NFL 2020 Over/under win totals: Six to watch in the NFC

13 March 2020

With days to go until the free agency period opens, it’s certainly waaaaaayyyy to early to be considering betting on NFL over/under win totals for 2020 – but with the coronavirus scare, there are no freakin’ sports on! At least Xbet, My Bookie and the online sportsbooks are still open. The early table for over/under win totals are as follows (numbers in parentheses indicate potential payout on an over or under bet)…

Arizona Cardinals: 6½ (-130, +100)
Atlanta Falcons: 8 (-115, -115)
Carolina Panthers: 6½ (+100, -130)
Chicago Bears: 8 (-130, +100)
Dallas Cowboys: 9½ (-130, +100)
Detroit Lions: 6½ (-150, +120)
Green Bay Packers: 9½ (+100, -130)
Los Angeles Rams: 8½ (-140, +110)
Minnesota Vikings: 9½ (+100, -130)
New Orleans Saints: 10 (-130, +100)
New York Giants: 6½ (+100, -130)
Philadelphia Eagles: 10 (-115, -115)
San Francisco 49ers: 10½ (-130, +100)
Seattle Seahawks: 9 (-105, -125)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7½ (-115, -115)
Washington: 5½ (-150, +120)

Again, seriously too early to tell, but NFLbets definitely has eyes to see what six of these teams do on Draft Day and in free agency. These are…

• We know it’s the Arizona Cardinals, but we’re leaning toward seeing a ½-game improvement from second-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury and second-year franchise QB Kyler Murray; note, too, that the bookmakers’ -130 is an indicator of where the sharp types are leaning. After all, the Cards’ main problem in 2019 was defending the pass, with the team D dead last in total yards allowed and bottom-5 in most passing stats. Plus, Arizona will enjoy a last-place schedule plus games against the AFC East and NFC East, which we could imagine producing six teams under .500.

• We’re also counting on a continued downturn from the Los Angeles Rams. Since the neo-Cinderella run of 2017, the Rams have steadily degenerated into a team that consistently performs at a lower standard than the names on the roster would indicate. From 2017 to ’19, the Rams have gone from no. 1 to no. 11 in scoring and a +149 point differential to a +30, and L.A. went 4-4 SU in the second half of the season, including a 1-4 mark against sub-.500 teams. And on top of everything else are these garbage logos? Take the under at +110 all day.

• Dallas Cowboys. For one reason or another – mostly “Why not?” – NFLbets is bullish on the Cowboys early in 2020. One would think that there’s enough talent here plus division mates who even more consistently underperform than the Rams, rebuilding or whatever the hell Washington does to get the ’Pokes to at least 9-7, though we’ll probably wait to see if/how Jerry Jones & Co. address the secondary in the offseason.

• Speaking of the NFC East, covering an under of 5½ wins is typically decidedly risky – but this is the Washington football team we’re discussing. In short, is any free gent willing to sign with what has been, since the 1980s, a shitshow? After disposing of Jay Gruden, the Washington brain trust went with Bill Callahan, who got the team a whopping 3-8 SU record under his leadership; is Washington really set to double its win output of 2019? If so, based on what?

• Finally, another couple of sacred cows to slaughter for the good of profit, namely the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints. The 2019 season represented the fourth year of the last five the Eagles “hit” the under in this prop and nothing shows that the Eagles are ready to “rebound” from, let’s face it, a smoke-and-mirrors run through the playoffs three seasons ago.

Meanwhile, anyone betting on New Orleans is apparently somehow hoping against hope that Drew Brees somehow magically morphs back into his 2017 self, but pragmatic thinkers should realize that’s not going to happen. Yes, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara were beastly again in 2019, and the offensive line was tops in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, but will, for example, Thomas go for *149* receptions again in 2020?

So is it NFLbets or are the Saints living on borrowed time? Has or has not Sean Payton been more or less living on his Super Bowl win since 2007? Just by the sheer numbers, we can’t honestly expect a fourth straight season of 11 wins or more? Here’s more if you need it: On the three occasions when Payton’s Saints were schedule against AFC West teams, New Orleans went 7-9, 7-9 and 8-8.

So shed the dogma of the past and cover unders on the Saints and Eagles in 2020. Probably. But after the draft, likesay…

– written by Os Davis

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