NFL Week 7 results ATS: Homefield disadvantage

22 October 2019

Rough week for home teams, eh? In week 7, the visitors were a big 9-4-1 Against The Spread (ATS) and San Francisco might’ve made it 10-3-1 had not conditions been so ridiculous in Washington. For weeks 8 and 9, NFL bettors will definitely want to keep an eye on this week’s four home winners: Washington, Indianapolis, Dallas and Green Bay; all except Washington will likely receive exaggerated point spreads.

NFLbets’ roundup of week 7 results with scores adjusted for point spreads runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

• Kansas City Chiefs 27 at Denver Broncos 6. Playing in Denver may be an advantage in the actual games themselves, but it’s strictly Rocky Mountain Low ATS: Since 2005, Elway’s guys are second-worst in the league ATS, “topped” only by the Oakland Raiders, whose record in this stat should really reset to 0-0 as the Las Vegas Raiders. Thus far this year, the Broncos are a surprising 3-1 ATS at home but this loss is probably the first of, likesay, five in 2019.

• Green Bay Packers 36½, Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders 24. And speaking of the Raiders, Chucky & Co. fell to Aaron Rodgers’s fantasy fantasy football day. Nothing makes any NFL bettor or fan await the following Sunday like a statistically bombastic performance by a quarterback which elicits GOAT conversations. Already NFLbets is leaning against the Packers next week, with their surely bloated point spread.

• Baltimore Ravens 30 at Seattle Seahawks 13. Then there’s Lamar Jackson and his Baltimore Ravens whupping Russell Wilson’s guys in Seattle. Watch the hype on the Ravens this week. Watch Wilson’s odds in the “To Win NFL MVP” proposition bet widen. And watch Baltimore lose and Seattle win ATS next time out.

• Miami Dolphins 21 at Buffalo Bills 14. “How about them DOLPHINS?!?!?!??!!!” said no one in 2019.

• Los Angeles Rams 34 at Atlanta Falcons 10. How much longer can Dan Quinn possibly hold onto his job based on “we took the Patriots to overtime in that one Super Bowl”? NFL bettors hope he stays on a little longer as Atlanta head coach, because at 1-6 ATS, the Falcons have been a pleasure to bet against all season long. Some goes for Doug Pederson over there in Philadelphia.

• Dallas Cowboys 34, Philadelphia Eagles 10. The Cowboys are for real! No, they aren’t! Yes, they are! (The truth is that Dallas is 3-0 SU/ATS against the NFC East, 1-3 SU/ATS against all others.) As for the Eagles, at least they’ve got no worries about their so-called competition catching them. To wit:

• Arizona Cardinals 27 at New York Giants 17½. How does a team allow 27 points on 260 total yards of offense? Also, how does an offensive line allow eight sacks?

• Washington 10, San Francisco 49ers 9. As the 49ers were favored by 10 in this game, NFLbets seriously considered posting a spread-adjusted score of minus-1 to zero, which was probably the total number of net yards each team managed in the first half of this slogfest. Here’s to hoping you banged the under when you saw/read about these field conditions.

• Indianapolis Colts 28½, Houston Texans 23. Yep, NFLbets regrets not one iota the decision to avoid betting on these AFC South interdivisional games…

• Minnesota Vikings 39½ at Detorit Lions 30. NFLbets had the Lions pegged for the NFL’s trap team in 2019, i.e. that team which gets off to an overachieving first-half start against an easy schedule, only to tip the crowded bandwagon by losing, likesay, five of the last six games. But it seems the Lions will begin losing long before the homestretch after all.

• New Orleans Saints 36 at Chicago Bears 21. Considered the fickleness of fandom and the short-term memory of sports media, NFLbets is rather surprised that no one’s suggesting a quarterback controversy brewing in New Orleans.

• Jacksonville Jaguars 23 at Cincinnati Bengals 17. After eking out a victory against a winless team, folks are bullish on the Jags again? Come on…

• “Los Angeles” Chargers 20 at Tennessee Titans 20. Even if CBS tried to force feed this to audiences in Southern California, Arizona, Minesota and Hawaii, was anyone outside of Tennessee watching this game? For that matter, with a NASCAR race on a competing network, was anyone *in* Tennessee watching this game?

• New England Patriots 23½ at New York Jets 0. Was Adam Gase trying to save his job with a sense of humor in declining consecutive penalties in the fourth quarter? Busted NFLbets up, for sure…

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