Upset special of week 3: Patriots +3 vs Ravens – NFL betting odds, picks

23 September 2022

This line is particularly indicative of where we are in the NFL, year 2022:

Baltimore Ravens -3 at New England Patriots, over/under 44 points

Historically speaking, Bill Belichick’s Patriots have been a thorn in the Ravens’ side, perhaps the only team to enjoy overwhelming success against what might be, on a consistency basis, the NFL’s single best franchise.

For the 21st century, the Patriots are a big 9-4 SU/6-6-1 ATS, including a 7-2 SU/4-4-1 ATS mark in Foxborough. And despite the Ravens’ usual reputation for fashioning awesome defenses, the over is a solid 8-5 in those 13 games.

But of course, since 2020, any Belichick-centric betting trend must run with the caveat “but that was with Tom Brady at quarterback.” Indeed, the last meeting of these teams came in ’20 while New England was running with Cam Newton at QB – and this was the first time *in the 21st century* that the Patriots were an underdog to the Ravens in Foxborough.

The 7-point underdog Patriots, naturally, won outright. Additionally, the under also paid out, the first time a Pats-Ravens game had hit an under since the AFC Championship game in 2013. This feels more like the result we’ll get in New England’s home opener this week.

In 2022, the Ravens have scored a rather uncharacteristic 62 points in their first two games against pretty hapless defenses of the Jets and Dolphins. The Patriots have nowhere near the firepower of the hyperquick Dolphins offense, but the defense may be one of the league’s tops.

Then there’s the injury list. Here’s the official word from Ravens twitter this week:

Mark Andrews would be a lot deadlier a weapon for this offense were he not the sole top-tier player uninjured.

NFLbets has previously concluded that the Patriots are a safe bet for the under until further notice. We’re also figuring the gaudy numbers put up on the scoreboards by Baltimore thus far are due for some serious regression to the mean, particularly if Lamar Jackson isn’t romping like he used to: Excepting the 79-yarder against Miami last week, Jackson has run just 14 times for 56 yards – 4.0 per carry is hardly a dominating threat.

So bet this one like it’s 1983! Take the New England Patriots +3 vs Baltimore and take the under on an O/U of 44 points.

– written by Os Davis