Week 6 NFL Betting: Time to take advantage of inexplicable hype

Saturday, 17 October 2020 17:51 EST

Most of the NFL point spreads, individually speaking, are logical at the sportsbooks for week 6; however, at least two stick out like broken ribs. And if you think NFLbets is going to take advantage of the hype on a certain prospective Hall of Fame quarterback and a certain NFC North team known most for a Saturday Night Live skit about its fans, you’re absolutely correct. So let’s get to betting on…

Green Bay Packers -1½ at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFLbets has scoured the history and statistics on this one but has found nothing significant enough to dissuade us from goggling at this spread, which has shifted 2½ points since release and is still far too long.

In games following a bye week, Rodgers's Packers are a respectable 7-5 SU and a nice 8-3-1 ATS. A bit concerning, however, is his 1-4 SU/1-2-1 ATS run. Equally as concerning is the Packers’ current 4-0 SU/ATS record; NFL bettors should always seek the end of such streaks to take advantage. Could this be the reason the Packers started the week as underdogs in this game…?

While neither team has taken on many serious contenders through 4 or 5 games, the Packers have played at the proper level in running up 38.0 points per game with a statistically no. 1 offense in points, yardage, turnovers lost and time of possession. The Buccaneers looked great in betting up the “Los Angeles” Chargers in week 4 but couldn’t score three TDs at Chicago.

As we’re all well aware, opposing Aaron Rodgers at QB is Tom Brady. Since 2009, Brady has an impressive personal mark of 26-8 SU/25-7 ATS in games following a loss. Perhaps it is for this that Tampa Bay started as 1-point favorites last Monday.

But – and this is a bold statement, for sure – the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are no Belichick ‘n’ Brady Patriots. The Bucs are dead last in penalties accrued (OK, technically Tampa Bay is tied in 31st with the Arizona Cardinals, who are apparently still stamped with the Bruce Arians laissez-faire attitude) while guess which team is tops in least penalties. Meanwhile, Bucs’ rushing D has faced the least number of passing attempts all season: Great news for Aaron Jones, who gets to build on his 509 total yards and 6 touchdowns after Green Bay builds up a, likesay, 17-3 lead after two quarters.

NFLbets just isn’t seeing the Buccaneers keeping the score to within 2 points; only a peak Brady drive might save them in this game, and that Maserati left the showroom a while ago. Take the Packers -1½ at Tampa Bay.

Chicago Bears +1 at Carolina Panthers

Soooooo, is it Nick Foles…?

Seriously, NFLbets is even more baffled by this line than the Green Bay-Tampa Bay spread – and at least that one’s normalizing back in the correct team’s favor.

Through five games, the Panthers are among the NFL’s most pleasant surprises, right up there with Odell Beckham not having yet popped off about some shit. After losing fantasy master Christian McCaffrey and the first two games to open the season, the Panthers are on a 3-0 SU/ATS run. Sure, said run of at Chargers, vs Cardinals at Falcons-with-exiting-coach isn’t exactly running the gauntlet but three consecutive Ws is an impressive feat for an ostensibly rebuilding team.

NFLbets supposes the hype is keeping this point spread low; after all, the Bears are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS and are hanging with the Packers for first place in the NFC North! Well, as the man says, curb your enthusiasm. The Bears faced (maybe) the first playoff contender yet in 2020 last week, the Buccaneers, and yet still rank a lowly 27th in offensive scoring.

On top of this is the pendular nature of luck. Already in 2020, the Bears are playing 1.6 wins above their Pythagorean Expectation (PE) wins, a metric that seeks to measure luck and other random factors assisting in a team’s fortunes. To understand what an outlier this is, consider that the 2018 “Los Angeles” Chargers went 12-4 SU based on a 7-1 away record; that team went +1.6 PE *for the season*.

Prepare for some serious exposure: We believe the Bears’ shortcomings will be bared by a surprisingly hungry Carolina side. Take the Carolina Panthers -1 vs Chicago.

NFLbets’ current record in 2020: 8-7-2.

–written by Os Davis