardinals: 85/1. NFLbets hopes the Cardinals go into the 2020 season as underrated as these early odds indicate. Again, it’s way early, but we’ve got a feeling about Kyler Murray & Co...

• Cincinnati Bengals: 100/1
• Miami Dolphins: 125/1
• Washington: 150/1
. Prediction: At least 75% betting on any of these three teams in any “To Win Super Bowl LV” prop will continue to deny reality for one more season.

– written by Os Davis

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The top 5 Biggest Losers in NFL betting, 2019-20

Monday, 03 February 2020 14:58 EST

So no matter which side you backed in Super Bowl LIV, you probably lost money in prop betting or an the over/under, thanks to underwhelming statistical performances all around and an outcome few expected – just repeat the mantra “that’s why they call it gambling” and get back on the horse. (Assuming you didn’t put the horse on San Francisco 49ers +1½…)

In the meantime, under the proviso that “misery loves company,” NFLbets’ll attempt to cheer you up with a list of folks who lost bigger and harder than you did. Following our first annual Top 5 Losers in NFL Betting list. Happy schadenfreude!

Honorable mention. Howard Ratner. The protagonist of Uncut Gems, essentially the sports bettor’s Trainspotting, cannot technically be included in this list because ol’ Howie’s poison was NBA betting and because he’s, likesay, fictional. However, this character’s status as a big-time loser cannot be underestimated. Even when hitting an incredibly stupid three-bet parlay for upward of $1 million, he still manages to lose his shop and (SPOILERS!) his life right there on Netflix in front of everyone. Combine with the Academy’s snub of Adam Sandler for an Oscar nomination – to be fair, a very strong five make up the nominees in this category this year – and it adds up to a big L.

5. Patrick Mahomes bettors. Those expecting big returns from Kansas City Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes in Super Bowl LIV proposition bets got burned all over the place, as Mahomes passed for less than 300 yards, had zero TD passes and threw and interception. But at least until the 4th quarter, he had crept over the 33½ to 36½ yards to cover on most “Pat Mahomes rushing yards” props; then came three successive kneeldowns to subtract 15 yards and bam went all those bets as well. Mahomes’s performance was pretty negative for those wagering on him, but those kneeldowns finished ’em off: At least four major US sportsbooks reported that between 66% and 75% of bets in this prop had been put on the over.

4. Jade Roper Tolbert. Kicking off year 2020 was the sordid tale of former Bachelor in Paradise stars who may or may not have cheated at online fantasy football and thus were denied a $1 million grand prize won during a wild-card weekend contest hosted by Draft Kings. Tanner and Jade both entered their max 150 entries in the contest, but after Jade was congratulated for her first-place finish, an investigation by DK revealed that every one of Jade’s and husband Tanner’s entries were unique – quite a coincidence. Naturally, Tanner took to Twitter to cry sexism; no matter: Citing the zillions-to-1 odds required for 300 unique entries to be filed honestly, DK ultimately rescinded the $1 million. Just goes to show: DFS is pure gambling.  

3. Mattress Mack. Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale is the embodiment of the gambler with far more money than brain. Like Howard Ratner, Mattress Mack’s main area of betting is outside football; however, McIngvale’s story should be a lot more directly useful to the average NFL bettor than does Ranter’s. As an unabashed fan of the Houston Astros, McIngvale lost some $13 million alone in bets on the Astros to win the World Series – before losing to the Washington Nationals. As it turns out, McIngvale had offered a refund for the full price of a mattress from any of his Texas furniture stores if the Astros won the World Series and $13 million would have covered that promise financially with a profit. The lesson for football bettors: Hedging doesn’t pay.

2. Josh Shaw. On November 10 at Caesars sportsbook in Las Vegas, Jsoh shaw placed at least one odd parlay involving three second-half point spreads and lost. Happens every Sunday during NFL season, right? Yes, but. As it turns out, Shaw was under contract with the Arizona Cardinals and, when the illicit wager was discovered, earned himself an open-ended suspension from the league. Worse yet, one of the ends of the parlay had the Cardinals on the losing side. Still worse yet, the Cardinals covered the second-half spread, but lost SU and busted Shaw’s parlay. Dude, it was the Buccaneers – you should’ve taken the over…

1. Anybody who bet on the Cleveland Browns at season’s beginning. NFLbets is not counted among the lot who figured a team which blew its last realistic shot at a Super Bowl in 1988 and was two seasons removed from an 0-16 finish – and so could harangue with impunity, but we’ll spare you. After all, the embarrassment of throwing good money at a team led by a QBs coach, “powered” by a guy who seemed to have dropped football awareness from his retinue altogether, featuring a helmet-swinging psychopath and a prima donna WR who taught teammates only to jokingly ask for trades to other teams should be enough. How the hell were these guys getting better odds than the Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers in the preseason? 2019 may have put NFL bettors off the Browns permanently. (Now watch the 2020 Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl LV starting the eason at 80/1. We may already have an early entry for next year’s list...)

–written by Os Davis

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NFLbets’ favorite Super Bowl proposition bet? MVP and it’s not even close

Saturday, 01 February 2020 13:00 EST

NFLbets is generally not a fan of proposition betting prior to the Super Bowl, when hundreds of props hit the market and we get two weeks to analyze the probabilities. And as we always say, the best bacon-saving bet you can make is Super Bowl MVP. Sure, most NFL bettors will (justifiably) cover the starting QB(s) of any team with a chance to win straight up – but the winnings on a hedge bet of a Julian Edelman (12/1), Von Miller (15/1) or Malcolm Smith (20/1) covers a lot of bad beats and bad bets.

