A ridiculous run of double-digit point spreads has deluged NFL betting in 2019 through five weeks, thanks to the likes of a certain three bottom-feeders plus those hard-luck New York Jets.
How wacky have things been? Since 1970, just 27 NFL games to date have kicked off with a point spread of 18 points or higher. NFL bettors hadn’t seen such since 2013, and we’ve already had three in ’19 – and we’re certain to see more, as Washington and Miami are particularly terrible, while the Cincinnati Bengals may shed what’s left of their top talent before the trade deadline.
NFLbets has gotten to the point (so to speak) where we expect these huge numbers, as a squall of blowouts fills the league scoreboard weekly. So after considering the games everyone wants to bet, we based our Best Bet(s) on a couple point spreads which, in wacky 2019, we think could be substantially higher.
The Jets’ current situation just doesn’t do justice to the well-worn cliché “ravaged by injuries.” C.J. Mosely – he of the team’s largest salary – won’t play again this week, and the defense is further wounded in playing (if at all) Quentin Williams and Jordan Jenkins hurt. Kelechi Osemele’s absence further hurts the offensive line.
But you know what? NFLbets just doesn’t trust the favorite in this one. It’s not merely that the return of Sam Darnold should certainly invigorate an offense that’s certainly better than its gaunt showing thus far. It’s that the Cowboys are so poorly coached as to elicit no confidence whatsoever. Whoever is deciding that Dak Prescott throwing into coverage in the fourth quarter is a winning strategy needs to go. (It doesn’t appear to be Jason Garrett, who’s handed over responsibility for play-calling to others and has solf-promoted to the position of head Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader.)
The point spread in this game has been driven a full point from opening at Cowboys -6½, but this has got to be flowing in from Dallas homers, Jets detractors and big spread lovers. We’re going against the flow here: Take the New York Jets +7½ vs Dallas.
Now this favorite, NFLbets can get behind. The mass exodus from the Ravens bandwagon proceeds apace, much too hastily, in our opinion. Sure, the SU loss against Cleveland wasn’t great, but sandwiching this was an ATS win in a shootout with high-scoring Kansas City and an OT SU win against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Once again, we are reminded that public opinion should mean diddly squat to the proper NFL bettor.
The Ravens await the poor Bengals in week 6 with some majorly gaudy offensive statistics: How about 441.4 total yards per game, including a ridiculous 192.2 rushing ypg. Cincinnati’s defense is predictably bottom-10 in most statistical categories, but playing from behind much of the defense has put then in the bottom-5 in most rushing stats. Hell, the Bengals have already given up more than 250 rushing yards in a game twice this season; here’s the thinking Mark Ingram is a very popular start in fantasy football this week, and we can only imagine what Lamar Jackson might do against these guys.
Readers of NFLbets know we try not to put too much stock in history, what with team rosters and coaching staffs so fluid. The Bengals are on a 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) run against the Ravens, certainly due in great part to Ravens teams taking a sub-.500 division mate for granted. But this just isn’t the Cincinnati team to be pulling off this upset. Take the Baltimore Ravens -10½ vs Cincinnati.
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