Let’s get right into this week’s betting, as we’re looking to recoup week 6 losses; the Giants’ SU loss/ATS win against the Eagles on Thursday Night Football got us back to 50/50 on official NFLbets Best Bets in 2020 and we’re looing to keep on rolling. Let’s start with an apparent tricky one (though not as spellbinding as the Dallas-Washington “pick ´em” or San Francisco 49ers +2 at New England), namely…
In a matchup of two of the league’s remaining undefeated teams, NFLbets is siding with what could be destiny. But let’s speak pragmatically first.
Last week, in the other conference, the Green Bay Packers were rolling heading into their game with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Pack brought what was the league’s no. 1 passing offense and the tops in scoring. After receiving the Buccaneers’ butt-drumming, Packers backers (ahem) then stupidly went back to look at the record: Against a schedule of at Minnesota, vs Detroit, at New Orleans and vs Atlanta, 38 points per game doesn’t seem so Herculean. D’oh!
Into Nashville come the Steelers, looking for all the world like the best team in the AFC after pummeling their division “rival” Cleveland Browns in week 6. The Pittsburgh offense powered by the resurrected Ben Roethlisberger and made enthralling by wunderkind WR Chase Claypool is now averaging 31.2 points per game while the defense is top three in points allowed, yardage allowed, interceptions and most rushing categories. Pittsburgh feels like the winner here, and – not so fast, as they say, Johnson.
The schedule reads: at New York Giants, vs Denver, vs Houston, Covid-induced bye week, vs Philadelphia, vs Cleveland. That’s right: Four home games and just one against a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Tians have eked out three SU wins in which they didn’t cover the spread, a hard-fought overtime W against Houston and the blowout of Buffalo after two weeks of ostensibly not practicing. (Either Mike Vrabel’s got Bill Belichick’s gift for genius playcalling or he’s got this former HC”s gift for seamless, likesay, bending the rules – either way, it’s an obvious plus for the Titans.)
In a game between two teams of outlier numbers – the Steelers are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS; the Titans are 5-0 SU yet just 2-3 ATS – we’re going to have to depend on the football, including competition to date. The Pittsburgh D may be no. 1 against the run, but they’ve yet to face a beast like the heating-up Derrick Henry, who blew up for 264 total yards and 3 TDs against the Texans.
And if you’re wanting to play the Team of Destiny card in 2020, the Titans would hardly be the worst bet. Vrabel brough these guys to the AFC Championship Game last season, Ryan Tannenhill is continuing his excellent-yet-variable play and, as the Buffalo game suggested, may be among the best-coached NFL teams. On this Sunday, we’re expecting the difference to show. Take the Tennessee Titans -1 (or SU) against Pittsburgh.
And now we come full circle … sort of. Jon Gruden and his Raiders host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whom he once coached to a Super Bowl, led by Tom Brady, whose rookie-season Tuck Rule maneuver eliminated the then-Oakland Raiders from the playoffs and precipitated Chucky’s departure to Florida.
But screw all that historical mumbo jumbo – That’s for pregame show goofballs to wax nostalgic about irrelevantly. NFLbets is here for the betting and, since we’re still not confident enough to gauge these Buccaneers overall (i.e. So now they’re running on all cylinders, but how much gas does Brady really have left in the tank?), we’re just looking for lots of points.
Las Vegas and the online sportsbooks have readjusted after some early, likesay, issues in determining over/unders. Through week 4, overs were winning at a 36-26-1 pace; in weeks 5 and 6, overs hit on just 11 of 28 games, regressing the overall mark to 47-43-1 – essentially a reset. Thus does 52 points for this game feel quite possibly far too low.
Currently, Vegas is 6th in scoring, Tampa Bay is 8th. The Raiders pass defense is … well, you’ve seen the pass defense, the end result of Gruden shifting the team’s entire emphasis to offense, specifically passing and pass blocking, as is his wont. The Buccaneers are statistically no. 1 overall in passing yards allowed, but didn’t see a A-level quarterback until last week, when they drew a hungover (or possibly still unconscious) Aaron Rodgers.
On top of this, Gruden and the Raiders got an extra bye week through schedule-shuffling, which bodes extremely well for the over. In his career, Gruden’s teams are a nice 8-5 SU/9-4 ATS – though the Raiders are 0-2 in these games since Chucky’s return. And the over in such games after Gruden cooks up a scheme is 9-4, including a 2-0 mark with the present iteration of the team. The average score between these two teams in 2020 would result in a final score of Raiders 30, Buccaneers 29½; we figure this one will be right in line. Take over 52 points for Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas.
NFLbets’ current record in 2020: 9-9-2.
Visit our sportsbook partners for latest odds, betting options and bonuses