Unfortunately, offerings on the “To Win Super Bowl MVP” prop bet aren’t great this year if you’re backing the Kansas City Chiefs. Right off the top, QBs have won 9 of the last 13 MVP awards, including two each by Tom Brady and Eli Manning; they’ve also taken 29 of 53 MVPs thus far, but note that for six years no QB won the award – in Super Bowls VII through XII. Yeah, the 1970s.

Patrick Mahomes (even odds/+100) overshadows everything on the Kansas City side of this prop – with good reason, as all the history is on his side. Going back to Kurt Warner in XXXVI, the MVP award has been won by a quarterback appearing in his first Super Bowl eight times of 17.

Additionally, there’s this: In how many scenarios do the Chiefs win but Mahomes doesn’t get the MVP? Considering that My Bookie has opened up a “Will Patrick Mahomes win Super Bowl MVP” prop (“yes” at +100, “no” at -135), a proposition combining “no” with the Kansas City money line (ML) at -125 would fetch better than 2/1 or +225 if going Kansas City -1½. Now think before you bet that, pilgrim – even if you can get someone to take the bet.

No need to overcomplicate things, though. The more you believe in a Chiefs win, the more you should be betting on Mahomes for MVP. And those covering the San Francisco 49ers plus points or ML can essentially hedge that bet with a few moneys on Mahomes here.

Now on the San Francisco side of this proposition bet, things get more interesting. NFLbets believes in covering several offerings in this prop and lots of great value exists among 49ers, starting with QB Jimmy Garoppolo (5/2). Poor Jimmy G. has been hacked on like no Super Bowl quarterback in recent history, based on the Niners run-first offense and the mere eight pass attempts in the Green Bay Packers game.

NFLbtes isn’t sure why talking heads and internet buzz alike are ignoring the very probable likelihood that passing simply wasn’t necessary with Raheem Mostert (6/1) destroying the Packers D, but we’re not. If backing the 49ers, you’re betting Garappolo in the Super Bowl MVP prop. Chiefs bettors may consider hedging with some moneys on Jimmy G. as well.

As for Mostert, his 6/1 odds would appear to be good value; the dude has literally improved week to week through 2019-20, culminating in the four-TD blowup in the NFC Championship. But how can the proper NFL bettor believe in any member of a RB-by-committee winning this award? Upward trajectory aside, Mostert accounted for just over 35% of the team’s total running yards in 2019; even if Tevin Coleman’s injury keeps him limited, the big over/under of 55 points implies lots of passing and quick scores.

Speaking of this eventuality, NFLbets is loving the current vogue pick in this prop, WR Deebo Samuel, currently at 22/1 after opening at 25/1. Historically speaking, wide receivers are only second to QBs in winning this award, with seven WR MVPs in Super Bowl history, and four in the past 14 years. Betting on Samuel represents outstanding value and since the rookie has few truly outstanding games on the résumé thus far, well, Jimmy hasn’t been throwing much lately. If you’re thinking San Francisco wins and the over hits, Samuel would be getting a good 10 targets at least and you’re covering this.

Tempting, too, are the 13/1 odds that TE George Kittle’s getting in this prop. While no tight end has ever won the Super Bowl MVP, the game’s evolution suggests that such an eventuality is not far off. Hell, Rob Gronkowski might’ve taken the trophy in LII had his Patriots not blown the game to the Philadelphia Eagles. Kittle is a pretty decent pick here, but we like the far less risky “yes” in the “Will George Kittle score a Touchdown” prop bet at +130 well more.

So let’s say you believe the 49ers defense gets to Mahomes, who’s sacked frequently enough – likesay, three times – to significantly alter the game. Look no further than Nick Bosa, currently at 17/1. Bosa has had an All-Pro season and has garnered much hype as the best player on the league’s best defense. In an emphatic win by San Francisco in which individual stats are spread thin among many Niners, Bosa’s a no-brainer.

If you’re thinking about longshots, first stop is Emmanuel Sanders (40/1). In 12 games with the 2019 49ers, Sanders has gotten 56 targets total, or 5.66 per, and in two playoff games has caught just two passes on three targets, called upon mostly for run blocking. Any such bet here is based on Sanders’s veteran experience – he’s already played three Super Bowls, while the great majority of the team outside of Richard Sherman has yet to appear in one – and is predicated on, again, at least a highish-scoring game with lots of passing from Garoppolo.

Finally, for a real miracle win, look at FS Jimmy Ward at 100/1. My Bookie currently lists some 25 players other than Ward – so nearly one-quarter of the total number of players on active rosters for this game – in their “To Win Super Bowl MVP” offerings and yet “the field” is somehow going off at 16/1. Ward was a late addition to MB’s board, so at least one or two significant bets have been placed on him, and the appeal of this pick beyond the outstanding value is that the formula for a Ward MVP is simple.

The only time a safety has won MVP honors in this game was when Jake Scott did so for the Miami Dolphins waaaaaay back in Super Bowl VII to cap the Fins’ perfect season. Scott simply picked two passes while his quarterback threw for just 88 yards in the victory of a 1-point (!) favorite. Grabbing two interceptions against Patrick Mahomes, who’s thrown just five interceptions in 16 games this season? Yeah, that’d probably get Ward the MVP trophy…

–written by Os Davis

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Proposition betting: We’re guessing the first play of Super Bowl LIV is…

Tuesday, 28 January 2020 11:39 EST

NFLbets has no sense of humor about most special props offered on the Super Bowl; what exactly the public fascination with losing money on the coin flip, national anthem performance or color of Gatorade dumped on the winning head coach is, we have no clue – but rest assured that the bookmakers won’t be taking our money on these inanities this year or ever.

