Common wisdom says to bet Washington but we'll stick with Carolina – and 4* other best bets

14 October 2018

The sportsbooks are really outdoing themselves this week with five home underdogs for NFL bettors to choose from. With a few hours left before the east-based (and UK-based – whoo hoo!) games start, let’s run through NFLbets’ best bets for week 6 which focus on these home underdogs.

Carolina Panthers -1/-1½ at Washington. Every NFL bettor and his/her Uncle Bob are taking Washington plus the point, plus the point-and-a-half or on the money line, it seems. The ML on Washington has flipped from 11/10 to 10/11 at some sportsbooks as Carolina gets 20/23 or 10/11.

The argument runs that Washington is on a 4-1 ATS run as a home team and that Carolina lost SU/ATS its only away game of 2018 thus far; that the Panthers rank 30th in completion percentage allowed, exactly the kind of defense the low-watt, low-risk Alex Smith likes to see.; and that Matt Ioannidis & Co. on a really good defensive line will blow past the Carolina OL and crush Cam Newton.

Except that the Panthers offensive line is actually quite good: By Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, they’re no. 2 in run blocking; the result has been 494 yards combined on 99 carries by Newton and Christian McCaffrey, both of whom have wrecked better defenses than Washington’s. Speaking of this defense, they’ve been going backward. Yards allowed through four games, in order, have gone 213, 281, 340 and 447. And McCaffrey finally might punch one into the endzone in this game, as D.C. has given up six rushing TDs and 98 or more yards rushing in each of the last three games.

Plus, first thought, best thought. Take the Panthers -1 or -1½ at Washington. If you can still find a 10/11 line on a Panthers SU win, bet that and forget giving up a point.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Dallas Cowboys. So a game played in mild weather in which the top-notch defense will easily quash an offense with next to zero weapons and complete predictability – doesn’t that sound exactly like the sort of game, i.e. handed to him a platter, in which Blake Bortles grievously underperforms? We’ll stay away from the point spread here, but definitely take the under on an O/U of 40 points; this one could be a baseball game.

Baltimore Ravens -2½ at Tennessee Titans. NFLbets is not ashamed to admit that we can’t get a bead on either of these two teams – except that neither scores a lot of points: The Tians are scoring under 17½ per game, while the Ravens have been good for just over 21 not including the silly week 1 blowout against the Buffalo Bills. We hat to be a stick in the mud, but we have to say take the under on an O/U of 42 points.

Broncos +6½ vs Rams. Checking out the CFL games on Friday and Saturday reminded NFLbets of the scared NFL Betting Tip #9: Don’t Forget the Weather. The Denver area is getting wet snow early on Sunday morning, and temperatures below freezing plus a 90% chance of more precipitation are expected for game time.

Now, it’s extremely difficult to go against these Los Angeles Rams, who are more and more resembling the 2007 New England Patriots, who ran off an 8-0 ATS run to start that season, despite double-digit point spreads much of the way. But this weather report is certainly bad news for a team that hasn’t traveled further east than Phoenix thus far in 2018. Add in that inherent homefield advantage in Denver plus the fact that the numbers must balance out – ffs, Denver is f^#&^%^#ing 0-3-2 this year. The rams may yet win SU again, but we’re thinking the best bet is to take the Denver Broncos +6½ vs the Rams.

Chicago Bears -3½ at Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have one asset going for them against the suddenly mighty-looking Chicago Bears. Homefield advantage is of course a factor, and NFLbets reminds that weather is a double-edged sword. Players are looking at possible 90⁰F and 85% humidity at kickoff.

However, the big problem for the Dolphins is that, on the sidelines for Miami (other than IVs and a s***-ton of Gatorade, one presumes) could well be LT Jeremy Tunsil. The Fins OL is collapsing around itself and Tunsil, about the only All-Pro caliber player left standing, left the last game and was limited in practice all week. Should Tunsil not play, only psychic ability and perhaps telekinesis will stop Khalil Mack, it seems.

The formula for the Dolphins to cover plus 3½ points is there, including the inexorable mathematical pull dragging the Bears (3-1 ATS) back to .500. Thus does NFLbets give this advice with an asterisk: Take the Miami Dolphins +3½ vs Chicago – but only if Tunsil starts.