Well, guess that had to happen. After enjoying a sweet 7-0 wildcard round, NFLbets’ so-called Best Bets for the Divisionals went a solid 0-6 – we’re still +30 Moneys, though! And it says here that, in NFL betting (especially NFL playoffs betting), winning money is better than losing money.
So damn straight, NFLbets is getting back on the horse. What are we supposed to do, *not* bet? For betting on the 2020 NFC Conference Championship games, we’re going with:
Last week’s NFC divisional round games showed us more of the same from the winning sides: The San Francisco 49ers looked good in all areas of the game despite the requisite Jimmy Garoppolo giveaway early on, while the Green Bay Packers deployed that smoke and mirrors (smokes and mirrors?) to eke out another one. Based on the football alone, you’d have to be thinking 49ers -7½, so we’re looking for chinks in the armor here…
The other bet that hurriedly looks good ‘n’ lucrative is the under-45½. The Packers averaged 20.0 points per game in the eight games after the win over Matt Moore’s Kansas City Chiefs; the 28-23 win over the Seattle Seahawks in which Green Bay nearly choked away a 21-3 lead brought up the team’s 9-game average to exactly 21.0.
Meanwhile, the 49ers defense, which was beginning to give up points a bit too generously after clamping down on Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in week 13, went off on the Minnesota Vikings. Say what you will about a short week and, you know, Kirk Cousins at quarterback, 7 first downs allowed and no TDs scored in the game’s final 50 minutes is pretty impressive – and Kyle Shanahan will certainly be just fine if all Aaron Rodgers manages to produce in this game is a single 41-yard TD strike.
On the other hand, with Dee Ford and the injury-bugged Kentavious Street both listed as “questionable”, the Niners’ pass rush will definitely lose an edge (so to speak).
In terms of history, we can make no generalizations about rookie head coach Matt LaFleur or LaFluer & Rodgers but at 11-5-1, the insurance boy himself is pretty impressive ATS. In addition, Rodgers’s Packers are on a 6-1 ATS run despite a 4-3 SU mark in those games. Shanahan Junior and Jimmy G are likewise inexperienced, unless you want to count Jimmy G.’s mojo in going 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) while on the bench for the New England Patriots in the playoffs.
So how much longer can the Rodgers magic last, particularly since this 49ers defense is outstanding. Aaron Jones, who had been eating teams alive in the second half of the season, indeed scored his two TDs against the Seahawks, but beyond a 23-yard breakaway, managed just 39 yards on 20 carries. Recall, too, that Jones was held to just 38 yards on 13 carries in San Francisco’s 37-8 thumping in week 12 in Santa Clara.
Jones’s performance in that game was no fluke, and only slightly flukier was Rodgers’s sub-100 yard, 5-sack showing: The 49ers enter this game with the league’s no. 2 overall defense and no.. 2 pass defense per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Interpret Rodgers’s lifetime marks however you like – Just to make it trickier, consider that since winning the Super Bowl, Rodgers and his Packers have been a subpar 6-6 SU and just 2-4 as visitors – these 49ers just look really fucking good.
Take the San Francisco 49ers -7½ vs Green Bay. And since the over is still just 2-6 in the playoffs thus far, we’re also saying take the over on an O/U of 45½ points.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 0-6.
NFLbets this season, all recommended bets: 65-50-1.
–written by Os Davis
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