Thursday Night Football betting: Surfing the algorithm of Chiefs -3 at Chargers

16 December 2021

Who are these 2021 Kansas City Chiefs...?

In roulette, there are two schools of thought regarding streaks. One postulates that, if, likesay, number 20 hits three times in a row, do not bet on number 20 again; the other prescribes the opposite. Both “strategies” are obviously bunk, as even the rankest player today understands that each spin of the wheel is a mathematically discreet event which is utterly unrelated to spins prior to or after that spin, but the latter theory is quite compelling. The idea depends on the concept that, when the Natural Algorithm Of The Universe allows for the possibility of hitting number 20 on a roulette wheel 17 times consecutively, you get in on the miracle while order temporarily reigns over chaos.

What does this have to do with this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup of

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Los Angeles Chargers, over/under 53 points

?

Put it this way: The NFL bettor this week must determine whether the Chiefs have morphed back into their dominant selves of 2019-20 or have merely been happily surfing a chancy algorithm about to crash down on our heads.

Kansas City started this season at 5-4 SU/2-7 ATS while leaving observers baffled, but are currently on a 6-0 SU/4-2 ATS run, including four straight ATS wins. In the first five games of 2021, the Chiefs hemorrhaged over 34 points per game; in the past eight, they’re down to allowing just 13.33 per – and they’ve allowed single digits in four of the last five.

Unfortunately for the bettors, the Chargers contrastingly resemble the NFL norm in this parity-ridden season; whereas Kansas City fairly well screams for the fade here, the Bolts present no clear trend: After starting 4-1 SU/ATS, they went on a 1-3 SU/ATS jag followed by a 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS run. Of course, they haven’t played a top-notch contender since getting nipped by the New England Patriots in week 8.

One might expect to find answers in the coaching as well, but since taking over the Chiefs, Andy Reid’s team is an unencouraging 5-4 SU/ATS. More informative is the 6-3 record for overs in these nine games; combined with the stifling, stingy defense Reid’s guys appear to be playing (NFLbets uses “appear” here because the Chiefs have caught one quality opponent with starting QB in the past six games) makes betting the under look very lucrative.

This despite the statistically red-hot Chargers, who have gone for 37 points or more in three of the last four games. Again, though, the competition is fair at best: vs Pittsburgh, at Cincinnati, vs the Giants. Sandwiched in between was the game at Denver in which the Chargers managed just 13 on two Justin Herbert passing TDs.

In the final analysis, then, NFLbets will guess (admittedly perhaps a bit brazenly) that the bionumerical wave still hasn’t crashed for the Chiefs and that in a battle of K.C. D vs L.A. O will be won by the frankly stunningly good Chiefs defense. Take the Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Los Angeles and take the under on an O/U of 53 points.

–written by Os Davis

Os Davis has been covering sports for longer than he’d care to admit. For personality, check his Twitter feed; for professional acumen, here’s his Linkedin profile.