Week 7 felt like a turning point in the season, a good time to finally come to terms with certain realities, some harder to accept than others, but all necessary for the NFL bettor to assimilate and wager accordingly.
Below runs the Official NFLbets ATS-Adjusted Scoreboard™ for week 6, a rundown of results adjusting for bettors by factoring in the point spread for each game at kickoff. Note: Scores in bold denote those games in which the SU winner did not cover ATS.
• Arizona Cardinals 39½, New Orleans Saints 34. For the next few weeks, NFL bettrs should at very least be considering the over in Cardinals games. Why? Here’s the fulcrum for the remainder of the season, Kyler Murray patiently explaining to Kliff Kingsbury that he can help the team score points:
The TNF cameras picked up some K1 frustration after the Cardinals burned their last timeout of the half. pic.twitter.com/59iY5Nvmsg— Tyler Drake (@Tdrake4sports) October 21, 2022
• Washington Commanders 23, Green Bay Packers 16½
• Carolina Panthers 21, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10. An uncomfortable truth that the NFL bettor can exploit: Aaron Rodgers’s and Tom Brady’s teams aren’t very good at all, and both these QBs are done for the regular season. Certainly many fans believe that Brady will merely flip the switch in the postseason for the Bucs to go deep in the playoffs and TB not to look like a total chump in his final year playing. But for now, the Packers losing to an NFC doormat and the Buccaneers playing the worst game ATS as a favorite in 2022, NFL bettors can probably confidently fade both these teams for weeks to come.
• New York Jets 14½ at Denver Broncos 9
• Cleveland Browns 20 at Baltimore Ravens 16½. Remember how in the preseason, the wisdom was that DeShaun Watson would be able to step in in week 10 and somehow get the Browns to 10 wins? Yeah, well, with the AFC East producing perhaps three contenders, the 2022 Cleveland Browns playoff run ain’t happening.
• Cincinnati Bengals 28½, Atlanta Falcons 17. More significant reality presented by this game The Falcons’ tyranny against the spread is finished or the beast in Cincinnati has awakened? Discuss.
• New York Giants 23 at Jacksonville Jaguars 14. After another silly loss, the Jaguars are now on an 0-4 SU/ATS stumble and should likely be considered toast once again. The sick thing is that they’re imminently bettable next week at home-away-from-home in the UK against the Broncos. But after that, no fucking way should anyone bet on the Jags for another month or so.
• Kansas City Chiefs 41 at San Francisco 49ers 23. Buffalo looks good and Cincinnati’s coming up strong but reality check: Kansas City still has Patrick Mahomes.
• Tennessee Titans 16½ at Indianapolis Colts 10. In recent years, NFLbets has endorsed that NFL bettors simply ignore AFC South intradivisional games – but we’re adapting that strategy after this game. The Titans are now on a 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS run against their division mates, with the average outcome a 7- or 8-point Titans win. Tennessee has no more games against Indy this season, but factoring in the Texans’ status as possibly the NFL’s worst team and the Jaguars’ propensity to jaguar, the Titans could easily sweep SU/ATS…
• Las Vegas Raiders 31, Houston Texans 20. NFLbets does still not believe in the Raiders’ offensive line very much, but after Vegas took care of business against Houston and are looking at a schedule of at New Orleans, at Jacksonville, vs Indianapolis and at Denver, the Raider bandwagon could gain some NFL bettors in November.
• Dallas Cowboys 17½, Detroit Lions 6. Scariest realization of the week: This defense carrying the Cowboys to the Super Bowl, à la the 2015 Denver Broncos, feels like an intensely real possibility…
• Pittsburgh Steelers 10 at Miami Dolphins 8½
• Seattle Seahwaks 37 at Los Angeles Chargers 18½
• Chicago Bears 33 at New England Patriots 5. After the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl LV, most NFL observers immediately transferred much of the credit to New England’s incredible 20-year run to QB Tom Brady rather than head coach Bill Belichick, many suddenly mentally reducing the importance of the HC in the NFL: “Why not?” went the reasoning, “The players have to play the game.” Fair enough, but the 2022 season gives us an opportunity to observe a couple of other long-term coaches in a similar situation to Belichick’s. With the Steelers and Seahawks, Mike Tomlin and Pete Carroll are bereft of career-long franchise quarterbacks and mostly devoid of name players anywhere on the roster. Why these coaches haven’t been receiving more credit in mainstream media is beyond us and frankly – depending on the final standing of Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings – Carroll should be frontrunner for the Coach Of The Year award.
As for Belichick and his personal purgatory, well, he’s one win away from George Halas’s total and that pretty much speaks for itself…
– written by Os Davis