San Francisco over/under 10 wins: Two major reasons to bet the under

The San Francisco 49ers are becoming quite the vogue pick as a Super Bowl contender and the Niners are projected as an elite team in 2022. The odds and line in NFL futures and preseason proposition bets reflect this:

• over/under win total: 10 (-110, -120)
• To make/miss the playoffs: -230/+170
• to win NFC West: +150
• to win NFC: +750
• to win Super Bowl LVII: 16/1

NFLbets would guess that more action in the “Regular Season Wins Total” prop is seeing well more action on the “over” side and for those bettors who are 49ers believers, -110 are pretty reasonable odds for this offering – as is that +150 payout on the Niners taking the NFC West.

But we’re zigging against popular expectations for two big reasons as follows.

• The schedule. When discussing the chances of the Los Angeles Rams to repeat, the Denver Broncos emerging with Russell Wilson plugged into the offense or the Las Vegas Raiders somehow putting all together finally in 2022, a pretty difficult schedule handed the West teams on both sides. Yet here are the 49ers looking at the 5th-ranked slate on the “Strength of Schedule” table.

In 2022, the 49res have been granted a decent start, with the first six games at Chicago Bears, vs Seattle Seahawks, at Denver Broncos, vs Los Angeles Rams, at Carolina Panthers, at Atlanta Falcons. With three expected bottom-feeders among that lot, the 49ers should expect at very least a 3-3 record. But the herky-jerky travel and quality of opponents makes NFLbets think that the Niners will be one bitch to bet through much of the season; we’re dreading upsets already…

The next stretch is the real doozy for San Francisco, though: vs Kansas City Chiefs, at Rams, bye, vs Los Angeles Chargers, at Arizona Cardinals, vs New Orleans Saints, vs Miami Dolphins, vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Visualize the 49ers getting out to a 4-2 or 5-1 start, only to dump six of seven to this competition.

• Trey Lance vs Kyle Shanahan (potentially). It’s not all Kyle Shanahan’s fault, NFLbets supposes. Before getting the position of head coach in San Francisco, he’d served as OC in Houston, Washington, Cleveland and Atlanta. The best quarterback he’d even gotten at his disposal was Matt Ryan and in Shanahan’s second season as Atlanta OC, the Falcons got to the Super Bowl and ran up a 28-3 lead on the New England Patriots.

So maybe the collapse of the Ryan-powered offense in that Super Bowl traumatized Shanahan, who since then has displayed a quite unseemly and irrational distrust of his starting quarterbacks. For reasons bordering on the insane, Shanahan has publicly shown little support of Jimmy Garoppolo, the guy who got the 49ers to within one play of winning the Super Bowl (or at least requiring some Mahomes final-minute heroics).

To cite one particularly good example of his passive-aggressive commentary, about seven months after the Super Bowl loss, the 49ers blew a September game. To media afterward, Shanahan “explained” that “You underthrow a ball and it makes it not perfect, so the receiver has to go up and make a play and they didn't…”

And like that. The stats show that in five years as 49ers head coach, the team has gone 31-14 in regular season games that Garoppolo starts, 8-28 in all others. And in the playoffs? 4-2 with Jimmy G. starting, 0-0 without.

All then might not be damning for the 49ers in 2022 if newly installed starter Trey Lance – with Garoppolo completely persona non grata – were any good. But the word coming out of Ninerland has been lukewarm at best. Unlike, likesay, New England Patriots beat coverage which contradicts itself on Mac Jones virtually daily, finding positive news on Lance is about as fruitful as finding Garoppolo a new team. Instead, highly descriptive headlines like “Trey Lance isn’t ready, and the 49ers have painted themselves into a corner” are the norm.

Think Shanahan’s patience can last through week 8 and a second loss to the Rams? Do you think Shanahan can handle Lance falling short of expectations with all the aplomb of a coach with an 8-28 career mark?

Yeah, us neither. Take the San Francisco 49ers under 10 wins.