It’s yet another chapter in the too-long annals of NFL betting in 2020. Monday Night Football featured a classic last-second bet flip in which the Philadelphia Eagles, after getting outclassed by the Seattle Seahawks for 59½ minutes, scored a garbage time touchdown and the 2-point conversion to backdoor cover on Eagles +6½ and Eagles +7.
But hey, that’s your typical strategic football that’s bad for bettors: Those of us who lost on Cardinals -3 two weeks ago because a kneeldown in lieu of an extra-point try correctly followed the miraculous Hail Murray catch by DeAndre Hopkins.
No big deal – outcomes like these happen all the time in NFL betting – but this Wednesday Afternoon Football weirdness is 99⅞% pure 2020 madness. A month ago, NFLbets (and pretty sure we weren’t alone on this) had Baltimore ending the 2020 Steelers’ undefeated run in the primetime Thanksgiving Day game in Pittsburgh; we were all set to plunk down the bankroll on the Ravens ML, Ravens plus-however many, o boy.
The opening lines for Baltimore at Pittsburgh in week 12 was set at Ravens +4 or +4½ -- but as T-giving approached, Covid-19 crept into Ravens land and varied reports appeared on the numbers who had succumbed. The game was rescheduled for Sunday but prior to that, Lamar Jackson went down as well and the game was moved to Tuesday and finally Wednesday after the team was cleared to travel(!) to Pennsylvania.
Today – gameday – the lines say…
As many as 14 players could be ineligible to play in the game, and the Ravens’ practice squad callups will likely be announced just a few hours before game time. However, hardcore Ravens fans are the only ones who can benefit from this information. Beyond this, offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris and RBs coach Matt Weis will not be in attendance due to as-yet unspecified illness; subbing in are assistant OL coach Rich Angelo and co-RBs coach Craig Ver Steeg.
Thanks to the virus sweeping through the RB corps, Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins are technically eligible after quarantining but did not travel and thus will not play. Starting at QB is Robert Griffin III, who last started against the Steelers to cap the 2019 with a win; Trace McSorley, who has exactly zero pass attempts in his NFL career, will serve as backup.
On the offensive line for the Ravens will be … well, who knows? Few will until as shortly as three hours before gametime, when the 14 potential absences may be whittled down further. Check your rosters and pre-game shows before betting.
The Steelers are not only stacking up the straight-up wins in 2020, they’ve been killing the pointspread as well at 8-2 ATS. Could RG3 and a patchwork offense keep this game to within a couple of scores? The smart money says yes, despite (or perhaps precisely because of) the bizarre results these Covid-19 absences and rescheduling have produced.
As for the over/under, the gut reaction would be to bank on the under, despite the super-low line of 42½ points. Applying reverse logic, the only way the Ravens can stay competitive in this game, i.e. within 10½ points, you’d think they’ll have to control clock, suggesting an under. Alternatively, a tighter margin of victory could also imply the Steelers offense having an off day as well…
Pittsburgh has been facing some low unders in the supposedly scoring-heavy ’20 season – the Steelers have already played five games with spreads of lower than 44½ points, and overs in their games are 4-4-2. What’s more, only twice this season have Steelers games produced 42 points or fewer: at the New York Giants in week 1 and at Jacksonville last week. At kickoff, the temperature is expected to peak at about 40⁰F, which might also lower scoring a bit.
And so with a bit of ill logic (hey, this is 2020, after all), we’re saying take the Baltimore Ravens +10½ at Pittsburgh and take the under on an O/U of 42½ points.
A super-brief history of the last Wednesday NFL game
A Wednesday game isn't unprecedented in the NFL: It's happened five times in the league's history, albeit just once after 1948.
In 2012, the Opening Day game was announced as the Dallas Cowboys at the defending champion New York Giants (and if the Giants hadn't been so proficient in tormenting Matt Lyght in particualr, it might've been Indianapolis Colts at New Engaldn Patritos). The twist was that, rather than the traditonal Thursday Night kickoff, the Cowboys-Giants game would be an utlra-rare edition of Wednesday Night Football.
As incredible as it may seem, the NFL moved its season kickoff back one day so as not to conflict with then-POTUS Barack Obama's speech ... at the Democratic Convention.
NFLbets isn't 100% sure whether Goodell et al were worried about losing the ratings battle or showing some odd kind of respect. One also wonders if any major sports league who do similarly, with so many mobile streaming options available; Thursday Night Football had no issues going head-to-head with the presidential debate in October. On the other hand, this game was scheduled for 3:40 pm ET because the broadcasting network, CBS, had promised the desired nighttime timeslot to … the lighting of the Christmas Tree at Rockefeller Center.
The moral: In 2012, the NFL bent to the president; in ’20, to corporate interests…
–written by Os Davis
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