CFL Betting: Best bets and picks for week 15

21 September 2018

Last week, NFLbets saw very little good to bet on the tiny three-game CFL slate last week and so went a superweak 0-1 to bring our mark to 11-11 in CFL betting since covering the league in 2018. This week, a lot of solid opportunities appear to be out there, and so lots of bets may be made. Don’t know whether that’s a good thing…

Here’s this week’s (appealing) CFL schedule, with point spreads, over/unders and NFLbets’ recommendations.

Montreal Alouettes +10½ at Winnipeg Blue Bombers, over/under 54 points. If the Alouettes are double-digit underdogs, Johnny Manziel must be the starter! Indeed, ol’ Johnny Canadian Football is back for his third start of the season after doing concussion protocol and getting briefly Wally Pipped.

But you know what? Montreal’s starter at QB may not even matter, particularly ATS. The Bombers’ current tailspin of four consecutive losses has exposed the defense badly and has seen Winnipeg turn the ball over 14 times – two of those games were against the Big Green Defensive Machine in Saskatchewan, but still. The Bombers have been beating themselves for the past month.

The way NFLbets sees it, this game can only go two ways: Winnipeg realizes the talent gap and crushes, or Winnipeg bottoms out and even loses SU. NFLbets understands this isn’t very helpful, but one must always ask how many points the Als can score. They’re averaging 17 points per game and have topped 20 in five of 12 games this season. We say a lot of turnovers will keep both sides out of the end zone early and often. Take the under on an O/U of 54 points.

Edmonton Eskimos -2½ at Ottawa RedBlacks, over/under 53½ points. For pretty much their entire five-year existence, the RedBlacks have been utterly impossible to predict and so bank bets on; 2918 has proven no different.

Luckily, we do know some things about the Eskimos, like how they’re coming out of a bye week after a pair of titanic struggles against the CFL West-leading Calgary Stampeders. And that means, in typical recent Edmonton fashion, that the roster is coming into shape in time for the playoffs. Game-changing RB C.J. Gable was back at practice this week, is fairly well set to play, and should be the X-factor putting the Eskimos over the top. Take the Edmonton Eskimos -2½ at Ottawa.

Saskatchewan Roughriders -3 at Toronto Argonauts, over/under 51 points. Last week’s bet on the Roughriders was premised on the offense doing the absolute minimum to *assist* the defensive and special teams. Said DST after last week’s ATS/SU loss to Ottawa is now averaging 21.4 points, 1.6 interceptions, 2 QB sacks and 0.8 fumble recoveries per game over the past five.

In fact, last week’s 30-20 ATS loss by the Riders shows exactly what would happen when faced with an offense that takes care of the ball – an impressive zero turnovers and zero sacks allowed by the RedBlacks offense. QB Zach Collaros is a shell of a shell of his former self, and this Saskatchewan offense is somehow consistently unable to fully exploit the skills of the very talented RB duo of Tre Mason and Marcus Thigpen (unless one counts special teams contributions from the latter), nor WR Namaan Roosevelt.

But wow, that DST. Against arguably (depending on how you feel about Johnny Manziel) the worst starting quarterback in the league in McCloud Bethel-Thompson in a stadium which will likely have more Riders fans than Argos’? Here’s your CFL Pick of theWeek: Take the under on an O/U of 51 points.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats -2 at BC Lions. Here they are, the living embodiment of the Pacific Time Zone advantage. In 2018, the BC Lions are 4-1 SU/ATS in nighttime games in Vancouver, 1-5 SU/ATS.

To fight biochemistry, the Ticats are going in to BC shorthanded. Recently red-hot Alex Green left last week’s game injured and won’t play in this one. All-league WR Brandon Banks missed most practice this week, is questionable to play and certainly won’t be 100% if he does. Marquay McDaniel, signed to shore up a thinned-out WR corps, is also reportedly unready to play yet. Simply put, the Tiger-Cats did not want this game right now; how is Hamilton favored here…? Take the BC Lions to win SU against Hamilton at +120.

NFLbets’ best bets for CFL betting in week 15:
•  Saskatchewan Roughriders at Toronto Argonauts, under 51 points; and
•  BC Lions SU vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats at +120.

NFLbets’ recommendation for CFL betting in week 15:
•  Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers, under 54 points; and
•  Edmonton Eskimos -2½ at Ottawa Redblacks.

CFL best bets record to date: 6-5.
CFL recommendations record to date: 5-6.
Overall record: 11-11.