Ah, wasn’t the ending to the Cardinals-49ers game majestic? (We mean, for those holding the right tickets, of course.) With a line starting as high as Cardinals +12½, the game ultimately kicked off with a spread of Cardinals +9½ or +10 – a critical half-point difference, as it turns out. With the outcome of the game long settled and the 49ers winning by 4, a last-second fumble-six meant the Niners’d win by 10, causing lots of tickets to flip one way or the other.
It was the kind of backdoor cover that ignites chaos, which leads to mainstream media coverage of the story. It’s also an opportunity for NFLbets on every occasion to remind one of our principal tenets: If you see something good, bet it early. We were lucky enough to catch the Cardinals at +11 and thereby eke out the win.
Seeing as so apparently so many bet so much on various assortment of lines (how so many NFL bettors took bad beats, yet Vegas bookmakers simultaneously took lamentable losses is beyond us, but hey), NFLbets will call the game a tie in our adjusted results.
NFLbets’ roundup of week 11 results with scores adjusted for point spreads runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.
• Cleveland Browns 18, Pittsburgh Steelers 7. NFLbets’ takeaway after the whole Myles Garrett helmet-swinging incident? Even when the Browns win an important game, they still fuck it up.
• Arizona Cardinals 36 at San Francisco 49ers 36. NFLbets can’t possibly have been the only one to take the Cardinals at +10½ or more, can we? Jeez, My Bookie and other sportsbooks opened this line at 13½; somebody must have been betting it down to get to Cardinals +9½ at kickoff…
• New England Patriots 12½ at Philadelphia Eagles 10
• Baltimore Ravens 36½, Houston Texans 7. The Patriots are done! Tom Brady is too old and doesn’t have enough weapons on offense! Head coach Harbaugh is an old hand and has won Super Bowls! Hedge against any of the 31 teams you already bet on in the “To Win Super Bowl LIV” prop! Just kidding – yes, Lamar Jackson looks fantastic unto-unstoppable, but weren’t we saying that about Patrick Mahomes last year? And DeShaun Watson the year before…? Right now, NFLbets would bet on at very least three NFC playoff contenders minus a TD against the Ravens…
• Denver Broncos 23 at Minnesota Vikings 20. You think Broncos fans are dumbfounded by the Vikings’ record-setting comeback? Imagine all those who bet on the Vikings, then decided to hedge in live-betting during the second half, only to get burned again. D’oh!
• Buffalo Bills 30 at Miami Dolphins 20. Hardly surprising that the Dolphins got smoked in this one ATS: Buffalo has been beating up on bad teams all year, and Miami could hardly be expected to maintain a 4-0 ATS winning streak. NFLbets is just loving the Bills piling up the wins exactly like this in hopes of a nice small point spread for their 30-point loss in a wild-card game against the AFC South winner.
• Atlanta Falcons 32½ at Carolina Panthers 3. Forget the Falcons’ over-hyped 2-game win streak; far more intriguing is the way the defense has allowed just 9 and 6 points in those games since the bye – which really increases the degree of difficulty for next week’s game versus Tampa Bay.
• Dallas Cowboys 27½ at Detroit Lions 27. Prediction: The Lions’ last SU (and quite possibly ATS) win comes on Thanksgiving Day – and Matt Patricia will probably have signed a contract extension by the following Monday.
• Los Angeles Rams 12, Chicago Bears 7. The under is 13-6 combined in Rams and Bears games this year, and with their respective situations at quarterback, who expects this to change? Sheesh, the Bears-Lions game in a couple weeks could well set the mark for lowest-scoring Thanksgiving Day game ever.
• New Orleans Saints 28½ at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17. And on the flip side, you’ve got the Buccaneers, whose awesome combination of porous defense, quick wide receivers and one of the all-time great interception throwers has helped them hit the over in eight of 10 games this season – this against lines of 45.5 to 51. Heck, in this one, Tampa Bay managed two TDs and the over still hit by a ½-point. Let’s hope Jameis doesn’t sit until week 17 minimum…
• Indianapolis Colts 30½, Jacksonville Jaguars 13. Again, just do not touch these AFC South interdivisional games – totally not worth it. Next time you’re tempted, just double-down on the Bears under or Bucs under.
• Cincinnati Bengals 20½ at Oakland(/Las Vegas) Raiders 17. The best thing about the 2019 Cincinnati Bengals? While simultaneously tanking enough to land the no. 1 draft pick, the Bengals are playing craftily enough (or are getting taken well for granted enough) to cover double-digit spreads profitably enough from time to time: They’re a respectable 4-6 ATS.
• New York Jets 34 at Washington 16. ..and, SU win-loss record notwithstanding, are probably better than Washington.
• Kansas City Chiefs 18½, “Los Angeles” Chargers 17. After Phillip Rivers showed his age and gifted the Kansas City defense with five interceptions, NFLbets is ready for many to be suckered into believing that a very poor D has somehow turned the corner…