Sure, sure, NFLbets likes college football well enough (though this writer certainly wishes his beloved University of New Mexico Lobos would occasionally be relevant) and bowl/FBS series games are awesome to bet on, but … NFL games on Saturday, both of which features at least one highly interesting AFC team? Nice.
Gee, the oddsmakers are certainly accentuating the “advantage” in “homefield advantage” here. As inspiring as the Jets’ SU/ATS win at Buffalo was last week – and scoring 27 points with a rookie QB against the NFL’s third-best defense per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric is admittedly noteworthy – the Buffalo Bills ain’t the Houston Texans.
The truth is that, in their 4-point victory over Buffalo, the aforementioned statistically heralded defense accounted for zero sacks against Sam Darnold. Nor could the Bills stop the running game, with a ground-and-pound game enough to keep the Jets in the game until Darnold’s first TD pass came with 12 minutes remaining in the game to tie it up at 20-20. Think the Texans will bring a better pass rush, cold weather or no?
Speaking of that weather, temperatures in the high 40s plus wind speed topping out at 10 MPH doesn’t sound too tough for a Texas-based team to take.
Even the current winning streak ATS appears to be in the Texans favor. After a wonky start that had Houston at just 4-6 ATS against a 7-3 SU mark, they righted things with back-to-back ATS wins before last week’s SU/ATS loss to the Indianapolis Colts. (NFLbets chalks that loss up to the sheer unsustainability of the 9-game winning streak the Texans’d been on.)
Working against betting on the Texans in this one is their maddening 2-4 mark ATS against current sub-.500 teams. Nevertheless, sometimes you just have to bet the football and not the numbers; we believe Houston’s more than a touchdown better than the Jets. Take the Texans -7 at the New York Jets.
Gee, the oddsmakers are certainly accentuating the “advantage” in “homefield advantage” here. Perhaps they’re assuming we haven’t seen the injury list for the Broncos? Start with the three TEs on injured reserve (Jeff Heuerman, Troy Funiagalli, Jake Butt), which could be the all-time NFL record. Tight ends have accounted for 540 yards on 44 receptions, over 15% of Denver’s output in the categories.
They're also without their starting OGs on both sides (Nico Falah, Ronald Leary) and WR Emmanuel Sanders, who takes his 71 receptions and 888 yards (over 25% of Denver’s total in each stat). Taking snaps behind the third center to start for the Broncos in ’18 (Connor McGovern) is Case Keenum, who remains Case Keenum. Yes, injuries hit all NFL teams, but Denver has been left without an offense altogether.
Meanwhile, the Browns are this year’s second-half up-and-comer. Since the Kansas City game and the bye week, the Browns are 3-1 SU/ATS in a run that included double-digit wins over the Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals plus the satisfaction of helping eliminate the Carolina Panthers from playoff contention last week.
As Gregg Williams continues to play for the Browns head coaching job next season – and certain dismissal before the contract terms are up; can we bet on this yet? – he’s encouraged to fire up his charges like only a testosterone addict like Williams can bring. NFLbets is loathe to admit Williams’s success, but the numbers don’t lie about the talent on this roster.
Cleveland has topped 21 in three of the past four games, which doesn’t sound that impressive until one realizes that they’d done so only twice with Hue Jackson, in games against the Las Vegas Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, thus barely matter. Baker Mayfield’s topped 200 yards passing five weeks in a row, and in three of those, Browns RBs have topped 100. The Ringer early this week dropped the stats that Mayfield is rushed more often than any NFL QB and, in the season’s second half, has the highest QB rating against said pass rush. The Broncos’ll bring Von Miller and Bradley Chubb repeatedly, but Mayfield & Co. can respond.
Meanwhile, the Browns defense has been steadily climbing the DVOA chart, now ranking no. 10 and a surprising no. 5 against the pass. They are -2 in turnover differential in the five-game Williams Era, but this can be put down to the sloppy four surrendered by the offense in the Texans game two weeks ago. With Keenum as weapon-deprived as he is, the Browns can certainly handle a 58% Broncos offense.
Take the Cleveland Browns ML at Denver @ +120. To play conservatively – and just in case of a tie; if any remaining game’s going to be a tie, it’ll be this one – we’ll also say take the Browns +2½.
Additionally, NFLbets will be playing a parlay for the Saturday games. We do not recommend parlays as an NFLbets Best Bet, as the luck factor is simply too high for those serious about making money to wager on. This week we’re seeing a good opportunity, however, for those who believe the Browns take this game.
The Texans ML against the Jets is right around -300 (or 1/3), hardly worth the wagering. But with the Browns getting about +120 (6/5), parlaying the Houston and Cleveland MLs gets +190 (19/10) odds. Good one.
NFLbets Best Bets record in 2018: 33-26-1.
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