Week 9 NFL betting: Broncos at Cowboys, Browns at Bengals, Packers at Chiefs

Saturday, 06 November 2021 22:13 EST

In week 9 of the 2021 NFL season, more stayaways than bettables populate the pointspread card. However, NFLbets has three games that we’re thinking should prove quite lucrative – or at least certain trends would imply. We’ll start with

Denver Broncos +10 at Dallas Cowboys

Okay, so the 2021 Denver Broncos have hardly been an attractive bet thus far: They’re 4-4 SU/ATS, with a 4-0 SU/ATS marks against the Jets, Giants, Jaguars and Washington FT; they’re 0-4 against the Raiders, Ravens, Steelers and Browns. But if you think that’s an outlier of a half-season, the big anomaly on the Cowboys’ side, as Dallas is a ridiculous 7-0 ATS while actually legitimately getting themselves into the Super Bowl conversation at 6-1 SU.

Now in no way are we suggesting that the Broncos will win this game but, simply put, the odds of that 7-0 continuing for another week are only getting longer. With Dak Prescott returning from injury and a W that will be pretty difficult to blow, why wouldn’t the Cowboys play conservative and feed Ezekiel Elliott? NFLbets says the numbers balance; take the Denver Broncos +10 at Dallas.

Cleveland Browns +2½ at Cincinnati Bengals

Two weeks ago, the Bengals beat the Baltimore Ravens and took over the no. 1 seed in the AFC. Last week, Cincinnati lost a shocker to the otherwise pretty hapless New York Jets. Meanwhile, Cleveland has cut ties with Odell Beckham, is piling up the injuries and is playing with a one-armed quarterback. (Baker Mayfield still has access to his throwing arm, but still…) Incidentally, the Browns are also on a 1-3 SU/ATS “run” and barely managed 10 points last week against the so-so Pittsburgh Steelers.

So what gives with this line? The bigger WTF/stayaway line is Los Angeles Chargers -1½ (or 2 or 1 or whatever) at Philadelphia Eagles, so NFLbets isn’t too concerned about random juju in this one. So we’re going to get back on the Bengals bandwagon here and say take the Bengals -2½ vs Cleveland – right now, the Bengals are just the more talented, less injured team.

Green Bay Packers +7½ at Kansas City Chiefs

Can we all just please finally temper expectations for the 2021 Kanasas City Chiefs? The truth is that most of those futures involving Andy Reid’s guys are as good as null and void. For X number of reasons (NFLbets likes to begin with the crazy-bad defense and incomprehensibly discombobulated offensive line), these Chiefs are about a 9-8 team – and they’ve been overvalued by the bookmakers forever, with bettors constantly swallowing the bait.

Bettors paying the least bit of attention have probably recently heard that the Chiefs have gone 10-17 ATS in all games while running up a 20-7 SU record. Only twice in the 27 games were they underdogs: One was in game 16 of the 2019 regular season, with the second-string starting against the Chargers. The conclusion: The sportsbooks have been overvaluing the Chiefs since they won the Super Bowl.

Further, the only occasion on which the Chiefs have managed to win ATS against a team with a winning record was in last year’s AFC Championship Game against the Buffalo Bills. The conclusion: The sportsbooks have been seriously overvaluing the Chiefs since they won the Super Bowl.

Now certainly aware of this, the bookmarkers had opened this line at Chiefs -1 or -1½ but in the meantime, Aaron Rodgers was revealed to be a prima donna dipshit have contracted Covid-19. Starting QB will be filled this week then by Jordan Love, last season’s first-round draft pick who was subsequently treated like shit by Rodgers has only accrued seven pass attempts thus far, all in the blowout opening-week loss to New Orleans this season.

The question, then, all things considered is: Do you believe the Packers are a better than .500 team with Love at quarterback? We do. Take the Green Bay Packers +7½ at Kansas City.

–written by Os Davis

Os Davis has been covering sports for longer than he’d care to admit. For personality, check his Twitter feed; for professional acumen, here’s his Linkedin profile.