NFLbets wishes we could blame another weak-ass showing in My Bookie Super Contest on the pandemic the same way some teams will be blaming losses on rather unfortunate scheduling issues...
When the NFL schedule was prepared with the traditional system of rotating intra- and interdivisional games, the AFC East teams fell into the unlucky happenstance which occurs once in 12 seasons, i.e. a schedule which included games against AFC West *and* NFC West teams. On top of this, NFC West teams were also scheduled to play the NFC East teams, and the AFC West got games scheduled against the NFC South, which has three teams in the Eastern Time zone.
This all means a disproportionate amount of East-to-West and/or West-to-East travel for nearly two-thirds of the NFL’s franchises in 2020.
Naturally, team management wizened up long ago to the rigors of playing back-to-back games on the opposite coast years ago, and teams simply stay within the time zone between games rather than crisscross the country by air. But of course this is 2020, life in the time of coronavirus, and while technically teams are allowed to stay on the road between such games, the quarantine measures are strict enough for some to decide it’s not worth it.
How to factor this in for NFL betting already made complex by dint of sheer 2020? We’re going to have to assume that trends trend, talent wins out and we’re probably going to be shocked by most outcomes and turn in a 2-3 Super Contest ticket again. Whatever. It’s 2020.
Best bet: New England Patriots -6 vs Las Vegas Raiders. It’s this correct, My Bookie? NFLbets can get the Patriots minus less than a touchdown against the Raiders? The same Raiders bringing the offense-friendly defense which has already given up 54 points in two games? Is this a sucker bet? What do the sportsbooks know that we don’t…?
Arizona Cardinals -5½ vs Detroit Lions. And this bet is along the same lines as the Patriots-Raiders game. NFLbets realizes that sportsbooks don’t post many double-digit pointspreads – hell, even the New York Jets are only giving four this week – but come on. If NFL players cared about the Vegas odds, the Cardinals would be seriously insulted by this line.
Los Angeles Rams +2½ at Buffalo Bills. NFLbets is going out on a limb here, as the Rams opted to travel back to L.A. from Philadelphia on Sunday night, only to fly to Buffalo later in the week. But we believe Sean McVay knows what he’s doing here, as last week’s SU/ATS win over the Eagles brought McVay’s Rams to 7-1 SU/ATS cumulative. And L.A.’s already been impressive enough for NFLbets to juuuuuuust about tear up that “Rams under 8 wins” ticket…
Green Bay Packers +3 at New Orleans Saints. …on the other hand, we’re loving our “Saints under 10½ wins” ticket. In four games, neither Green Bay nor New Orleans has met a proper Super Bowl contender (no, Tampa Bay is not a contender), but whereas the Packers have cruised to 1010 yards in their two games, the Saints have run up les than 700 and simply don’t pass the eye test. On top of this, New Orleans is without Michael Thomas and will have three defensive linemen out or playing hurt (Malcolm Brown, Marcus Davenport, Trey Hendrickson).
Atlanta Falcons -3 vs Chicago Bears. The hype on the 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS Bears is completely out of control. They’ve managed to eke out 27 and 17 points, respectively, against the Detroit Lions and New York Giants, who resemble bottom-10 and bottom-5 NFL teams. Respectively. Meanwhile, the Falcons have shown early on that they can still run up points on offense – like, way more than can this Bears offense.
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–written by Os Davis
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