It’s like, you know Barnum’s old aphorism, “there’s a sucker born ever minute”? You know the expression “sucker’s bet”? Yeah, well, that’s what those kinda BS props are.

Having said (written?) that, NFLbets admits that our bet in the prop “49ers vs Chiefs – First offensive play from scrimmage” is based purely in instinct and a favorable line. “Run play” is currently listed on My Bookie at odds of -145, while “pass play” is paying out at +115. That’s right: NFLbets is advising that Super Bowl bettors take Pass Play in the First Offensive Play From Scrimmage prop at those nice odds.

Can we possibly justify making what resembles a serious throwaway bet at all? Let’s try.

On the Kanasas City Chiefs sideline is Andy Reid, and we suppose you may have heard that Reid is probably the greatest NFL head coach never to win the Super Bowl yada yada yada. More importantly, the dude is armed (so to speak) with a QB who’s the most athletically gifted we’ve seen in the ’Bowl in years, if not ever. In 16 starts this season, Patrick Mahomes has begun the game with a pass seven times and in the AFC Championship game against the Tennessee Titans, the first play call was an option which had Mahomes on the run.

What’s truly amazing in that on the aforementioned 16 games, the Kansas City offense’s *second* play from scrimmage has been a pass 15 times. The Chiefs game plan for the opening series of the first quarter is, half the time, have Damien Williams or LeSean McCoy hit the line for a yard or two, followed by Mahomes throwing again. If you can get a prop on KC’s second play, that’s a no-brainer.

For the San Francisco 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo has shown gunslinging skills and, as mentioned elsewhere on NFLbets, has lead his team to a 11-2 SU mark when throwing more than 21 passes and 4-2 SU when getting over 240 passing yards – but even when he’s not playing possum as in the first two playoff games, Jimmy G has always started slow. Just twice in 18 games has he begun the proceedings with a pass play: in weeks 14 and 16 against the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams, respectively. However, in both cases, the 49ers offense got the ball only after a clock-killing, TD-scoring drive by the opposition. This makes perfect sense when running with a ridiculously effective RB-by-committee such as the 49ers do.

But if there’s one guy that’s capable of overthinking this game, it’s Kyle Shanahan. (Chiefs backers are meanwhile concerned about Andy Reid *under*thinking things…) He’s already admitted to the “humbling” experience as an Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator in helping throw away a 25-point third-quarter lead against the Patriots through lack of adjustments in the game plan to the actual, likesay, game situation. And NFLbets is convinced that limiting Garoppolo to 27 attempts in the postseason thus far is Shanahan’s attempt at ta smokescreen covering his desire to air it out, particularly over the middle where the Chiefs pass D is weakest.

Recall Shanahan Sr., whose multiple Super Bowl appearances with the Denver Broncos always seemed to begin with John Elway launching on 50 yards or more, as well. Why wouldn’t we think that the mentally-churning Shanahan the Younger, knowing his offense is decidedly lower-watt and will inevitably be playing from behind, trying to outfox Reid with the unexpected early?

Okay, so this isn’t the strongest reasoning or the best bet that NFLbets’ll be making for Super Bowl LIV, but look at it this way: At least we’ll have this one won/lost nice and early…

–written by Os Davis

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AFC Conference Championship Betting: Derrick Henry, +7½ may be too much…

Thursday, 16 January 2020 16:21 EST

Welcome to the 2020 AFC Championship Game, an NFL bettor’s nightmare thanks to the surprise presence of Tennessee Titans and Derrick Henry, the scariest unstoppable force at RB since Bo Jackson was stomping dudes. Using numbers alone, the visitors should be getting even more points in the line…

Tennessee Titans +7½ at Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 53½ points

I mean, we’re talking the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs here, right? The Chiefs are on a 7-0 SU (6-0-1 ATS) run Including the insanity that was the Chiefs’ 51-31 win over the Texans in the divisional which incidentally has Kansas City on a 51-7 run going into this week.

Characterizing the Chiefs defense as the team’s weak point is well-mentioned enough to have become cliché, but isn’t quite100% accurate. True that in the regular season, the K.C. D surrendered 32.5 points points per game against playoff teams – including the 35-32 loss to the Titans in week 10 – but so what? The Chiefs went 4-2 SU/ATS in those games. A look at Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric should be enough to scare most NFL bettors away from taking the Chiefs minus the points: 14th overall, 6th against the pass and … 29th against the run.

And here comes Derrick “Bad” Henry.

All Bad Henry did in that week 10 matchup in Nashville was go for 2 TDs on 23 carries for 188 yards: about *8.2 yards per carry*. Remove his 68-yard breakaway and Henry was still good for 5.5 ypg against a flummoxed Chiefs front. Geez, the Baltimore Ravens were stacking the box with eight and he still tore ’em up for 195 yards on 30 totes. Henry’s performance in this game is the X-factor, the Y-factor and the rest of the alphabet-factor.

And that’s where the numbers break down. The Titans are rolling on intangibles, willpower and a QB who’s somehow 6-0 SU/ATS when he throws for less than 200 yards in the game – including, yes, the week 10 game. Further, Ryan Tannenhill and Tennessee went for less than 90 total passing yards in playoff wins against the defending champion New England Patriots and no. 1 seed 14-2 Ravens. For the entirety of 2019-20, starting QBs with 90 or fewer passing yards were 4-12 SU (though 7-9 ATS) – and one of those wins was by the Ravens in a week 17 throwaway; the other was by the Arizona Cardinals against the New York Jets. So, yeah.

The truth is, we may have to go off numbers on this one. Rarely has NFLbets enjoyed losing bets on a game as much this season as when watching the Titans handle the Ravens last week. (Whoa, was the Texans-Chiefs game brutal for those crazy enough to cover Houston in any capacity…) Mike Vrabel designed quite frankly kickass game plans and hopefully did not literally have to perform any sort of phallic mutilation to do so. The Titans OL ranks no. 4 in run blocking DVOA, and they’re certain to push around their Kansas City counterparts for Henry again.

