Betting Monday Night Football – Raiders +7 at Chiefs – Odds, prediction, how to bet

Going into Monday Night Football to cap week 5, the week’s theme has been separation. With so many teams entering the week at 2-2, several games helped define a handful of teams as bona fide contenders (49ers, Bills, Eagles), some as honest plucky upstarts (Jets, Falcons, Giants) while it became apparent to others that it’s simply not the year (Broncos, Rams and the Lions again). NFLbets strongly suspects MNF will reveal identities of two more teams. The lines stand at

Las Vegas Raiders -7 at Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 51½ points

First things first: The adroit NFL bettor won’t be buying into any of these “the Raiders always play the Chiefs tough” myths, as superstitious beliefs are antithetical to winning at betting NFL games. The truth is that since Patrick Mahomes debuted in the NFL, his Chiefs are 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS against the Raiders. In all eight games the Chiefs were favored, in seven games by 7 or more points, and in five would have covered a spread of 17½.

Now NFLbets themselves might have made the argument that all those numbers may be tossed out ahead of this particular MNF game closing out week 5. After all, the Raiders have played home games in two different cities with three different head coaches during the span of Mahomes’s career…

The Kansas City offense is currently approaching the scary-looking machine-like efficiency they’ve shown since, well, since Mahomes was drafted. Going into week 5, they’re no. 1 overall in points scored – that’s cumulative, by the way, meaning the Chiefs’ four games are measured against five for all other teams except Vegas. Chiefs RBs are good for 4.5 yards per carry while Mahomes has tossed 11 TDs against just 2 interceptions.

Meanwhile, the Raiders defense has allowed 25.0 points per game, and their last three opponents (Arizona, Tennessee, Denver) notched their season high against Vegas – and the Raiders D has generated 3 turnovers total in the first four games.

So the Raiders D will be unlikely to stop the Chiefs offense. The question then becomes: Do they have any hope of keeping up? Welllllllllllll, things don’t look too great there, either.

Vegas has thus far averaged 24.0 ppg on the offensive side and, despite a fairly mediocre offensive line, has a decent pass game if a bottom-5 run game – but this team just isn’t a scoreboard-spinner. In the past 15 games, just three times have these Raiders scored more than 23 points: Last week against Denver; in the bizarre game against the Los Angeles Chargers to close out the 2021 regular season; and in OT at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.

For 2022, the acquisition of Davante Adams seemed promising, particularly after a week 1 of 141 yards receiving out of the former Packer. But would you believe that Arron Carr has connected with his new no. 1 on just 26 of 47 targets? In two of four games, Adams disappeared nearly completely, and it’s hard to believe Andy Reid’s gameplan won’t call for lots of attention to Adams.

NFLbets is thinking that this MNF game is no outlier like the above-listed exceptions, and that the Raiders will need well above their average output in this game. We’re also thinking that, like week 5’s Bills-Steelers and 49ers-Panthers games, this one will separate contender from pretender. You can probably safely bet the over, but definitely take the Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs Las Vegas.