NFLbets probably has no right to be this geeked about a couple of bets in week 16. We managed a 2-1 mark in yesterday’s NFL betting (foiled by Blaine Gabbert and a garbage-time FG bad beat yada yada yada) and our choices for Sunday aren’t exactly “Sure Bets.” But we looking forward to these games with optimism and potentially lots of schadenfreude. If/when NFLbets wins these bets this weekend, we’ll say it couldn’t have happened to a couple of nice teams…
Right from the preseason and the team’s turn on the increasingly insufferable Hard Knocks, we knew this Cleveland Browns season would be memorable – not good, mind you, but memorable. HBO showed us from the go that these Browns were not the boring old 2016 St. Louis Los Angeles Rams led by the snooze-inducing Jeff Fisher and Mr. Anti-Charisma himself, Jared Goff.
Instead, the Browns were seen to be the proverbial asylum run by the inmates, with a head coach obsessed with chairs, an offensive coordinator who reckoned he was Michael Keaton’s Batman and a line coach whose training philosophy was based on World War II stories. Amidst these jokers was the NFL’s own plotting, scheming, headhunting pantomime villain, a guy so dastardly insane he actually wanted the head coach position in Cleveland.
The first half of the 2018 season was akin to Shakespearean Theatre plotted by the Farrelly Brothers, a Trump Administration operating within the AFC North, and the Browns were again the league’s punchline for reasons beyond the usual crap in Cleveland.
And then, something changed – namely, the top dog. Gregg “Richard III” Williams was named head coach in time for NFL bettors to cash in on a game against the Kansas City Chiefs. A deserved start, sure, but ol’ Boba Fett, Intergalactic Bounty Hunter, turned things back around to get this team on a 4-1 SU/ATS run going into week 16. Guess desperation breeds success, eh?
On the other side of the field this week are the Cincinnati Bengals, who have not only swapped bodies in freakily Friday fashion, but have also racked up their usual three-volume list of injuries. Hue “Know My Name; Look Up the Numbers” Jackson is famously back on the sidelines in Cincinnati in some capacity and if you’re a believer in karma, the Bengals are once again your exemplar of proof on the subject.
More pragmatically speaking, until beating the Las Vegas Raiders last week, the failing Bengals had been on a 1-7 (!) run during which the average result was a 14-point loss. The truth is, Cincy hasn’t been a quality opponent since winning at home against the Baltimore Ravens in week 2.
“Two teams heading in opposite directions”? You bet (literally)! In fact, NFLbets will fearlessly predict that this is the game in which the narratives of these two franchises is flipped, at least for the medium-term. NFLbets’ Pick of the Week for week 16: Take the Cleveland Browns -10 vs Cincinnati.
Try, if at all possible, to blow away the noise about Belichick ‘n’ Brady and forget the reputation – mainly because the Buffalo Bills certainly have been in practices this week.
Seriously, have you seen these guys play lately? The once-feared New England Patriots are a very unimpressive 2-3 SU/ATS – and the Pats were favored in all five games – since week 10. The New England offense is somehow still ranked no. 6 in the NFL per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, but the rushing game is disappearing faster than Arctic ice and has sunk to 28th in yards per attempt. (Look: Do you believe in Cordarelle Patterson as a viable NFL halfback? Come on.)
Additionally, NFLbets isn’t sure why NFL bettors are plunking down more and more on the Patriots minus the points; the line has ballooned from 12 to 13½ at some sportsbooks since Monday. Fair enough, it’s easy most years to sleep on the Bills and Brady is a sick 29-3 SU for his career against Buffalo, with the average score reading Patriots 30, Bills 16. In these teams’ week 8 game in Buffalo, it was Patriots 25-6.
We’ve got three arguments in favor of betting Bills +13, though. First, these Bills aren’t bad, actually. They’ve boasted a top-5 defense in DVOA terms for the entire second half of 2018 and are currently at no. 3 overall. During the same period as New England’s stumbling to 2-3, Buffalo has gone 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS); Josh Allen appears to now be surfing the learning curve with three straight games of over 200 yards passing and just five interceptions thrown in the past six games – great stats to face up against a frankly weak Patriots defense ranked 31st-“best” overall and 21st against the pass.
Second, the on-field importance of Josh Gordon’s departure has been muffled behind sympathy for the man’s substance abuse issues. The fact is that Gordon was this team’s leading receiver statistically and the Patriots’ only true downfield threat. Who will replace Gordon’s 18.0 yards per reception? The hobbled Rob Gronkowski? The lacrosse dude?
Finally, there is the weather: Forecasts call for snowfall starting right about kickoff time. Sure, Brady & Co. are well used to the cold-ass climes of their own home, but the Bills play in even colder stuff and their quarterback isn’t 41 years old.
We’re absolutely not suggesting that temperatures in the 30s will win the Bills the game, but cold almost always puts a damper on scoring other than on freakish opportunities – the latter, a former strength of Belichick’s Patriots, is also nowhere in evidence right now. The lines call for a final score of about 29-16, but can anyone thinking logically really justify betting on the Patriots to score four TDs in the frozen stuff this weekend? We’re saying take the Buffalo Bills +13½ at New England and take the under on an O/U of 44½.
NFLbets Best Bets record in 2018: 37-29-2.
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