Finally, NFLbets could just write off Henry’s recent unprecedented run – in the last three games, 32 carries for 196.0 yards per plus four touchdowns – as an outlier on borrowed time. But frankly, we’re scared of the man. We’re going to take the Tennessee Titans +7½ at Kansas City. And with the weather expected to be in the 20s but no precipitation, we’ll say take the over on an O/U of 53½ points.

(For those of you into betting longshots, NFLbets will likely throw a few moneys at the Titans ML at a nice +255, but we won’t call that a proper “Best Bet.”)

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 0-6.
NFLbets this season, all recommended bets: 65-50-1.

–written by Os Davis

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Odds to win 2019-20 Super Bowl LIV | SuperBowl 54 | SuperBowl 2020

Monday, 06 January 2020 20:04 EST

Odds to win 2019-20 Super Bowl LIV

 

San Francisco 49ers    +2

Kansas City Chiefs       -2

Total 55

 

Super Bowl 54: Odds to win

Team                           Odds - updated as of Jan. 17th, 2020

San Francisco 49ers     2.2/1

Kansas City Chiefs        2.5/1

Green Bay Packers        7/1

Tennessee Titans         7.5/1

 

Super Bowl 54 Date: (2/2/20)

Team                           Odds - updated as of Jan. 6th, 2020

Baltimore Ravens         2/1 

San Francisco 49ers     7/2

Kansas City Chiefs        7/2

Green Bay Packers        7/1

Seattle Seahawks         12/1

Minnesota Vikings       18/1

Houston Texans           30/1

Tennessee Titans         30/1

Why Bet on NFL Futures?

One of the most popular and often asked questions by anybody and everybody is; "Who you like to win the Superbowl?" 

As an American having a team never changes, but who and where you'll put your money on changes “Any Given Sunday”.

The Futures market for the NFL is always open. The opening market is set by oddsmakers after the following season has ended in February, sometimes even while the current season hasn’t been completed yet in late January. For the most part, the initial betting lines are mirrored based on what the current perception of the team is after the latest season and that’s where the value can be had. Like all markets if you know when to by low with a higher expected value you should jump on it. Maybe you need to bet on 10 teams at higher odds but the return can greatly out reward if you bet on the favorite early only to see them bust out in the first round. IE. betting on the New England Patriots would have brought tears to your eyes if you bought last week or even last summer as they were favorites all along and went out in the opening round to the Tennesee Titans while at home.

The Pat's certainly did not dissapoint during the regular season going 12-5. Fortunate for other teams to have the Pats exit early and hopefully we crown a new Champ this season maybe one with 30-1 odds. 

                         

SuperBowl futures action can be found at MyBookie.com enter promo code NFLBETS:

NFL Playoff Preview - Odds to win 2019-20 Super Bowl LIV AKA (54)

Odds (Payout Per $100 Bet.)

Team                                 Odds - updated as of Dec.23rd, 2019

New England Patriots       +$300 (3 to 1)

Baltimore Ravens               +$500 (5 to 1)

San Francisco 49ers           +$700 (7 to 1)

Kansas City Chiefs              +$1,000 (10 to 1)

Green Bay Packers              +$1,200 (12 to 1)

Minnesota Vikings             +$1,600 (16 to 1)

Seattle Seahawks               +$1,600 (16 to 1)

Houston Texans                 +$4,500 (45 to 1)

Philadelphia Eagles           +$5,000 (50 to 1)

Buffalo Bills                         +$7,500 (75 to 1)

The Patriots before and after look after this year's playoffs:

 


Best bets – or at least compelling longshots – for NFL week 13

Friday, 29 November 2019 14:00 EST

Probably Thanksgiving, which this year featured another quality episode of the Jason Garrett reality sitcom plus the Benny Hill-esque sequence of three consecutive successful onside kicks by the Atlanta Falcons that’s got NFLbets tempted into covering some longshots in week 13’s three marquee games. So let’s get the insanity started with…

New England Patriots -3½ at Houston Texans

Patriots backers have reasonable cause for optimism here: During the tyrannical reign of the Dark Lord In Bill Belichick’s time as New England head coach, the Patriots are 8-1 SU (6-3 ATS) against Texans teams of all stripes. In this era, the Pats are also 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) at Houston, with the last meeting a 27-20 win over DeShaun Watson’s guys in week 1 of 2018.

But you know how NFLbets generally feels about history stretching back too far, i.e. such stats are fun to play with but mostly belong in halls of fame or museums. So we’ll learn back on our old favorite, regression to the mean.

The truth is that, going into the weekend, the Patriots are a nice 7-4 ATS, bettered only by the Buffalo Bills (8-4 ATS after the win at Dallas), New Orleans Saints (8-4 ATS after the win at Atlanta) and Arizona Cardinals (7-3-1 ATS). The Texans are a pedestrian 5-6 ATS, including a poor 1-4 ATS mark at home. These numbers all suggest to NFLbets that the pendulum is swinging away from New England and into the favor of Houston.

