Vikings-Seahawks on MNF: More separating of men from boys (Can we still say that in 2018?)

10 December 2018

Now that was an educational Sunday of football, a solid three tv broadcast timeslots provided an excellent preview of next month’s playoffs.

For example, we can now emphatically count out the Philadelphia Eagles (who wavered between bland and bad throughout the Dallas game), Denver Broncos (wrecked by a single TE in 30 minutes in San Francisco), the Carolina Panthers (currently suffering the hangover which follows a giddy embrace of Norv Turner) and Washington (crushed by Pee Wee League QB Eli Manning’s Giants).

We can additionally temper expectations of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and possibly the Los Angeles Rams, though in this latter case, NFLbets reckons the Rams’ kryptonite is cold weather, and they’re not likely to face any such in the playoffs. NFLbets is also pumping the brakes a bit on the Houston Texans until we discover whether the loss to the Indianapolis Colts (whose stock is also rising steadily) was merely the hardly unexpected snapping of a long winning streak by a divisional rival.

On the upswing NFLbets lists the Los Angeles Chargers (scarier by the week, especially in away games) Baltimore Ravens (with a nice ATS win against the Kansas City Chiefs; the SU loss did not hurt their no. 6 standing in the AFC, as the Ravens hold all tiebreakers against the competition), Dallas Cowboys (who expect the canonization of St. Amari of Dallas-Ft. Worth) and Chicago Bears, all looking like very tough outs in the playoffs.

We’re expecting more separation of men from boys on Monday Night Football this week:

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Seattle Seahawks, over/under 46½ points

Both of the these teams sit pretty high on the ATS standings board: Going into MNF, the Seahawks stand at 7-3-2 while the Vikings are currently at 7-4-1. The Bears, Saints and Chargers – all at 9-4 ATS – are the only teams higher on the ’board. So why does it feel as though these teams are tending in opposite directions?

The Vikings are stumbling in the second half, currently on a 2-3 SU/ATS jag in which they frankly looked outclassed vs New Orleans, at Chicago and at New England – three proper playoff teams. We can remove the 2018 Minnesota Vikings to previous playoff-bound incarnations of the team due to this version’s below-average play outside the dome. After starting out at an impressive 3-0-1 ATS (2-1-1 SU) in away games, their last away win SU/ATS came in week 7 against the New York Jets, who are the New York Jets.

And here’s the key to this game: A team vulnerable on the road cannot expect to come to Seattle, one of three NFL home locales with the greatest statistically significant advantages for the home team, and surprise the Seahawks. Excepting 2017, the ’Hawks have been good for at least a 5-3 mark at home ATS every year since 2011 – and the most common results is 6-2 ATS. Right now, they’re at 3-1-2 at home. On top of this, remember that West Coast teams in prime team are an incredible 71% ATS this decade.

But hey, we don’t even really need greater trends or regression to the mean to justify belief in a big Seahawks win tonight. Since week 3, Seattle has lost only to the Chargers and Rams – not a bad pick for Super Bowl LIII, NFLbets’d say, and they’re 5-1 against teams not currently in the playoff picture, likesay Minnesota. After topping 27 points just once in the first six games, they’ve done so in five of the past six and the over is on a 4-0 streak in Seahawks games.

Best of all is that Pete Carroll and QB Russell Wilson have crafted a fascinating hybrid offense with a run-heavy playback, modern-style quarterback option plays and old-fashioned stretching the field with the occasional empty backfield. The defensive game plan has reverted to a philosophy that got the Seahawks into Super Bowls, namely lots of wysiwyg zone schemes and exceptionally few disguised coverages. NFLbets will admit it: This may not be conducive to approaching 100% objective betting, but we *like* Carroll’s coaching of Seattle in 2018.

Admission of bias aside, NFLbets quite frankly can’t conjure up the argument for anything beyond a push out of a bet on Vikings +3 here. Even the plus of a short IR list is enough for Minnesota, as CB Trae Waynes, anchor of the secondary, will miss this game due to a concussion. Sometimes it’s best to not overthink things – a sentiment with which Coach Carroll and Marshawn Lynch would certainly agree.

NFLbets Pick of the Week: Take the Seattle Seahawks -3 vs Minnesota.

NFLbets Pick of the Week record in 2018: 6-4-1.