All right, it’s that time of year when NFLbets consider some early betting we’d like to do on the “Over/Under Win Total” proposition bet. We’ve got a breakdown of the standings table representing each team’s expected (by the sportsbooks) win total for the 2022 NFL season.
But first, a few preliminary findings from last year’s 32 win totals in the prop. While one season is a ridiculously small sample size from which to glean any useful information about overarching trends in the league, 2021 was the first and only 17-game NFL season thus far. Additionally, NFLbets believes that the results were fairly similar to those of recent seasons – albeit seemingly a bit extreme in ’21 – and that we can create some guidelines for successfully betting this prop in ’22.
Some key results from last year’s props include the following.
• Overall, 12 of the NFL’s 32 teams hit the over in the Over/Under Wins prop, 15 went under and 5 pushed.
• The most outstanding trend: Playoff teams went 12-0-2 in the over; even the Pittsburgh Steelers, who had no business in the playoffs by season’s end, had a 9-6-1 SU record to squeak out the over-9 wins.
• Teams forecast to have 7½ wins or fewer went 2-8-1 on overs; the sole teams to defy this trend were the playoff-bound Philadelphia Eagles and those surprising Cincinnati Bengals.
• Teams forecast to have 10 wins or more went 4-4-2 on overs overall, but 3-1-1 in the NFC. In fact, by the Over/Under Wins Total prop, sportsbooks picked all four winners of the NFC’s divisions: the Dallas Cowboys (over 9½), Green Bay Packers (over 11), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (over 11½) and Los Angeles Rams (over 10½).
Our two prime takaways:
• If you’re covering taking a team in the Over/Under Wins prop, you’d better believe they have at least a reasonable chance at the playoffs; and
• When making predictions of any sort prior to the season, pay attention to the lines in this prop. Bookmakers know what they’re talking about…
And now, the official NFLbets Over/Under Total Wins proposition bet standings table:
Buffalo Bills* – 12-5-0
Miami Dolphins – 9-8-0
New England Patriots – 8-8-1
New York Jets – 6-11-0
Baltimore Ravens* – 10-7-0
Cincinnati Bengals* – 10-7-0
Pittsburgh Steelers – 7-9-1
Cleveland Browns – OFF
Indianapolis Colts* – 10-7-0
Tennessee Titans – 9-7-1
Jacksonville Jaguars – 6-9-1
Houston Texans – 4-12-1
Kansas City Chiefs* – 10-6-1
Denver Broncos – * 10-7-0
Los Angeles Chargers* – 10-7-0
Las Vegas Raiders – 8-8-1
Dallas Cowboys* – 10-7-0
Philadelphia Eagles* – 9-7-1
Washington Commanders – 9-8-0
New York Giants – 7-10-0
Green Bay Packers* – 11-6-0
Minnesota Vikings* – 9-7-1
Chicago Bears – 6-10-1
Detroit Lions – 6-10-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers* – 11-5-1
New Orleans Saints – 8-8-1
Carolina Panthers – 6-10-1
Atlanta Falcons – 5-12-0
Los Angeles Rams* – 10-6-1
San Francisco 49ers* – 10-7-0
Arizona Cardinals – 8-8-1
Seattle Seahawks – 5-11-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins meet in a game of the 2022 NFL Preseason on August 13, 2022 at 7:30 PM (ET) at Raymond James Stadium. The home team has a big goal this season with their quarterback Tom Brady. Miami has new head coach and a stronger offensive strategy.
The Los Angeles Chargers are playing host to the Los Los Rams in their preseason opener. The team has completed two weeks of training camp practices. A good chunk of the starters won't play, so the evaluation will mainly be of rookies or players looking to earn a roster spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Miami Dolphins in the first preseason game of 2022. The game is on August 13, 2022 at 7:30 PM. Tom Brady is back for the Patriots. This is the third season for Tua Tagovailoa as the Dolphins' quarterback. Mike McDaniels will be the head coach for this team.
The Los Angeles Chargers and Los Los Angles Rams are playing in the NFL's preseason game at SoFi Stadium on Saturday night. The Rams won the Super Bowl last season and have expectations for this season. Matthew Stafford is unlikely to play much because of an elbow injury. Los Alesh has an open spot at right guard, and it will be settled between Logan Bruss, Coleman Shelton and Tremayne Anchrum Jr. The Chargers have a position battle at the right tackle, a running back position and a defensive position. They are 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 home games and 2-8 ATC in last 10 Saturday games.
Zach Wilson injured his right knee in the first quarter of Friday night's 24-21 preseason victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Jets coach Robert Saleh says initial tests on Wilson showed the ACL is intact. The team is waiting for the MRI on Saturday. Wilson had an up-and-down rookie season, throwing nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 13 games. He struggled with accuracy last season. Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts completed all six of his pass attempts for 80 yards and a touchdown. His first pass of the game was a badly thrown out-route intended for rookie first-round pick Garrett Wilson.
The San Francisco 49ers face the Green Bay Packers in a preseason game on August 12, 2022 (8/12/22) at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Local fans can watch the game for free via a trial of DirecTV Stream. Fans in neither market can use a free trial to fuboTV.
Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers are playing in the 2022 NFL preseason game tonight at Levi's Stadium. Kickoff is at 5:30 p.m. PT/8: 30 p., ET. The game will be broadcast on NFL Network and streamed on the NFL Plus. DirecTV Stream and fuboTV offer free trials for live streaming of NFL games.