Thursday Night Football: Betting Green Bay -7½ at San Francisco

Thursday, 05 November 2020 17:42 EST

We’re halfway through the 2020 season somehow, but this is no time to sentimentalize! Let’s get back to the betting, namely Thursday Night Football in week 9 and the line of…

Green Bay Packers -7½ at San Francisco 49ers, over/under 48 points

Clearly the sportsbooks are taking injuries far more than home field into account for this line. For this game, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tevin Coleman, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have joined a list of injuries substantial enough to form a starting roster from.

Not that the 49ers have been much to speak of thus far in 2020; the 4-4 SU/ATS record belies the unmet expectations of the defending NFC champions. The four losses have come against teams that are a combined 6-24-1 SU, and their sole impressive game was against the Rams in week 7.

Green Bay has gone from swaggering to staggering in the past three weeks in taking pretty emphatic losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings in that time. Excepting these losses, however, the Packers are a nice 5-0 SU/ATS – though admittedly the Packers’ schedule has been about as weak as the 49ers’, with just two games against teams over .500.

The Packers defense is fairly mediocre in most areas and rank bottom-3 in turnovers, bagging just one interception since the week 3 games against the Giants; luckily for them, the 49ers offense is also top-3 in giveaways.

Finally, as Packers backers and Packers bettors will tell you, Aaron Rodgers is the key factor. In his career, Rodgers’ Green Bay teams have gone 9-5 SU/9-4-1 ATS in Thursday (a.k.a. short-week) games including the current 4-1-1 ATS streak. And of the last 24 Packers games, the offense went 14 without surrendering a turnover – and they’re 14-0 SU/ATS in those games. Normally, this stat wouldn’t be eminently notable with the 49ers in the NFL’s top-10 for picks but, again, injuries: Three of the four starters in the San Francisco secondary are out this week.

In the end, then, we’ll figure that Rodgers and his guys can do enough to cover that touchdown plus; we’re not certain the second-string 49ers are as bad as a New York team and thus get steamrolled, but we’re confident enough to say take the Green Bay Packers -7½ at San Francisco and we’ll take the under on an O/U of 48 as well.

Now let’s have some sanity for just one Thursday night, all right, 2020…?

–written by Os Davis

Key Injuries

Green Bay: Christian Kirksey LB (Questionable), Allen Lazard WR (Questionable), Kevin King CB (Questionable), Aaron Jones RB (Questionable), David Bakhtiari T (Questionable), Lane Taylor G (Out).

San Francisco: Trent Williams T (Out), Kendrick Bourne WR (Questionable), Brandon Aiyuk WR (Out), George Kittle TE (Out), Dante Pettis (Questionable), Tevin Coleman RB (Questionable), Jaquiski Tartt S (Questionable), Jimmy Garoppolo QB (Out), Raheem Mostert RB (Out), Deebo Samuel WR (Out), Jeff Wilson RB (Out), Dee Ford DE (Out), Nick Bosa DE (Out), Solomon Thomas DE (Out), Ezekiel Ansah DE (Out), Richard Sherman CB (Out), Ronald Blair III DE (Out), Jalen Hurd WR (Out), Weston Richburg C (Out), Jordan Reed TE (Probable).