Week 4 sent NFLbets plummeting back down to even on the season and while some may find the erasure of profit the end result of a Sisyphean task, NFLbets is excited to be restarting the season at 0-0 (well, technically 5-5-2, but you get the idea).
In fact, covid-cancelled games aside, week 5 is typically an ideal time to start turning a profit: Most teams are locked into their seasonal identity but the sportsbooks and/or NFL bettors may not have caught up to the season’s realities. This week, NFLbets is focusing on two games which each feature, as far as general NFL fandom is concerned, a team whose preseason forecast will likely turn out significantly incorrect.
For week 5 and a comeback, we started out ticket with…
Are the sportsbooks finally done living in Philadelphia’s past when making 2020 point spreads? The Eagles haven’t been a 7-point underdog at home since the last game of the ’05 season – this after going 1-2-1 SU/1-3 ATS thus far.
It’s a logical line that hasn’t budged at most sportsbooks since Monday: Virtually anywhere the bettor looks statistically, Pittsburgh appears to be a near shoo-in for the SU win at very least. For example, Carson Wentz leads the league with 7 interceptions through four games and the Eagles are second-worst in turnovers; in 2019, the Steelers defense ranked no. 1 overall in turnovers generated and no. 2 in interceptions.
As for the battle of minds on the sidelines, Doug Pederson has done well enough coaching against AFC teams in his 4-plus seasons with the Eagles – and the following statistics are cited here as a reflection of performance against teams one usually doesn’t face often – to run up a record of 10-6-1 SU/9-8 ATS. Note, however, that Pederson’s Eagles are 0-2-1 SU/0-3 ATS in their last three such games. For the Steelers, Mike Tomlin has led his guys to a nice 35-18 SU (23-20 ATS) record against NFC teams.
Throwing in, you know, actual eye test results makes this feel like a slam dunk for Steelers -7 – and we’d certainly call betting the Steelers ML within a parlay a solid investment – except for what could be Tomlin’s kryptonite: The bye week. Tomlin’s Steelers have been fine for football results following a regular-season bye week at 9-4 SU, but have disappointed NFL bettors with a 5-8 ATS mark, including the current 1-5 ATS run.
Going into week 5, of course, every NFL team has a 0-0 SU/ATS mark in games following a surprise bye week due to coronavirus, with the Steelers and Tennessee Titans acting as guinea pigs for this weirdness. But WTF can NFLbets do with this unprecedented factor? That’s right, we’re ignoring it. Take the Pittsburgh Steelers -7 at Philadelphia.
Even without the dominant force that is Christian McCaffrey, the 2-2 SU/ATS Panthers have got to like their chances to eke into the postseason, thanks to the existence of the brand-new no. 7 seed combined with several NFC teams playing below general expectation (e.g. Dallas, San Francisco, Arizona, New Orleans). The timing is also negative for the Falcons: With their inability to score late (the Falcons have been outscored 84-46 in second halves this season), Atlanta doesn’t want to face an offense that’s beaten their last two opponents 39-14 in the final 30 minutes – especially not with the league’s second-worst defense in points allowed and yardage allowed.
This may be the last chance to get the Panthers as an underdog, so get on the bandwagon for this Sunday at least. And with the point spread at +1, the only reason to cover Carolina plus the point is if you fervently believe the game will end in a tie – a 0.33% probability going back to 2010. At the typical sportsbook, Carolina +1 will get odds of 20/21 whereas a Carolina money-line bet will net winners 21/20 odds.
At one sportsbook, the odds are 20/21 on Panthers +1 but 21/20 on the Panthers ML: a 10% swing! So, yeah, take the Carolina Panthers ML at Atlanta.
NFLbets’ current record in 2020: 5-5-2.
The Philadelphia Eagles' schedule was released on May 12th. The team signed James Bradberry to a one-year deal. Bradbury can help change the outcomes of close games. The Eagles play the Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans in a three-game stretch.
The Philadelphia Eagles signed Jimmy Moreland from the Houston Texans. Joe Ostman was waived by the team on Monday. Ost man was an UDFA from Central Michigan. He almost made the Eagles in 2018 but failed a physical and was released. He is remembered for his hard work and dedication.
Carolina Panthers traded for Sam Darnold and exercised his fifth-year option before he played a snap for the team. The team didn't sign a free agent quarterback and they didn’t sign Mitch Trubisky or Tyrod Taylor in the offseason. They lost the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. They also didn'st look into a trade for Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo.
Eagles claim cornerback Jimmy Moreland off waivers from the Houston Texans. The team had already shown interest in him before, but he was claimed by the Texans instead. Morelands was drafted by Washington in 2020, and his only career pick came when he intercepted Carson Wentz in the first game of the 2020 season. He will compete with Josiah Scott for a backup nickel cornerback spot behind Avonte Maddox.
Pittsburgh Steelers 2022 OTA practices start on Tuesday. There will be six sessions in total. The team's mandatory minicamp starts on June 1st. Seven questions remain unanswered. The biggest question is whether or not Stephon Tuitt will play for the team in 2022. Other questions include who will start at center and who is going to be the new right guard. It's also unclear if the defensive end will come to the OTO sessions. He missed the entire 2021 season. His dead money can be deferred until 2023. Pittsburgh didn't draft a center this year. They did sign two players in free agency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers had to do unusual things to make ends meet during World War II. Many players were classified 4F which meant they were medically ineligible for military service. One player from the war time Steelers, Anthony J. Bova, played football for St. Francis in Pennsylvania in 1942. He was blind in one eye and legally blind the other. The U.S. Navy decided to discharge him shortly after reporting for duty. He played the 1942 season with the Steelers starting 10 games. They finished second in the Eastern Conference.
Nick Foles signed a two-year deal with the Indianapolis Colts. The Philadelphia Eagles were interested in a reunion with him. Fols led the team to Super Bowl LII. He will be reunited with Frank Reich, his offensive coordinator. He is also a former teammate of Carson Wentz, who was traded to the Washington Commanders. His contract with Indianapolis is less than half what he got with Jacksonville Jaguars and the Rams. It's worth noting that he will serve as a backup to Matt Ryan. he is a journeyman outside of Philadelphia. his contract at the Jaguars was less generous than at his previous stops.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are having their first training camp without Ben Roethlisberger. Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph are the only players who are competing to replace him. The team has three preseason games this year and there are good odds on a different quarterback starting each of them.
Easton Stick was drafted in the fifth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. He was a day three pick and the team still had Philip Rivers. The team was going to draft a first-round quarterback in 2020. Stick has played one NFL snap in regular season. He is entering the last year of his rookie deal. If anything happens to Justin Herbert, the Chargers will be in a massive hole.