NFL week 2: Final results ATS (And I Feel Fine)

18 September 2018

If indeed the Jacksonville Jaguars’ week 2 win really finally indicates the twilight of the Belichick/Brady New England Patriots, NFL bettors will be among those not sad to see them fade. Almost uninterruptedly since the miracle 2001 season, these Patriots have been incredibly consistent ATS, as though Bill “The Dark Emperor” Belichick is seeking to stymie the gambles along with his NFL competition. A look back through recent history shows that Vegas has been awaiting the Patriots’ demise for a couple years now.

In the past two seasons, the Patriots have been nearly as dominant ATS as they’ve been on the field. In 2017, the Pats were an NFL second-best 11-5 ATS (and 13-3 SU) and in ’16, Brady’s bunch were tops at 13-3 ATS (14-2 SU). We can chalk this up to increasingly shorter spreads on New England as the bookie vultures circle.

Given reputation-sized point spreads for most of the 2010s, the B&B Patriots look positively mundane from a bettor’s perspective: In 2015, they were 7-5-3 ATS (13-3 SU); in ’14, 9-7 ATS (12-4 SU); in ‘’13, 7-8-1 (12-4 SU) … you get the idea.

As for the playoffs, first here’s the inevitable Jim Mora clip…

And here’s the sick story to go with: These Patriots are a mere 3-5 in Super Bowls – and the win against the Seattle Seahawks went off as a “pick ’em” decided on a play call by Pete Carroll still dubbed a top 10 worst ever. Since the New York Giants’ stunning upset of the undefeated Pats, New England is a weak 10-11 ATS in the playoffs (8-9 not counting Super Bowls), including a 3-0 run culminating in the overtime Super Bowl win against the Atlanta Falcons.

NFLbets is already setting aside bankroll to bet on the no. 3 seed Patriots at 9-7 SU to crush the, likesay, Cleveland Browns in the first wild-card playoff game. After that, we’ll roll over the winnings to bet it all against the Patriots when they draw the Kansas City Chiefs or Cincinnati Bengals in round two. After that, it should be bye-bye to the relevance of the Pats and NFLbets will feel happier.

Below runs a full list of results for week 2 in NFLbets’ preferred format, i.e. adjusted for the point spread; all results listed in boldface indicate games in which the SU and ATS results differed. Snarky comments courtesy Os Davis.

Cincinnati Bengals 33, Baltimore Ravens 23. Thanks to that Cleveland-Pittsburgh tie in week 1, NFLbets is coming to the realization that the Bengals are going to win this division and go far in the playoffs in a weak AFC.

Atlanta Falcons 25½, Carolina Panthers 24. The Falcons hang on to win ATS and already the NFC South makes no sense.

L.A. Chargers 23½ at Buffalo Bills 20. NFLbets still hasn’t had a change in mindset on the Bills, except that maybe now we believe the Cardinals are worse.

Dallas Cowboys 17, New York Giants 13. Hot take: The Dallas Cowboys are the best NFL team with a college playbook. For now.

Oakland Raiders 19 at Denver Broncos 14½. This could very well be the last win ATS for the Las Vegas Raiders until week 11 (at Arizona).

Green Bay Packers 29, Minnesota Vikings 27. Can we all now go back to betting Aaron Rodgers (even a crippled Aaron Rodgers) and the Packers as home underdogs? Good.

Jacksonville Jaguars 31, New England Patriots 18½. In one of the most impressive wins in recent Jaguars history, LT Cam Robinson left due to injury. Short golden era there.

Cleveland Browns 27 at New Orleans Saints 21*. No offense to Browns fans, but NFLbets doesn’t care too much about Zane Gonzalez – Cleveland is 2-0-0 ATS in 2018, and we’ve covered them both times.

Miami Dolphins 20 at New York Jets 9. [Rod Serling voice] For your consideration, a world in which the New England Patriots are not atop the AFC East standings … you have entered The Twilight Zone!

Tennessee Titans 20, Houston Texans 13½. Four sacks of DeShaun Watson make it seven for the season. As we woefully realize how terrible the Texans OL is, we wonder if the Houston brain trust will ever put together a complete team…

Kansas City Chiefs 42 at Pittsburgh Steelers 33. Of note: The over/under on this game was 54½, a good five points higher than other O/U in week 1; this was covered by 24½. Pat Mahomes and this KC O will be great over-coverers all year long…

L.A. Rams 21½, Arizona Cardinals 0. …as will Todd Gurley and the Rams – if they face anyone who can score points, that is.

Detroit Lions 27 at San Francisco 49ers 24. Yet another scoreboard-spinning (not to mention coronary-inducing) team is the 49ers. A risk-taking offense and a generous defense makes San Francisco a bit dicey going forward.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Philadelphia Eagles 18. So much for the NFLbets Best Bet of Week 2. Maybe you *should believe the hype on Tampa Bay...?

Indianapolis Colts 21 at Washington 3. If it were up to NFLbets, we’d ignore the Washington NFL team, their bithc of an owner and their racist team name altogether. Games like this really help that cause.

Chicago Bears 19½, Seattle Seahawks 17. One more overreaction: We might just get three playoff teams from the NFC North this season – once Aaron Rodgers’s leg completely falls off, that is.