Now let’s talk that historically statistically incredible Patriots defense. Sure, numbers like “four passing TDs allowed in 11 games” are freakin’ bloody impressive, but just look at the schedule: The Pats have face one team – one! – currently at better than .500, and the was the playoff-bound Baltimore Ravens in week 9. In fact, the week 9 game represented the only week in which the Pats faced a top-10 offense and have enjoyed seven meetings with a bottom-12 offense. (OK, statistically the Cowboys are still a top-10 offense, but that 12-9 game in Foxborough may have represented the beginning of the statistical end for a side that might not even win the NFC East after all…)

Combine these numbers with the extremely poor performances the New England OL line has been turning in (they resemble the traditional Texans line more than anything) and the loooooooooooong list of injuries that Belichick is looking at, and we’ll back the healthier, more-driven Texans this week. Take the Houston Texans +3½ vs New England.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Seattle Seahawks

This one is relatively simple. Firstly, NFLbets strongly believes that these Seahawks could well be playing in this season’s NFC Championship Game – even if it requires beating the San Francisco 49ers three times in a single season. Russell Wilson may actually be more valuable to his team than is Lamar Jackson to the Ravens, though his stat line isn’t nearly as gaudy.

Exactly why the Carroll-Wilson combo isn’t hyped on the level of Belichick-Brady or at least Payton-Brees is beyond us – these Seahawks have pulled one W after another out their proverbial butts this season with half the talent (of the Saints, at least). Seattle has eight wins of 8 points or fewer, four wins of 3 points or fewer, and two OT victories.

Most compelling of all, though, is the incredible fact that the NFL’s second-biggest home field advantage of the last 10 years has led Seattle to an 0-4 ATS mark at home thus far in 2019. This anomaly simply makes no sense and should be eradicated this week. Take the Seattle Seahawks -3 vs Minnesota.

San Francisco 49ers +6 at Baltimore Ravens

That’s right: We’re backing the West Coast going east and the still-evolving Jimmy Garoppolo over the football machine Lamar Jackson: Take the San Francisco 49ers +6 at Baltimore.

We won’t be offended if you don’t side with us on this one: Our sub-.500 mark in these “Best Bets” speaks for itself – but just hear us out.

Unlike, likesay, the Bills and Patriots, the Ravens haven’t necessarily benefitted from an easy schedule. In the past five games, the Ravens have averaged a 24-point win in the past five games at Seattle, vs New England, at Cincinnati, vs Houston and at the L.A. Rams. (Interestingly, this 5-game ATS win streak chased a 5-game ATS losing streak run up in weeks 2-6.) Such wins are likely what’s keeping the line so high against a 10-1 SU club.

On the field, Lamar Jackson has captured the collective imagination of sports media and fandom alike was his electrifying, mutant statistic-generating play – stuff like how Jackson and the Ravens are 31st in pass attempts but *number 1* in passing TDs. Like how four times in 2019 has Jackson run for more yards than the opposition’s “skill players” combined, highlighted by a 152-33 outrunning of Cincinnati in week 6.

Baltimore’s defense meanwhile is a tad overlooked by the hypesters, particularly in this game. This is a top-10 unit in most areas, though the rushing defense stats (tops in attempts against, no. 3 in yardage allowed) can be deceiving because opposing teams so often are forced to go to the pass early in blowouts.

The truth is that the Ravens D has yet to face anything like the trio of Tevin Coleman, Matt Breda and Raheem Mostert. These three have created an old-fashioned rushing attack in 21st-century by-committee fashion, giving the 49ers the NFL’s no. 1 rushing offense – not to mention the no. 2 offense in scoring. And as is well-known, San Francisco is no. 2 in overall defense and defensive DVOA, but what’s going undiscussed is the reality that Jackson et al have faced one defense of note in 2019: the Patriots, whose own numbers are slightly suspect for reasons detailed in the Patriots-Texans writeup above.

The point of all this analysis and/or rambling is that the game appears a lot tighter than the public consciousness and this point spread would have us believe – and should finish with less than a touchdown difference. NFLbets loves the 10-1 “underdog” San Francisco 49ers here…

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 2-0.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 12-13.

–written by Os Davis

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NFL betting for week 2, one best bet, one pick of the week, one serious oultier

Sunday, 15 September 2019 11:20 EST

One of the best tips on poker ever is from … well, NFLbets forgets who said it first, probably Phil Ivey or one of those guys who hardly needs more free publicity anyway. Regardless, the sage advice insists that, when playing Texas Hold ‘Em, the player must always forget his/her cards immediately upon folding them.

The reasoning goes like so: Say you’re dealt J-7 of hearts, you fold, and the flop turns up A, K, Q of hearts. Should you take that crummy J-7 hand the least bit seriously, you may be tempted to stay in with that nonsense in the future – and lose repeatedly.

A similar principle can be applied to NFL/sports betting, i.e. The bettor must forget the teams from week to week – and medium- to long-term history can be utterly ignored.

Now don’t get us wrong: NFLbets is hardly of the History Will Teach Us Nothing philosophy; however, we have long since discovered (the hard way) that holding grudges and/or keeping to dogmatic beliefs literally do not pay.

For example, the NFL bettor should not forget the utterly awful performance turned in by Mitchell Trubisky and the Chicago Bears offense ¬– or the surprisingly fleet-looking Green Bay Packers defense, for that matter – in a brutal 10-0 spread-adjusted season-opening loss; such information will be useful if only for betting the under in Bears games going forward.

But.

One must not recall the doink-doink playoff loss in combination or separately from the Bears week 1 ATS loss, particularly if one had money on either side in either game. Thoughts of “The Bears always burn me when I bet on them” are extremely dangerous for the bankroll, and, lest one be tempted to counter any anti-Bears sentiment with Chicago’s league-best 12-5 ATS mark for 2018 (the New England Patriots went 12-7 ATS), just go ahead and throw that now-nearly useless information out, too.

Forgetting the particulars is bad; remembering historical, league-wide trends is good.

