There's a reason the line on the Thursday Night Football game looks like this:
And NFLbets figures it’s because the bookmakers are as befuddled as we are about this one. After spending the first half of the season drawing comparisons to The Greatest Show on Turf and other all-time great offenses, the Chiefs’ aura of invincibility has somehow dissipated and they’ve failed to cover in their last four games, going 0-3-1 ATS. The woeful defense hasn’t improved since week 1 and its bottom-3 by most statistical measures, including their league-“leading” number of penalties assessed.
The lack of Kareem Hunt is huge for the Chiefs. Sure, Patrick Mahomes et al had no problem running up 40 points against the Oakland Raiders, but the well more competent Ravens defense nabbed one interception, forced a fumble and levied three sacks against the Chiefs QB. Mahomes may be superhuman, but it says here that the play-action pass in pretty important and Kansas City won’t be fooling anyone down the stretch.
On the other side for TNF are the Chargers – Remember them? Because Los Angeles sure doesn’t on Sundays. Starting the season as a popular choice to win the AFC, they’re currently sitting at 10-3 SU (8-5 ATS), only the second-best record in conference. Philip Rivers is the modern NFL’s answer to Hank Aaron, consistently racking up great numbers in near total anonymity.
Most notable about the Chargers in 2018, though, is the stunning lack of mistakes made and sheer dumb luck this team has often seen in recent years: They’re 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS in games decided by 8 points or less, indicating both a reputation and steadfastness when holding (or gaining) a lead in games. Nor has traveling hasn’t been an issue this season for the Chargers, with a 6-0 SU record outside of Los Angeles (5-1 ATS, with the sole loss coming in London).
One may also point out that not only are the Chargers traveling, they’re doing so on a short week. Fair enough, but L.A.’s week ended up less than three hours shorter than the Chiefs’, and the Chargers enjoyed a laugher as opposed to the classic grueling Ravens treatment given Kansas City. Where the short week strikes the Chargers the hardest is on the injury front: Both Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon could conceivably play a Sunday game, but will sit out Thusday night’s.
And then there’s Andy Reid, himself an enigma wrapped in mystery in December. Reid has a reputation for pumping the brakes on his teams and thus taking losses down the stretch; the actual record tells a different story. Or else it doesn’t.
Drumroll, please! Preeeeesenting the career of Andy Reid in December in numbers!
• Andy Reid, total career record: 317-194-1 (.620)
• Reid’s record in games played August-November: 261-168-1 (.608)
• Reid’s record in games played in December.: 56-26 (.683)
• Reid’s record in December vs winning teams: 16-15 (.516)
• Reid’s record in December vs winning teams ATS: 14-17 (.452)
It’s those last two that blow NFLbets’ mind, of course, reducing picking this game to a zen exercise. Even the over/under is tricky: 54 points makes for a final score of around 29-25, and the fewer points the Chiefs have scored in a game this season is 25. The weather forecast for Kansas City at kickoff puts the temperature at in the 30s with winds up to 20 MPH.
So you know what? We’re throwing the math out the window on this one and going for the cash grab. More color and confusion before the playoffs begin, say we! Take the Los Angeles Chargers +3½ at Kansas City.
(NFLbets will also be taking the Chargers ML at +165 or so, but we won’t call that an official NFLbets Best Bet for week 15.)
NFLbets Best Bets record in 2018: 32-26-1.
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