NFLbets fully realizes that week 1 games in the NFL can be wildly susceptible to the unexpected – at least unexpected by dint of preseason expectations – but this is ridiculous. Seriously, would you believe that 10 of this week’s 16 games have kicked off/will kick off with 10 home underdogs? And the Cleveland at Carolina game is now a “pick ’em”!
A quick glance at some recent trends reveal that in week 1
Unfortunately, though the last stat indicates the 3½-point home underdogs have been hitting at a nearly 2-to-1 clip, this week 1’s opportunities to bet on this are none too appealing: Atlanta Falcons +5½ vs New Orleans Saints; Chicago Bears +6½ vs San Francisco 49ers; Detroit Lions +6 vs Philadelphia Eagles; Houston Texans +7 vs Indianapolis Colts; New York Jets +6½ vs Baltimore Ravens; Arizona Cardinals +6½ vs Kansas City Chiefs; and Seattle Seahawks +6½ vs Denver Broncos.
(Maybe Texans +7? Lions +6?!? You see what NFLbets is saying here…)
Instead, we’re looking at these three underdogs in week 1 … because sometimes you’ve got to take the points.
New England Patriots +3½ at Miami Dolphins
Both teams enter this season with a line of 8½ in the over/under wins total proposition bet, and if we’re talking about coaching advantage, particularly with the mathematics of first games coached by first-year HCs. And while all the positive hype is all Miami’s and the negative all New England’s, consider this trend begging for regression: Tua Tagovailoa is 2-0 SU/ATS career against Bill Belichick’s Patriots.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Washington Commanders
NFLbets argues our case for the Jaguars as the ultimate NFL Survivor Contest/Eliminator Pool pick for week 1. The short of this game is: With so many x-factors on each team and a medium-term history of losing for both, why wouldn’t you pick the team with a slightly more talented roster?
Minnesota Vikings +1 vs Green Bay Packers
Yeah, we know, we know. Every trand and stat seems to go against the Vikings in this one as well as their status as the vogue pick in the NC North. And NFLbets will admit our reasoning for this pick – other than the favorable odds – is all about the abstract, i.e. we’re thinking that Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell treats this as a must-win, a strategic leg-up in the division that he'd sacrifice the week 2 game at Philadelphia for. Go Vikings.
The 2022 draft was fair. Marcus Jones was the star of the class. The owner may be happy with the results. He said it. The reality needs to be explored and the illusory thinking exposed.
The Baltimore Ravens lost to Miami Dolphins 42-38 on Sunday. New England Patriots beat Pittsburgh Steelers 17-14 on the same day. The Patriots have six quarterback sacks and one interception. Lamar Jackson has passed for 531 yards and rushed for 119 yards in the loss. The Ravens have covered the number in each of their last four games following a loss ATS. Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Raven win and cover AATS 24-17. They play the New Patriots on September 25th.
Bill Belichick has won six Super Bowl titles and helped build one of the greatest dynasties in the NFL. The New England Patriots coach has failed to lead his team into the playoffs regularly since Tom Brady left in 2020. There are rumors that Belichick could step down from his post.
DraftKings Sportsbook has odds on who DeAndre Hopkins next team will be. Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs are among the favorites to trade for Hopkins.
Carolina Panthers asked to interview Jerod Mayo for their head coaching vacancy. Cleveland Browns are interested in him for a defensive coordinator position. The Patriots and Mayo are in negotiations to keep him with the team long term. They will also begin the process of interviewing offensive coordinator candidates next week. The team has been without an official defensive Coordinator since Matt Patricia left to coach the Detroit Lions in 2018.
The New England Patriots missed out on the playoffs and are looking forward to the offseason. Christian Gonzalez is picked by the Patriots in the 2023 NFL Mock Draft.
The New England Patriots lost five of their final seven games and missed the playoffs. The team's offensive coordinator Matt Patricia and their playcaller Joe Judge were terrible. Bill Belichick met with Robert Kraft after the season-ending loss to the Buffalo Bills. Both parties believe changes are in order. . The Patriots are not playing in the postseason for the second time in three years.
Bill Belichick confirmed Monday that he will be back in Foxborough for his 24th season in 2023. The news comes on the heels of New England's disappointing finish to an 8-9 season. New York Jets' coach Patience with the offensive coordinator position is a good idea. The team needs to find a new offensive coach in the offseason. Matt Patricia was the coordinator last year, but the team's offense took a step back under him. He should be relieved of his duties. It's a bad idea to keep an offensive or defensive coordinator in place for 2022.
Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots 35-23. It was the first game since Damar Hamlin's on-field cardiac arrest. Stefon Diggs caught seven of the 10 passes thrown his way for 104 yards and a touchdown. Tre’Davious White had his best game in a long time. Kaiir Elam was beaten downfield by DeVante Parker for a score.
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