Can NFLbets blame any amount of NFL bettors’ insanity on Covid-19? Because trends in this repeatedly reported upon proposition bet “New England Patriots Starting Quarterback in Week 1” can otherwise only be explained by our worst, most weak-minded tendencies.
According to a story posted at the official website of NESN, the New England Sports Network:
“[New England rookie quarterback Mac] Jones is dominating the bet count at one American sportsbook that is taking wagers on which quarterback will start for Bill Belichick in the Patriots’ season opener against the Miami Dolphins.
“FanDuel is reporting that 75% of its bets in the Pats QB market (sic) have been placed on Jones. The former Alabama signal caller is going off at +160 right now, so a $100 wager would win $160 and pay out $260 at the current price.”
The NESN goes on to note that 7 of 10 bettors playing the “Starting Patriots QB for Week 1” prop are covering Jones, and that the odds in the offering ran:
Cam Newton: -190
Mac Jones: +160
Jarrett Stidham: +900
Brian Hoyer: Not worth mentioning, apparently
Money has indeed apparently been flowing in on Jones in this prop.
On May 4 at DraftKings, Jones was fetching +500 while Newton drew an awful -400 and Stridham an even worse +600. Three weeks later, Jones was down to +275 payouts, Newton was up to -278 and Stidham had gone to a still unbettable +900.
The recent steep action on Jones (and in this proposition bet at all) can probably be attributed to the news that presumptive starter Cam Newton had injured his hand in OTAs five days ago.
The NFLbets hot take: None of these bets have any value. Kneejerk responses to clickbait headlines are all well and good in your free time, but in no fucking instance should you be betting without reading the lede paragraph. Better yet, wait a day or two before participating in any frivolous player prop bet like this.
Within 24 hours, Belichick had been quoted on Newton’s situation as unserious and that the quarterback “be all right.” With two days after reportage of the injury, not Jones but Stidham was taking the majority of snaps in practice sessions.
Now perhaps this is a fiendishly clever smokescreen by the EEEEevil genius Belichick, perhaps the man’s being stoic and would prefer the next injury to befall someone other than Jones, or perhaps a dozen other possibilities – but nothing thus far is indicates the rookie is the week 1 starter.
Geez, just on a very basic level, can we figure that maybe Belichick is calculating for a 17-game, i.e. long, schedule? Why wouldn’t the Patriots take a game or three to iron out kinks are let the more familiar QB run the offense? Why wouldn’t the Pats brain trust plan in advance with seven AFC teams making the playoffs?
As far as NFLbets is concerned, all signs continue pointing to Newton. If you insist on playing this bet, you’re playing a waiting game, asking yourself “Can the odds on Cam get even better…?” The line of -190 is a terrible payout, but can there be enough reality-deniers to continuing pushing this line to 1/1?
Folks, let’s be rational. That is your money out there, after all.
--written by Os Davis
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