Los Angeles Rams over/under wins total: To fade or not to fade?

Is it us or are the Los Angeles Rams among the most undervalued Super Bowl champions in recent memory? Even the 2018 Philadelphia Eagles entered the preseason with 10/1 odds to repeat in Super Bowl LIII, second shortest only to the – you guessed it – defending AFC champion New England Patriots.

Well, the Rams enter 2022 at 11/1 to 12/1, fifth-favorites overall and fetching longer odds than one team that has never won a Super Bowl (the Buffalo Bills) and another that hasn’t been in a Super Bowl since the first Obama Administration (Green Bay Packers). About as puzzling is the Rams’ over/under in the “Total Wins” proposition bet: 10½, following a 12-win championship season.

The disdain for the Rams is so great that articles by “betting analyst” types such as this entitled “Why We’re Fading the Rams This Season.”

Unfortunately, the reasons cited to avoid betting the over on the 2022 Los Angeles Rams’ win total are kinda bunk. The two main points that come up always seem to be…

• “Stafford’s injury history is concerning.” Um, what? Since 2011 and until last year playing for the spend-nothing Detroit Lines, Stafford missed a total of eight games. The Rams may have had two departures from the OL (Austin Corbett to free agency, Andrew Whitworth to retirement) and Stafford may not throw as well against the blitz (who does?), but the NFL bettor cannot bet over/under wins total props considering injuries.

• “The schedule is tough.” By the metric of last year’s win totals, the Rams have the toughest schedule in 2022. The problem? This notion is based on *last year’s win totals*. Sure, the Rams have nine games against ’22 playoff contenders but five of those are against the San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders, none of which are considered very serious contenders this season. On top of this, two toughies will be played in L.A.’s home stadium: week 1 vs the Buffalo Bills, week 5 vs the Dallas Cowboys and week 17 “at” the Chargers.

So the defending Super Bowl champions with 10 home dates and six games against NFC West teams, each of which probably took a net negative for the off season? NFLbets says take over-10½ wins for the Los Angeles Rams.