Pick of the week: Houston Texans -6 vs New York Giants (NFLbets <3 Eli Manning)

23 September 2018

Why does NFLbets love Eli Manning so much? Start with history: Eli’s New York Giants twice defeated the EEEEvil Belichick’s Patriots in Super Bowls, shifting a chowderload of betting money from the New England area to virtually every else on planet Earth.

As a bonus, the Super Bowl XLVI win allowed NFL fans to troll followers of Eli’s even more execrable older brother by eliciting mention of the 2-1 disparity in Lombardi Trophies earned by brothers younger and older.

In the playoffs, Eli has made NFL bettors’ playoff seasons quite a bit easier as well. Aside from the playoff runs of 2007 and 2011, Eli’s Giants are 1-3 ATS/0-4 SU in playoff games. And the truth is since that last great Patriot upset, these Giants are a measly 0-1 ATS/SU in the postseason. We’d call the playoff Giants lucrative if they weren’t so insignificant.

So why does NFLbets love Eli Manning even more in 2018? Let us count the ways…

Five minutes of game footage – pick a drive, any drive – should tell even the casual observer that2018 Eli Manning is done. Even his completions are dictionary illustrations of “duck”. (By the way, that’s “duck” in the sense of “animal that flies wobbily at best” as opposed to “If you don’t catch that next pass from Garoppolo, duck because it might take your f^$%$^% head off” sesnse.)

Since throwing his league-leading 27 interceptions in 2013, Eli’s statistics have held relatively steady at a mediocre level. In the Odell Beckham Era and particularly post-Tom Laughlin firing of ’15, the Giants “brain” trust has generously decided that Eli should throw *more* often – “I mean, hey, we have a great prima donna wide receiver, right?” Each of the past four seasons are ranked in Eli’s personal top 5 passing attempts marks; his completion percentage has been in the low 60s, his interceptions in the mid-teens, but his yards per attempt have wilted from 7.2 to a pitiable 6.1.

And for no good reason, here’s a completely gratuitous clip of Eli from 2018; even when they get positive yardage, this offense still fails…

This season, we’re loving Eli more than ever. True, he’s thrown but one interception when NFLbets is wagering he’ll throw 20. Other than that, Eli’s gotten the Giants off to a strong 0-2 start ATS with his wonderful mediocrity. The again-brutal offensive line has also been fantastic for wagering, allowing 8 sacks through the first two games (high even for a QB that’s steadily taken 1.7 per game since entering the league). In addition, the Giants OL is doing their best to stifle the nearly limitless potential of Saquon Barkley by providing literally the NFL’s worst run protection.

Great for NFL bettors, too, is this week’s matchup featuring Eli’s so-called Giants against the Houston Texans. Sadly bereft of an offensive line himself (the Texans OL ranks a weak 26th in pass protection, two spots lower than the Giants), DeShaun Watson is not washed up and is certainly hungry to produce a big game. True, Janoris Jenkins has proven a nice add for the Giants, the truth is the New York D is bottom-3 against the run thus far and couldn’t contain Dak Prescott and his single-weapon offense las week – If Prescott can throw for just 100 yards and beat these guys, what are Watson & Co. capable of?

Though J.J. Watt is spending 2018 not-so-slowly fading from superstardom, he remains part of a still quite effective defense that’s thus far top-3 against the run. (Poor Saquon…) This version of the Texans D has so far managed just three turnovers, but Houston will likely not need turnovers against a side remarkably effective at producing three-and-outs. At 30 third-down attempts, the Giants rank no. 4 in the NFL and are converting at just a 40% rate.

So, yeah, all signs point in one direction: NFLbets’ Pick of the Week for week 3 is to take the Houston Texans -6 vs the New York Giants. And we’ll call betting the under on an O/U of 42½ points. The only one who could destroy this latter wager is Beckham, but what’s the point of having a fleet receiver who can catch in double coverage when your quarterback can’t even reach the dude with the ball?

Gods, we love Eli Manning…