NFL betting, week 1 -- Three underdogs we love against the spread (ATS) -- Odds, point spreads

10 September 2022

NFLbets fully realizes that week 1 games in the NFL can be wildly susceptible to the unexpected – at least unexpected by dint of preseason expectations – but this is ridiculous. Seriously, would you believe that 10 of this week’s 16 games have kicked off/will kick off with 10 home underdogs? And the Cleveland at Carolina game is now a “pick ’em”!

A quick glance at some recent trends reveal that in week 1

• Home teams are 39-38-2 SU and 36-40-3 ATS;
• Underdogs are 30-47-2 SU, but 42-34-3 ATS;
• Home underdogs are just 9-17-2 but 15-13 ATS; and
• Home underdogs went 9-5 ATS when getting 3½ more points.

Unfortunately, though the last stat indicates the 3½-point home underdogs have been hitting at a nearly 2-to-1 clip, this week 1’s opportunities to bet on this are none too appealing: Atlanta Falcons +5½ vs New Orleans Saints; Chicago Bears +6½ vs San Francisco 49ers; Detroit Lions +6 vs Philadelphia Eagles; Houston Texans +7 vs Indianapolis Colts; New York Jets +6½ vs Baltimore Ravens; Arizona Cardinals +6½ vs Kansas City Chiefs; and Seattle Seahawks +6½ vs Denver Broncos.

(Maybe Texans +7? Lions +6?!? You see what NFLbets is saying here…)

Instead, we’re looking at these three underdogs in week 1 … because sometimes you’ve got to take the points.

New England Patriots +3½ at Miami Dolphins
Both teams enter this season with a line of 8½ in the over/under wins total proposition bet, and if we’re talking about coaching advantage, particularly with the mathematics of first games coached by first-year HCs. And while all the positive hype is all Miami’s and the negative all New England’s, consider this trend begging for regression: Tua Tagovailoa is 2-0 SU/ATS career against Bill Belichick’s Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Washington Commanders
NFLbets argues our case for the Jaguars as the ultimate NFL Survivor Contest/Eliminator Pool pick for week 1. The short of this game is: With so many x-factors on each team and a medium-term history of losing for both, why wouldn’t you pick the team with a slightly more talented roster?

Minnesota Vikings +1 vs Green Bay Packers
Yeah, we know, we know. Every trand and stat seems to go against the Vikings in this one as well as their status as the vogue pick in the NC North. And NFLbets will admit our reasoning for this pick – other than the favorable odds – is all about the abstract, i.e. we’re thinking that Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell treats this as a must-win, a strategic leg-up in the division that he'd sacrifice the week 2 game at Philadelphia for. Go Vikings.