With two weeks remaining in the CFL season, not one of the league’s six playoff spots has been determined. Seven of the league’s nine teams remain playoff viable, and five have clinched. Now *this* is playoff-level football, a major adrenaline rush for fans and bettors alike. (NFL and college football fans not in the know on the CFL don’t know what you’re missing.)
Most on their seats’ edges – other than the bettors and fantasy football players, that is – are the Edmonton Eskimos and their fans. While drawing a bye in one of the last two weeks of the season is thought to be a fairly substantial advantage in most cases, but the unlucky Eskimos can be eliminated with a Winnipeg Blue Bombers win.
Of course, the Bombers are playing the Calgary Stampeders, who again only need a win to clinch top spot in the West and thus homefield advantage. Suddenly, the ever-invincible Stamps of the 2010s seem quite vincible indeed: They enter this week on an 0-3 run ATS (1-2 SU). Nipping at Calgary’s heels are the Saskatchewan Roughriders, who took out the Stampeders for the second time in 2018 in week 19. Chris Jones’s Riders play their last regular-season game against BC Lions, who are an awful 1-7 SU (3-5 ATS) as visitors.
And the East? Don’t even get NFLbets started. After trading the lead black and forth through much of the season and neither taking the initiative to seize control, the Ottawa Redblacks upset the Tiger-Cats in Hamilton last week to get the season series to 1-1 and set up this week’s rubber match.
Fascinating stuff all, but let’s talk some tangibles vis-à-vis betting CFL games this week.
Calgary Stampeders +3 at Winnipeg Blue Bombers, over/under 53 points. American CFL fans and Canadian NFL fans tend to equate the Stampeders of the 2010s to Belichick/Brady’s New England Patriots. Similar in tactical craftiness, the steady and clutch QB, plug-and-play personnel schemes and, most importantly, all bring to mind those insufferable (though not infrequently lucrative) Patriots. Minus all the various ’Gate scandals, of course.
If this comparison is valid, then the 2018 Calgary Stampeders may be equated with the 2006 New England Patriots, i.e. holding a roster with all the parts except the wide receivers. Bo Levi Mitchell is doing what he can with the likes of Eric Rogers and one or two practice squad callups, but even Tom Brady was limited with Reche Caldwell as a go-to guy.
On the other side are the Blue Bombers suddenly seemingly miraculously having pulled themselves out of a death spiral of a mid-season four-game losing streak, including dropping two the Roughriders – except it ain’t that miraculous. Here’s a few really simple stats that define the 2018 Winnipeg Blue Bombers:
• With Weston Dressler on the active roster this season, the Bombers are 9-3 SU and a fantastic 11-1 ATS. Without him, they are 0-4 SU/ATS; guess which four games he didn’t play.
• With Weston Dressler in the lineup, the Bombers score 33.33 points per game. Without him, they score 24.25 per.
Figuring in that the Stamps haven’t topped 33 since week 16, the last time breakout WR Reggie Begelton suited up, Calgary enters a CFL game as an underdog for the first time since mid-2016. With good reason(s), says NFLbets. Take the Winnipeg Blue Bombers -3 vs Calgary. You’ll also want to consider taking the over on an O/U of 53 points – but remember that this is Canadian football: Do *not* ignore the weather and check the forecast as close to game time as possible. In general, precipitation means fewer points.
Ottawa Redblacks +3½ at Hamilton Tiger-Cats, 53½. NFLbets’ll make this simple: Stay away from this point spread. These two teams have been far too erratic to dependably bet upon at all: The longest winning or losing streak SU or ATS either side has had was the three wins – two against the beatdog Toronto Argonauts – Hamilton somehow strung together in weeks 11 to 13. (And even on that run, the Ticats were 2-1 ATS!)
NFLbets would therefore be tempted to play the inconsistency, stick with the home team and take the reverse of last week’s result to bet the Hamilton Tiger-Cats ML. But that bet on the Kitties pays at just -180 – not at all worth it on these guys. Give the points? Yeah, right. Each team has been involved three times in games when the SU winner couldn’t cover the spread.
The best bet here – in fact, yes, NFLbets will officially recommend that NFL bettors take the under on an O/U of 53½ points. The single compelling reason here: WR Brandon Banks is out for the remaining two games. One of the CFL’s biggest weapons downfield, Banks is the prototypical field-stretching receiver and reduces Jeremiah Masoli’s options drastically while giving the Redblacks defense an assist by allowing them to stifle Luke Tasker.
No matter who loses wins this one, we reckon it’ll be done on defense.
NFLbets’ best bets for CFL betting in week 20 (part 1):
• Winnipeg Blue Bombers -3 vs Calgary;
• Calgary at Winnipeg, over 53 points; and
• Ottawa Redblacks at Hamilton Tiger-Cats, under 53½ points.
CFL best bets record to date: 9-8.
CFL recommendations record to date: 10-9.
Overall record: 19-17.
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