CFL Betting: Best bets and picks for week 11

23 August 2018

After two weeks’ worth of CFL betting columns, all NFLbets has managed thus far is to go 4-4 in combined “best bets” and “picks of the week.” At least we’ve made back some of the vig: Thanks to the +125 on a Toronto Argonauts money-line (ML) bet last week, we’re down just M65 (where M represents Moneys, the favored currency of NFLbets) for the 2018 CFL season.

NFLbets knows that’s a bit of a disappointment, particularly since we were on a 16-0 run for the year prior to beginning these columns – as far as you know.

As the halfway point passes, week 11 presents four games of all sorts of challenges. NFLbets considers the slate for week 11 as we attempt to earn back our money out there.

Edmonton Eskimos +3½ at Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Hamilton is tops in passing yards allowed per game and last in rushing yards allowed per game. C.J. Gable returns for the Eskimos after practice-squad player Shaquille Cooper went for 148 total yards and a TD in his first-ever CFL game as his team ran up 40. Of course, that was against the utterly hapless (hapmore?) Montreal Alouettes.

Hamilton topped Edmonton SU and ATS in week 2, 38-21, but are just 1-4 SU/ATS in their last five, in all four losses scoring 23 points or fewer. Until the Montreal game, the Eskimos offense hasn’t exactly been deep of depth chart (hence Cooper’s callup last week) recently, either; nevertheless, NFLbets thinks the Eskimos win this one outright, simply outscoring the puzzlingly self-destructive Tiger-Cats. Take the Edmonton Eskimos -3½  at Hamilton and take them to win SU at +145.

Toronto Argonauts -5½ at Montreal Alouettes. Johnny Manziel’s not playing for the Alouettes in week 11, thus making this game slightly more difficult for football bettors – but not that much more. After all, Antonio Pipkin is the starter for the Als, for an offense that went 3-of-15 on second downs last week. The Mighty Pipkin has one somewhat legitimate receiver – B.J. Cunningham – to throw to, and RB Tyrell Sutton may not go this week. And the defense … have you heard what Shaquille Cooper did to them last week? Just imagine what James Wilder Jr. might do (CFL daily fantasy players note). Take the Toronto Argonauts -5½ at Montreal.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers +8½ at Calgary Stampeders. Two teams whose bubbles burst last week: The high-risk defense of Winnipeg was torched for 44 points by Trevor Harris and the Ottawa RedBlacks fleet of WRs. Calgary gave up 40 (including one TD each from the Riders’ D and special teams) on the way to their first loss of the season. We’re willing to call that one a fluke and reckon the Stampeders win SU, but 8½ points is a lot to cover against a side recent-historically fond of the late-game comeback. We’re staying away from this one.

Saskatchewan Roughriders +2½ at BC Lions. A must-win: The Riders gain another game in the playoff hunt and are looking to surpass Winnipeg in the standings before long; BC cannot lose and fall two games behind the Riders. BC is trending down, while Saskatchewan is looking up after last week’s win.

But then there’s that late-night West Coast factor. NFLbets has been truthing about this BC Lions side for a while now and was a bit obsessed about the Lions’ inability to win under any other conditions – they’re 3-0 as such this season, 0-5 in all other games. So we went back to the 2017 results and noted that … these essentially same BC Lions (though currently without former CFL Most Outstanding Player Solomon Elimimian) were just 2-5 in Vancouver night games.

Our conclusion: BC Lions are set to regress to the mean. Also, the Riders are a better football team right now. Take the Saskatchewan Roughriders +2½ at BC and take the Riders +120 to win SU.

NFLbets’ best bets for CFL betting in week 11:
•  Edmonton Eskimos +3½ at Hamilton Tiger-Cats;
•  Toronto Argonauts -5½ at Montreal Alouettes; and
•  Saskatchewan Roughriders +2½ at BC Lions.

NFLbets’ recommendations for CFL betting in week 11:
•  Edmonton Eskimos win SU at Hamilton at +145; and
•  Saskatchewan Roughriders win SU at BC Lions at +120.

And check out this podcast. You’re still here? Great – yours truly can get in a shameless plug for the Rouge, White & Blue CFL Podcast, the American show about Canadian football. Download the latest episode directly below, or at iTunes and all those other podcast-download places online.