As a test of intestinal fortitude are a pair of bets which appear unscientific in the extreme, but simply answer to the cold, hard numbers. First, a relatively uncontroversial player prop bet…

NFL betting, week 2: Best Bets

Alvin Kamara, over/under 73½ rushing yards at Los Angeles Rams
NFLbets knows two things about Sunday’s Saints-Rams game: Zero close calls by the referee will go in the Rams’ favor, and Alvin Kamara should run up the stats.

While the Rams defense is certainly quite a bit better than the 27-point allowing unit seen last week at Carolina, no one on L.A. could stop Christian McCaffrey. Take away McCaffrey’s efforts, however, and Cam Newton has just 158 yards passing, the running game manages minus-1 total yards … and the Panthers score at least 14 fewer points.

Kamara filled a similar role for his Saints against another pretty good defense, that of the Houston Texans, going for 169 total yards including a single run of 28 and a reception of 41 yards. Fortunately, Drew Brees has one megaweapon more than Cam Newton, namely Michael Thomas, and thus is not nearly as dependent on his own backfield stud, but NFLbets’d give better odds on the Rams pass rush and secondary stifling Thomas’s numbers than on anyone shutting down Kamara at this point.

As for the game result, who knows? The Rams could blow ’em out of the Colosseum,the Panthers could win on a blown call, or anything in-between, beyond or reversed. But here’s to thinking that nothing short of an act of god (we’re discounting Aaron Donald as an actual literal deity-like being, though he may be) can stop Kamara. Take Alvin Kamara going over 73½ yards rushing at L.A.

NFL betting, week 2: Pick of the week

Jacksonville Jaguars +7½ at Houston Texans, over/under 43 points
And in the category of dominant individuals in the NFL circa 2019 we may place DeAndre Hopkins alongside McCaffrey and Kamara; double teams, triple teams – nothing mattered to the battery of Watson and Hopkins for Houston against, yep, *another* above-average defense.

Meanwhile, the sate of the Jacksonville defense is impossible to gauge after the Kansas City Chiefs whirlwind machine blew through town last weekend. The Chiefs ran up 40 points with ease, rapidly bringing a prideful defense to its boiling point with an ejection for Myles Jack and the apparent removal of Jalen Ramsey’s hand-eye coordination faculties.

And on the offense – could Magic Nick Foles just have been magicked out of a job by the legend Gardner Minshew II. All this über-system QB did last week was throw 25 on-target passes, 22 of them complete for 275 yards and 2 TDs against just one interception.

Now.

NFLbets is not going to get caught up in the Minshew II stories, hilarious and/or compelling as so many of them are, but will ask for a memory-check on just how many times a fill-in rookie QB – particularly late-draft round rookies – has fooled opposing defenses who haven’t enough tape. Call it the Tim Tebow Principle and damn does NFLbets need to go back and crunch some numbers of this soon.

In any case, the Jaguars and Texans defenses alike should certainly look better than last week, but the latter we reckon will bring just enough surprises. As for the latter, we’ll figure that All-Pro acquisition Laremy Tunsil will show at least a slight improvement to the Texans’ six sacks surrendered against the Saints after another week with the team – and that’ll mean Houston will bring very much Hopkins along with some runs from DeShaun Watson. Here’s to thinking we’re going to see some touchdowns in this one. Take the Saints-Texans game to go over 43 points.

NFL betting, week 2: Outlier of the week

First, consider the facts.

• Since 2000, just seven NFL games (regular season or playoffs) prior to this one have carried a pointspread of 19 or more. The underdog is, predictably enough, 0-7 SU in those games – but are nevertheless 6-1 ATS.

• The sole ATS win while giving 19 or more points came in 2013, when the eventual champion Seattle Seahawks covered an incredible (but ultimately justifiable) 20½ against the eventual 4-12 SU Jacksonville Jaguars in a 45-17 win.

• Four of the seven big-pointspread games involved the Belichick/Brady Patriots, but *three* of these came in the 2007 season. Regardless, note that New England is 0-4 ATS in those games – despite a reputation solidified in ’07 for running up the score in blowouts.

• Finally, in these seven games, home underdogs are … 0-0-0 ATS.

We need these facts in order to consider – ahem, not NFLbets or anything, but only the, likesay, foolhardy – betting on New England Patriots -19 at Miami Dolphins.

For NFL bettors foolish enough not to stay away from this one, the decision will be based on how seriously he/she takes facts no. 2, 3 and 4. On one hand, these Patriots certainly look like at least a Super Bowl contender and the Dolphins look at absolute best a 4-12 team. On the other hand, Belichick could damn well take the foot off the pedal with a 35-7 lead at halftime, bench 42-year-old Tom Bardy for much of the second half and coast while Miami racks up garbage-time points in front of about 2,000 fans in the fourth quarter.

On the other other hand, homefield’s gotta mean something, right? The Patriots with Brady at Miami are just 7-11 SU, after all, including the memorable New England at Miami game of last season, which would have seen the Dolphins win ATS regardless of the rugby play which gave them the SU win.

But one final point: The 2019 Miami Dolphins may be historically bad, and NFLbets believes this team is certainly capable of losing by at least three TDs to the Patriots right now, home or now.

In the final analysis, in no way can NFLbets recommend a play either way on this one. Outliers such as this with no precedent are essentially straight-up gambles and we stay away from pure gambling (it’s why we don’t play fantasy football). One final fun fact: On the sole other occasion in the modern era in which a home team faced such a ’spread, the Walsh/Montana 49ers could not cover an insane 23 points against the ultimately 3-12 SU Atlanta Falcons in 1987.

