NFLbets promises that we’re not overcompensating for losing three in a row – even though we’re betting on Thursday Night Football on the premises that certain outlier trends will continue. The game is of course
The gut reaction here is twofold: First, Seattle giving three points should be no problem whatsoever; though Bill Barnwell of ESPN once calculated that the only true home field advantages statistically are enjoyed by the Denver Broncos and, for some bizarre reason(s), the Baltimore Ravens. Of course, examining win-loss circumstances of individual teams over a few years only begs chicken-or-egg questions, i.e. do the Carolina Panthers play poorly as visitors because of some barely quantifiable variable or is the win-loss record away due sheerly to their status as a slightly above average team at best?
So yes, we’re believing that travelling to the West Coast on a short week to play a night game still swings a few points Seattle’s way. Their 2-1-1 ATS at home mark is pretty typical of Seattle in the Pete Carroll era: With the exception of 2017, the ’Hawks have been good for at least a 5-3 mark at home ATS every year over the past seven – and the most common results is 6-2 ATS.
The first real outlier is in the Packers’ away mark. Talking about another team with a perceived homefield advantage – heck, they’ve even got a “mystique” at Lambeau, right? – the Pack, along with the aforementioned Panthers, are this year’s There’s No Place Like Homers. Aaron Rodgers et al are 4-1 at home ATS, and 0-4 (!) away.
Continuation of a four-game trend into a fifth is not often the smart bet, but NFLbets believes that this bad record is a reflection of, well, a bad team run by a head coach plumb fresh out of new ideas. Green Bay hasn’t reached the levels of Oakland’s despair (at least the Packers have a proper QB out there) yet, but player trades and the mutterings in sports talking head land add up to a lost season.
The outlier that everyone’s all over right now regarding these two teams are their distinct approaches in the low-defense, pass-happy NFL of 2018. While the Packers are unsurprisingly ranked no. 2 in the NFL in pass attempts as a proportion of total play calls at over 66%, while the Seahawks are dead last at just about 49%. Less than half the Seahawks plays are passes – in 2018, mind you! Pete Carroll may be the oldest head coach in the league at present, but he certainly has a young man’s mind for rebooting a successful approach of the past.
The running game well be key against a Packers D quite weak against RBs. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, Green Bay has a bottom-6 pass defense that’s second-to-last in tackles for a loss. And not only have they allowed 98 or more yards rushing in the last seven games and over 100 in 6 of the past 11, the Packers haven’t even faced a mobile quarterback yet. Russell Wilson may be no Cam Newton, but he’s also no Nathan Peterman, Matt Stafford or Brock Osweiler, either.
So NFLbets is looking at larger, more holistic trends this week, as in the Packers are spiraling down in 2018 while the Seahawks are treading water. Again, Seattle -3 feels like a push waiting to happen, but we’re covering it and hoping against a Rodgers miracle-out-the-butt. Take the Seattle Seahawks -3 vs Green Bay.
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