NFL Week 7 (TNF) Thursday Night Football - Chiefs at Broncos

17 October 2019

Now this is one classic Thursday Night Football betting conundrum: Do you run with the team picked by many for at least the AFC championship game but coming off two straight losses? Or do you side with a team expected to be a bottom-5 or -10 team on a two-game winning streak and enjoying a sizable homefield advantage? This is what awaits NFL bettors in

Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs Denver Broncos, over/under 48½ points

According to at least one source, nearly 80% of the money has come in on Kansas City, which in and of itself should set off a red alert. So the Broncos aren’t exactly entering this game with a lot of reputation and they’re still sitting at just 2-4 SU – but they’re coming off a shutout in which the offense played just 58 snaps, a meaningful number in relation to the 4-day rest prior to this game.

Meanwhile, the rather surprisingly bad Kansas City defense was on the field for over 10 minutes in the 4th quarter alone as DeShaun Watson and the Texans had their way; hardly a shocker from a D ranked dead last in opponent time of possession and first downs surrendered, but certainly of note. Again, four days’ rest.

Those beating on K.C. are also likely touting Patrick Mahomes’ 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) lifetime record against the Broncos, though each win was within 7 points and the first of the three wins came in week 17 of 2017, a meaningless game in Mahomes’s “rookie” year. But here’s a balancing stat: Against Andy Reid-coached teams, QB Joe Flacco is 1-3 SU but 4-0 ATS.

But against those two undefeated streaks is the evilest stat of all: Thus far into 2019, the Broncos are just 1-2 ATS away, meaning, that’s right, they’re 3-0 at home.

Then we can factor in all the “goodies” that TNF games produce. For Denver, Emmanuel Sanders left last week in the first half, so he’ll not be at 100%, while Mahomes still appears to be nursing an ankle injury.

All in all, the numbers just keep evening out. The temptation is to cover a Chiefs win on the Money Line (ML) at -180 and cover the Broncos +3, but NFLbets just doesn’t trust TNF games enough to likesay, make that sort of investment. So we’re going to ignore the point spread altogether and reckon on one of two eventualities paying off: 1) Fatigue and high-altitude rule, resulting in (at least) a very low-scoring first half on the way to a typical Thursday night score and/or 2) the frankly less-talented Broncos show their true colors against an above-.500 team – Denver’s 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS) against winning teams thus far.

So take the under on an O/u of 48½ points and hope against fluke touchdowns.

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