I mean, not to make things more difficult for you or anything…


Super Bowl LIV winner proposition bet odds

Wednesday, 21 August 2019 13:15 EST

Ah, yes – the incredible, inexorable and irresistible pull of the preseason NFL team proposition bet! Particularly alluring is the siren’s call of the Super Bowl winner prop, which all but the sharpest of sharps should admit is essentially gambling. Who can resist throwing a few moneys at one’s favorite team or a nice longshot that banks a great return and potentially viralizes the story? After all, some NFL bettors covered the Philadelphia Eagles at 40/1 and even 50/1 prior to the 2017 season…

So, sure, NFLbets’ll be wagering on the Super Bowl LIV winner, but you damn skippy we won’t be betting the house on any team. The odds table running below lists odds from leading online sportsbook My Bookie and odds offered at the average Las Vegas sportsbook, respectively. Note that Vegas offerings are far less fluid than their online counterparts’: Lines on the Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts and Cleveland Browns have all seen noticeable shrinkage since these odds first dropped in February. (Odds up-to-date as of August 20, 2019.)

Odds to win Super Bowl LIV

Super Bowl LIV winner prop betKansas City Chiefs, 6/1; 6/1
New England Patriots, 6/1; 8/1
New Orleans Saints, 9/1; 8/1
Los Angeles Rams, 12/1; 8/1
Cleveland Browns, 12/1; 20/1
Indianapolis Colts, 12/1; 20/1
Philadelphia Eagles, 13/1; 20/1
Los Angeles Chargers, 15/1; 14/1
Chicago Bears, 16/1; 14/1
Dallas Cowboys, 20/1; 16/1
Green Bay Packers, 22/1; 16/1
Pittsburgh Steelers, 25/1; 14/1
Minnesota Vikings, 25/1; 16/1
Atlanta Falcons, 30/1; 40/1
Houston Texans, 33/1; 20/1
Carolina Panthers, 35/1; 60/1
Seattle Seahawks, 37/1; 30/1
San Francisco 49ers, 40/1; 50/1
Baltimore Ravens, 45/1; 20/1
Jacksonville Jaguars, 50/1; 40/1
New York Jets, 70/1; 80/1
Tennessee Titans, 90/1; 60/1
Denver Broncos, 100/1; 60/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 100/1; 80/1
Buffalo Bills, 100/1; 100/1
Detroit Lions, 100/1; 100/1
Oakland Raiders, 125/1; 100/1
New York Giants, 145/1; 40/1
Arizona Cardinals, 150/1; 100/1
Washington, 150/1; 100/1
Cincinnati Bengals, 180/1; 100/1
Miami Dolphins, 200/1; 300/1

Onto the takes – and tips!

Kansas City Chiefs: Best hedge on the board

NFLbets begins the wagering with MyBookie’s co-favorites and Vegas’s odds-on favorite. Normally, we’d eschew the top pick on the Super Bowl table because a) the odds are too short and b) examples of underdogs taking the title are rife.

In 2019, however, the top-dog Chiefs are going off at 6/1, more than reasonable for a team that appears to be on the classic ’Bowl-winning trajectory. RBs Spencer Ware and Kareem Hunt are gone, taking 1096 yards rushing along; after a fairly brutal 2018, Carlos Hyde joined Kansas City this offseason and … ah, never mind – we’re talking about Patrick Mahomes’s team here and the Chiefs ranked just 16th in rushing attempts last season. And check this out: How many changes did the Chiefs make on the offensive side this past offseason? Zero.

Meanwhile, the new defensive coordinator is apparent upgrade Steve Spagnuolo (formerly of the New York Giants), though quite honestly Mike Pence would have been a certain improvement for a D ranked dead-last or dead-penultimate by most key statistical measures.

With an average rushing attack and a pretty bad defense, Andy Reid still got Mahomes & the boys to the AFC championship game. If one contender doesn’t regress in 2019, this is likely that team. We’ll say take the Kansas City Chiefs at 6/1, thereby allowing us five other bets with the opportunity to still break even on K.C.

Chargers, Saints, Cowboys: Don’t lose money on these three

Beyond the top two, the NFL bettor considering the Super Bowl LIV winner prop soon lands upon the New Orleans Saints at 9/1 (or 8/1 in Vegas), Los Angeles Chargers at 15/1 (14/1), and the Dallas Cowboys at 16/1 (20/1) – bad bets one and all, simply put.

First up are the Saints, whose darling status twice crested last season, first when 173-year old QB Drew Brees broke some individual record on Monday Night Football and later when a blind referee screwed them in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship Game. But just take a closer look at some of the stats as 2018 wore on…

In his final seven starts last season including the two playoff games, Brees passed for over 300 yards just once and couldn’t manage to break 200 in four more; in those game, New Orleans managed to win five SU while going just 2-5 ATS. Note that Brees will be taking snaps from a new center, i.e. free-agent signing Marcus Henry from the Seattle Seahawks and, while TE Jared Cook and RB Latavious Murray *might* make an impact, the clever bettor will definitely expect regression to the mean from this team.

As for that on-again/off-again defense of ’18, some 10 signings in free agency spun forecasting this side of the ball in New Orleans the purview of chaos theorists. We’ll be staying away from the Saints.

Did we say “regression to the mean”? The 2018 Los Angeles Chargers were statistically freakish in many many ways, but off-the-charts bananas was their home-away split. In games played outside Los Angeles, the Chargers were a ridiculous 9-1 SU, including wins at Seattle, Kansas City, Denver and Baltimore. And who knows what might’ve happened in the divisional playoff in New England if the team hadn’t jetted from East Coast to West and back inside of a week after playing the Ravens. Can the Chargers be expected to reproduce those particular results? Unlikely to say the least.

