So NFLbets is still trying to dig ourselves out of the unprofitable hole we’ve dug ourselves on these Best Bets thus far in 2019. To be fair, however, we are 4-3 in the past three weeks after making wagers we had no business placing so early in the season. (Think we’ll learn in time for next year? Ha!)
But we’re feeling as confident as ever, with a couple of seriously attractive lines in play on the NFL week 7 slate. NFLbets bets (so to speak/write) that we’ll be up after the dust settles on Monday night via wagering on…
This line started the week as Minnesota +1 until bettors hammered home the notion that the ’spread was silly and thus have kicked it down a full field goal in the other direction. NFLbets understands the hesitance of sportsbooks to make the Vikings bigger favorites, as both of these teams have been killing point spreads one-third of the way through the season.
Detroit is 4-1 ATS (2-2-1 SU) this season, putting the Lions among the top 4 in the stat, along with fellow overperformers the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1), San Francisco 49ers (4-1) and Buffalo Bills (4-1). Additionally, Detroit’s currently on a 4-0 run ATS as underdogs in every game; Matt Patricia and the Lions are also apparently employing a handful of dark magic spells, as few remain unamazed by this team’s ability to stay in games. The most incredible stat thus far from Detroit? No 2019 Lions game has been decided by more than 4 points, with the average margin of victory 2.2. The average 2019 Lions game thus far.
(And Detroit might even be 3-1-1 SU right now, good for top spot in a surprisingly tough NFC North, if the referees had been on their side against Green Bay last weekend. Not that NFLbets had the Lions in a pick ’em pool or anything…)
Meanwhile, the Vikings have suddenly emerged as the team that NFL bettors and fans alike have awaited for, likesay, three years. Minnesota has run up a 4-2 ATS/SU record, including a whopping 3-0 ATS/SU mark at home – including last week’s nice 24½-20 spread-adjusted win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week.
NFLbets doesn’t want to go small sample size here, but the Eagles game was demonstrative of a winning Vikings game plan going forward. Get Kirk Cousins an early lead so as to rely on that top-5 rushing (by committee); 30 rushing plays versus 29 passes turned out absolutely perfect for Minnesota, after all. The Lions defense looks vulnerable to such an attack, with below-average stats against the pass and bottom-10 against the run.
In fact, the single outstanding characteristic of Detroit’s game is the blitz-happy defense and its ability to get behind the line: The Lions are tops in tackles for a loss, rank 5th in turnovers and average 2.0 sacks per game. Cousins won’t tolerate serious pressure well – in losses to the rush-bringing Packers and Bears, Cousins was sacked 7 times and the offense produced 6 TOs, including two of Cousins’s three interceptions this year.
But you know what? The Lions D isn’t the Packers’ or Bears’. And though the Vikings’ offensive line ranks just 22nd in pass protection per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, they’ve protected Cousins well enough since the Minnesota WRs called out their QB for weak play – funny how that happens. Take the Minnesota Vikings -2 at Detroit.
NFLbets knows folks aren’t supposed to cheer for a player injury – though we suspect more than one DFS player is sociopathic enough – but those who bet on Russell Wilson in the “To Win NFL MVP” prop aren’t exactly in mourning over Patrick Mahomes missing a few weeks. (Do you realize that Wilson went off this season at 20/1 odds in this prop? Nice.)
And after getting past a scare or three to defeat the Browns in Cleveland last week, Wilson, Pete Carroll & Co. are certainly looking forward to drawing the Ravens in Seattle this Sunday.
At 4-2 SU (2-4 ATS), the Ravens aren’t exactly at the point of “reeling” yet, but the most impressive game these guys have played this season was a 33-28 loss to Mahomes’s Chiefs in week 3. Baltimore is 4-0 SU against losing teams, including Miami, Arizona and Cincinnati. The Ravens couldn’t cover the spread against the Steelers playing with a third-string QB, the Cardinals playing without a defense, and the Bengals playing without a team. NFLbets is certainly not expecting Baltimore to hang with this Seahawks team.
Even beyond the obvious eye-test qualities of Ravens at Seahawks, one stat should get NFL bettors to virtually run, not walk, to the nearest sportsbook. First, NFLbets will confirm that Seattle’s perceived homefield advantage is very real. From 2005 to 2018, the Seahawks ran up a quite incredible 72-50-6 mark ATS; this is bested only by – you guessed it – the New England Patriots at 75-48-5.
(Incidentally, a tangent here to slaughter a sacred cow: At 51-69-8, the Denver Broncos posted the third-*worst* record ATS over the aforementioned 14-year span. This is likely due to the perception that mile-high Denver provides such an innate advantage, and proper NFL bettors should now adjust mentalities accordingly.)
The key stat: The Seahwaks are 0-3 ATS in Seattle this year. This could be one of the easiest bets of the 2019: Take the Seattle Seahawks -3 vs Baltimore.
NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 1-1.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week this season: 5-8.
–written by Os Davis
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