NFL betting week 2: To bet on regression or not – Pointspread and odds – Bills, Giants

17 September 2022 One of NFLbets’ first impulses in week 2 is to begin looking for regression. Both in terms of standard win-loss record and ATS record, the majority of teams tend toward a .500 mark. This simple check is not quite so dependable in week 2, however, as by definition half the NFL’s teams haven’t yet played a home game. Additionally, even the oddsmakers do not have a firm grip on some teams this early into a season. Half the games in week 2 pit a 1-0 ATS team against an 0-1 ATS team:

  

• Carolina Panthers +1½ at New York Giants
• New York Jets +6½ at Cleveland Browns
• New England Patriots -2½ at Pittsburgh Steelers
• Atlanta Falcons +10 at Los Angeles Rams
• Seattle Seahawks +9 at San Francisco 49ers
• Houston Texans +10 at Denver Broncos
• Chicago Bears +10 at Green Bay Packers
• Tennessee Titans +9½ at Buffalo Bills

NFLbets will eliminate from possible wagering the Patriots-Steelers and Seahawks-49ers games; we’re making over/under bets on these precisely because we don’t want to pick a SU winner. The 0-1 Jets and Bears don’t seem likely to cover even with healthy handicaps, while the Broncos and Rams are giving way too many points at 0-1 ATS to consider. This leaves us with two possibilities:

• Carolina Panthers +1½ at New York Giants
• Tennessee Titans +9½ at Buffalo Bills

And NFLbets is going to have to zag on both.

Tennessee Tians +9½ at Buffalo Bills
Tennessee should be extremely concerned about last week’s game in New York, a game in which the defense generated five sacks and two turnovers while the Titans’ passing game was 110 yards better than the Giants’ – yet they were outscored 21-8 in the second half. Aside from his long of just 18 yards, Derrick Henry averaged 3.4 yards per on 20 carries. Meanwhile, the Bills looked crazy good, extending to eight games their streak of scoring 27 points or more; Buffalo has averaged 32.6 over that span, and NFLbets does not believe the Titans can get over 21 points right now – particularly when facing the no.1 defense of 2021. Take the Buffalo Bills -9½ vs Tennessee.

Carolina Panthers +1½ at New York Giants
This is what happens when you pick a surprise team to make the playoffs: They surprise you – in the wrong way. NFLbets is all-out on the 2022 Carolina Panthers as the no. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs. (We’re into the Seahawks for at least a week.)

Fair enough, Carolina faced a very talented Cleveland Browns side last week, but some of these offensive numbers are pitiful: The Panthers managed just 15 first downs and *54* yards rushing with Christian McCaffrey good for just 33 yards on 10 carries while the defense surrendered an insane 217 yards rushing. How much do you figure Saquon Barkley, who looked like Jim Brown last week against the Titans, will fare against this D?

NFLbets figures the Giants are that team the sportsbooks can’t quite get a hold on early. Take the Carolina Panthers +1½ at the Giants.