NFLbets swears we’re not chasing losses; we just dig on betting Monday Night Football. Yes, we took a beatdown on Sunday, but past is past as they say, and who can resist on betting a dandy like…
Even more than in the Rams’ run to the Super Bowl two seasons ago, this team depends on a tightly-run game plan designed to get the offense to generate any early lead and the defense to hold said lead. And whoa, are the results as stark as the description: When the 2020 L.A. Rams have the lead after the first quarter, they’re 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS; when leading after the first half, 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS; and when behind at the half, the Rams are a sad 1-3 SU/ATS – and the sole win came in week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys.
More damning for the Rams is their weak 1-2 SU/ATS against prospective playoff teams (though technically their mark is 2-2 SU because the Rams have already run the table against the four NFC East teams).
From the Rams’ perspective, the smart bet might simply be to wait until the end of the first quarter, go live betting and wager accordingly. But the NFLbets editor wants more than this, so we’ll have to consider how Tampa Bay stacks up here. And whoa, have these Buccaneers proven difficult to gauge this season. Not including the ridiculous 38-3 pummeling by the New Orleans Saints, the Bucs win Q1 by just about ½-point per game and the first half by just under 4.
The real key to this game might be blowing past the reputations of both teams, however.
For example: Even the most ardent drinkers of Tom Brady’s dietician-approved Kool-Aid will admit that his efficiency decreases when he’s pressured by defenses. And we all know that the Rams defense is pretty freakin’ awesome: This D is statistically top-3 in points allowed, yards allowed, passing yards allowed and first downs allowed, and ranks top-10 in most DVOA categories.
But while everyone else was watching Brady and/or Aaron Donald, guess whose defense ranks no. 1 in passing DVOA? That’s right: Tampa Bay’s, and they’ve also amassed 32 QB sacks, exactly one more than have the Rams. Additionally, would you believe the single worst quarterback in the NFL when pressured is Jared Goff? (Those who’ve seen him play enough this season would believe so…)
So again, NFLbets is splitting the difference on this one. We’re saying take the Los Angeles Rams +5 and take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML at -230. Plus, with defenses like these – NFLbets doesn’t care how unpredictable the 2020 Effect makes everything – we’re thinking take the under on an O/U of 48½…
–written by Os Davis
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