NFL week 4 game scores, adjusted for point spreads

Homefield advantage was non-existent again this week, with visitors a solid 7-7-1 SU/8-6-1 ATS – we’re not including the game in London, which ever only counts as a real home game for the Jacksonville Jaguars – and NFLbets still doesn’t understand what happened in the Cleveland-Atlanta game. We’re not exactly sure what this means, except maybe a couple more home teams than usual might be worth the wagers this week…

Below runs the Official NFLbets ATS-Adjusted Scoreboard™, which runs down the week’s scoreboard adjusting for bettors. Note: Scores in bold denote those games in which the SU winner did not cover ATS.

•  Cincinnati Bengals 23½ at Miami Dolphins 15. Dolphins backers can’t exactly make the case for most beleaguered NFL fanbase, but four games into the 2022 season and we’re seeing a neatly compressed version of the franchise since Dan Marino’s second year: On top of a suspended owner who attempted to bribe a head coach into losing, your seeming franchise quarterback is shoved into a game four days after “not” suffering a concussion with hardly unexpected results. Team of destiny? More like team of density…

•  Minnesota Vikings 25, New Orleans Saints 25. How do you translate “double doink” into British? How about “At least I got the push”…?

•  Los Angeles Chargers 28, Houston Texans 24. It was maybe about halfway through the third quarter when NFLbets suddenly remembered that, hey, this is the same Chargers team that closed last season with a 1-3 SU/ATS stumble and missed the playoffs. In fact, after starting the 2021 season 4-1 SU/ATS, they’re 7-9 ATS/SU. The conclusion: Name players aside, as this coaching staff is currently comprised, the Chargers are a mediocre, 3rd place-looking team.

•  Seattle Seahawks 48 at Detroit Lions 41½. Scorigami!

•  Philadelphia Eagles 22½, Jacksonville Jaguars 21. Perpetual beatdogs turn in a one-score loss to probably the top team in the league, and the headlines are all about Trevor Lawrence’s four fumbles. A step on the journey, Grasshopper.

•  Atlanta Falcons 23, Cleveland Browns 19. With the SU/ATS win, the Atlanta Falcons move up to 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS, making them the sole undefeated team ATS thanks to the Lions loss. The race is now on between regression to the mean and the oddsmakers figuring out this ragtag bunch…

•  Las Vegas Raiders 29½, Denver Broncos 23. Congratulations to the Raiders, who in the Denver game became not only the last NFL team to notch a win this season, but the last to notch an ATS win as well.

•  New York Giants 17, Chicago Bears 14. NFLbets is thanking the football gods for the upcoming 3-game run of Giants games: at Green Bay, vs Baltimore and at Jaguars. The G-men have run up three wins against marginal sides at best (at Tennessee, vs Carolina, vs Chicago) and we’ll be glad when it’s safe against to bet against them.

•  New York Jets 24 at Pittsburgh Steelers 16½. Going into week 5, the question for prospective New York Jets better is which among these is most compelling: the Jets’ loss-win-loss-win SU/ATS pattern, the fact that they’re beating mediocre teams and falling against superior, and/or the return of QB Zach Wilson, who looked amazingly good against Pittsburgh.

•  Arizona Cardinals 26 at Carolina Panthers 15. Okay, Matt Rhule (and those who kinda foolishly bet on his Panthers in this game) did not need this loss – and in week 5 his boy Baker Mayfield matches up against this ridiculous 49ers defense? Apparent vote of confidence, NFLbets has to believe the clock is ticking in Charlotte…

•  Tennessee Titans 24 at Indianapolis Colts 13½. So. Titans up 24-10 with 20 seconds or so before halftime. Oops, the clock is running, gotta hustle the kicking team out there. D’oh, the guy playing wide right on the OL trips and falls before he can set. Oops, out of time. Zero points socred for the rest of the game – an easy wager in live betting – Titans win regardless. NFLbets can’t decide whether the Titans or Colts are more smh worthy… 

•  New England Patriots 24 at Green Bay Packers 17½
•  Buffalo Bills 20 at Baltimore Ravens 20
•  Kansas City Chiefs 41 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30. Quarterback comparison update: Arron Rodgers is 38 and is no Tom Brady. Tom Brady is no longer Tom Brady. Lamar Jackson defies comparison altogether and will probably win the 2022 NFL MVP award. Josh Allen is pretty freakin’ awesome, but he just simply is not Patrick Mahomes. And Bailey Zappe? Welllllll … did you know he holds the NCAA football all-time records for passing yards and passing TDs in a season?

•  San Francisco 49ers 22, Los Angeles Rams 9. The NFC West is becoming one tough play this year, with every team at 2-2 SU/ATS, except the Rams at 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS – but isn’t this what we were expecting upon the season schedule release and during the preseason? Note to self: If you think all four teams in a division are good, don’t play the over on any win totals greater than 8½.

– written by Os Davis

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