On the plus side for Chargers backers is an easier schedule than in ’18: Beyond getting four ((((wins)))) games against the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos, NFLbets figures these guys are looking at four (or five, depending on how you feel about the Houston Texans): vs Indianapolis in the opener, at Chicago in week 8, and the two games against Kansas City – L.A. could even win the AFC West with a week 17 upset, but home field means little to these Chargers. We’re not feeling it.

As for the Dallas Cowboys … come on now. Yes, NFLbets realizes that the Ezekiel Elliott holdout melodrama is exactly that; Zeke will surely rejoin the Cowboys in due time, he’ll be productive barring an early injury due to lack of offseason training and will do amazing things. The promotion of Kellen Moore from QB coach to OC might even prove a boon to Elliott et al in getting Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper to play all-star seasons – but who outside of Cowboys fandom believes that’s enough?

Bears, Colts, Rams: Three bets we like more than the Chiefs

Odds on the defending NFC champion Los Angeles Rams at 12/1 (8/1), Chicago Bears at 12/1 (20/1) and Indianapolis Colts at 12/1 (20/1) all make NFLbets ask the same question: What are we missing here?

Okay, we’ll admit betting on the Colts at 12/1 is a bit dodgy, what with every month bringing news of a brand new injury to QB Andrew Luck; on the other (hopefully uninjured) hand, newly-acquired Chandarick West and WR Devin Funchess certainly can’t hurt an offense that was top-10 overall in passing yardage and overall yardage. Improvements to the skill positions plus losses of no full-time starter in free agency would be enough for a good value bet, but let us not forget that this team finished last season on a 10-2 SU run. Take the Indianapolis Colts at 12/1 – and absolutely definitely positively at 20/1.

And the Bears at that same 12/1 (20/1)? Bizarre. How did everyone forget Cody Parkey’s double doink to cost Chicago a deep playoff run after a 12-4 SU regular season with no losses of more than seven points. In the offseason, the Bears lost one key player – FS Adrian Amos – of a potential six from 2018’s world-beating, record-threatening, straight-up scary defense. And if you think a potential all-time great Khalil Mack can’t help win enough games in the days of point-a-minute offense to at least get his team to the Super Bowl, just ask Aaron Donald what he thinks.

And speaking (writing?) of Aaron Donald and his L.A. Rams, shouldn’t the conference defending champs be getting slightly more respect, particularly in Vegas at 12/1 odds…? Bettors at My Bookie have dragged down those odds from 10/1, but nevertheless in both spheres the, likesay, overhyped and downward-trending Saints are outdoing the Rams.

So … it’s all about Jared Goff, right? And sure, after that 105-point game against the Chiefs on MNF in week 11, the Rams offense got criminally low-watt in managing just 17.5 ppg in five games against playoff teams. Fair enough, but Goff’s favorite target Cooper Kupp is back after missing the last half of ’18 – and regardless of public perception of their QB, the Rams offense was top-3 in overall scoring, rushing TDs, first downs, yards per pass attempt, yards per rushing attempt and points per drive.

For 2019, the Rams defense looks just as impressive, as in-season acquisition Dante Fowler was extended and again disappointing Ndamokung Suh was not. We’d advise simply forgetting the name of the Los Angeles QB and take the Rams at 8/1 or longer.

Seahawks and Jets: A longshot and a really longshot

A tsunami of gushing about Bill Belichick has apparently swamped Pete Carroll’s reputation: Carroll fairly well rose to the consensus rank as no. 2 among head coaches after his Seattle Seahawks dismantled the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII – and he’s still got his Lombardi-winning all-star QB at the top of his game. Indeed, Carroll and Russell Wilson have made the Seahawks, even in the post-Legion of Boom era, a model of consistency in the NFC. In Wilson’s seven seasons at the helm, Seattle’s yet to have a losing season, making the playoffs six times.

The Seahawks have been undergoing something of a slow roster churn a la Belichick’s Patriots over the past four seasons or so; the departure of Earl Thomas represents the last of outgoing all-stars. Last season’s abominable 51 sacks allowed has got to improve with newly acquired guards Mike Iupati and Marcus Martin on the OL for 2019.

Now, Carroll & Co. still have the L.A. Rams and San Francisco 49ers to contend with before 37/1 odds to win Super Bowl LIV, while the playoffs have proven a stumbling block for Carroll’s ’Hawks since losing to the New England Patriots and the departure of Marshawn Lynch, with just a 2-3 SU/ATS postseason mark.

But say the Rams regress and the Niners aren’t quite up to the hype, so the Seahawks take the NFC West. Seattle’s famed homefield advantage – Carroll ‘n’ Russell are 5-0 SU/ATS in home playoff games – get them through one round, even two. (Heck, 12-4 could easily bag the no. 1 seed in the conference this season.) Imagine the season culminating in Carroll vs. Andy Reid with two minutes remaining. At 37/1 odds, we’ll take the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl and live that fantasy for a couple months at least…

Meanwhile, those wanting a serious stretch might consider covering the New York Jets at 70/1. NFLbets realizes such a wager is made in the face of loads of unknowns, chiefly that of Sam Darnold making The Leap, which may even be limited as the dude continues to resemble Vinny “Vinterception” Testaverde 2.0. Questions remain about the viability of LeVeon Bell (though we’d strongly hedge with the philosophy that Bell’ll rip shit up for the Jets in 2019) and the effect of losing Avery Williamson from last year’s 29th-“best” defense. Geez, these guys went 4-12 in ’18.

We’re not nutty enough to suggest covering the Jets to win the AFC East, mind you, but NFLbets will definitely be covering these guys to make the playoffs and you know what they say about anything happening during said playoffs; for confirmation consult last year’s Bears. Or Saints. Or Chiefs. Or…

So go ahead and join NFLbets in throwing a few moneys at a longshot – take the New York Jets at 70/1.