Who’s ready for week 7? NFLbets is, as our Picks of the Week are beginning to consistently cash in – good thing we don’t believe in jinxes, eh? – and some good opportunities are out there for NFL bettors. This despite no Tampa Bay Buccaneers game; bang goes that weekly over bet!
We’ll print our Best Bets tomorrow, and the following are some other good Picks of the Week, games that we’re digging on not so much for the viewing but the potential winnings. Enjoy and good luck!
Prior to Monday Night’s game in which the Packers and Referees (oooooh, did he just say/write that?) squeaked by the Detroit Lions game, Green Bay was favored by as much as 7½ at mainstream sportsbooks. This line shed a full point after the MNF game, and by Friday 3pm ET, that line now reads Raiders +5½.
In terms of biological consideration, the advantage is all Raiders’. Oakland/Vegas is coming off a bye after the “home” game in London, while Green Bay is playing on a six-day week. Is that enough to balance some significant mismatches?
Completely viscerally speaking, NFLbets just doesn’t get any serious thinking devoted to the Raiders. Sure, they’re 3-2 SU/ATS and might even be, insanely enough, favorites to near-favorites to win the AFC West with Patrick Mahomes out.
However, the Vegas Raiders (sounds fantastic) were manhandled by their best competition, the Mahomes-led Chiefs and the Minnesota Vikings. They beat Denver, whose fall to the bottom of the West will be broken by the “Los Angeles” Chargers, and the Bears in a game which proves none of us should ever beat those U.K. games. The Colts game was a quality win, fair enough, but even after six weeks NFLbets is simply not yet buying these Raiders.
I mean, stats don’t lie, right? The truth is that these Raiders are not outstanding – or even well above average – in nearly every aspect of the game. Outstanding draft choice Josh Jacobs has the team in the top-10 in rushing yardage and yards per attempt. And Derek Carr, beyond his general weak statistics, has only thrown 3 interceptions in 161 attempts. While the latter could well be shut down by the Green Bay D (more on this momentarily), the former may be the Raiders’ sole chance at the upset win (or even the ATS win, for that matter).
Green Bay is in general enjoying their best year defensively since the glory days of Brett Favre. The turnover differential has been particularly excellent: Six different players have already notched at least one interception along with six fumbles forced. Carr has run up his nice interception ratio against inferior pass Ds, rather than the Packers’ ballhawks.
(Incidentally, as good as Carr’s efficiency has been, Aaron Rodgers has lost just 2 interceptions against *219* attempts.)
In the final analysis, then, simply nothing indicates that the 1-1 ATS Raiders can keep this to within a touchdown; this might even get ugly. Take the Green Bay Packers -5½ vs the Raiders.
Okay, NFLbets feels your skepticism already; we’ll increase it even further by spoiling that we’re going with the Rams. Yes, Los Angeles is on an ugly three-game SU (1-2 ATS) run during which they surrendered 55 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and managed just 7 points on 48 passing yards against the San Francisco 49ers.
As weak as Jared Goff looked last week, the Rams can’t help but score points this season. As the Falcons have surrendered at least 20 points in every game to date, whereas L.A. has topped three TDs in every except against the Niners.
Want more reason for skepticism? Great: We’re ready to back the Rams on psychological grounds: This week’s acquisitions of Jalen Ramsey, Kenny Young and Austin Corbett might not pay immediate dividends, but NFLbets believes the mere addition of new blood to the average offensive line, underachieving linebackers and brutal secondary is enough to push the Rams through a manageable bit of upcoming schedule: this week at Atlanta, then vs Cincinnati in London, bye, at Pittsburgh, vs Chicago, vs Baltimore.
As defending NFC champions, the Rams have been quite underwhelming, but the Falcons have morphed into, like the Dolphins, Bengals and Washington, essentially a practice squad. Why else would the bookmakers set the over/under at 53 in a game involving a team which managed just one TD the week before? The growth of this line to 55 – while the point spread has been completely stable – shows us how much NFL bettors think the Atlanta defense will open the turnstile to L.A.’s offense.
The sole argument for betting the Falcons in this matchup, in fact, may be the good old regression to the mean. Atlanta is a pitiful 1-5 ATS this season, a record seemingly crying for a regression bet, but these Falcons may yet be bad enough to finish at 5-11 ATS or so. (Hell, the Chargers, Dolphins and Washington are all 1-4 ATS or worse – so you wanna bet on them, too?)
Take the Los Angeles Rams -3 at Atlanta, and take the under on an O/U of 55 points.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 4-2.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week this season: 15-12.
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