NFLbets has been waiting to bet this point spread at least since the week 11 Thursday night game ended:
The rationale quite simply being that the Titans are currently on an 8-0 run ATS, a feat last accomplished by those 2007 New England Patriots. Those Patriots of NFL betting lore won the eight straight by torching opponents by 25.5 points per game while a 10½-point favorite on average; in their equally long run, this year’s Titans were the underdogs in four of the eight games.
Of course NFLbets realizes that in week 12, the 2022 Tennessee Titans aren’t playing the 2007 New England Patriots – but we hope the anomalousness of the Titans’ is clear.
So can we justify a Bengals win in Nashville, where hometown Tennessee is 15-6 SU/13-8 ATS in regular-season games going back to 2020? (Not to mention the Titans’ current 6-1 SU/ATS streak…)
Well, why not? Cincinnati has racked up eight games nearly as good as Tennessee’s against the spread at 7-1, and 7-3 for the regular season. And while Mike Vrabel’s defense is justifiably touted, the Bengals’ offense may just now be finding its stride in scoring 30 or more points in four of the past five games – even without Jamarr Chase. Granted, three NFC South teams not named the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus the Pittsburgh Steelers is hardly a terrifying quartet of defenses, but at least (optimistically speaking here) they’ve made for good sharperners.
Additionally, on their way to Super Bowl LVI, the Bengals started at 5-4 SU/4-4-1 ATS before closing out on a torrid 8-4 SU/10-2 ATS run. Considering Cincy literally redid their entire offensive line between the Super Bowl and week 1 kickoff, the time to be scared of this year’s Bengals, who won back-to-back games SU/ATS after starting out 4-4 SU/5-3 ATS.
Figuring for more pragmatic factors: The Bengals offense has given up just seven turnovers since the disastrous game 1 against the Steelers and, thanks in part to their recent binge, have worked their way up to third-highest scoring team in the NFL. All well and good, but the defensive statistics may be deceptive in Cincinnati’s case, particularly against the run game. The numbers say “average”, but the reality is that run-heavy sides like Baltimore, New Orleans and Cleveland have recently romped against the Bengals.
On the other hand, the Titans will likely need more than Derrick Henry: The simplest stat regarding these Bengals are their 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS marks when scoring 20 points or fewer. While this may seem evident, note that last season’s 2-4 SU/4-2 ATS – including the AFC divisional playoff win against the Titans – was quite a bit better. Wonder why that over/under is 43½, implying a final score of around 23-20, eh…?
So yes, NFLbets is confident enough to back the Bengals against the Titans and their gaudy numbers – and we’d guess the odds on the Bengals in the “To Win Division,” “To Win AFC” and “To Win Super Bowl LVII” futures bets will decline after this weekend, too: Take the Cincinnati Bengals -2½ at Tennessee.
– written by Os Davis
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49ers get two more third-round compensatory picks after Titans hire Ran Carthon. The NFL implemented a new rule to try to incentivize teams to develop minority coaches and executives. 49ers also received third round picks when Commanders hired Martin Mayhew as General Manager, Jets hired Robert Saleh as head coach and Dolphins hired Mike McDaniel as a head Coach.
Ran Carthon is leaving the San Francisco 49ers to become the new general manager of the Tennessee Titans. Carthan's work with the scouting department is heavily used in the late rounds. The 49er's will have three third-round compensatory draft picks in this year's upcoming NFL draft. The team will look for a new director of player personnel. They will also look to trade up in draft if they choose to do so. It is good news for the Titans as they fired Jon Robinson late in regular season.
The Tennessee Titans are hiring San Francisco 49ers director of pro personnel Ran Carthon as their new general manager. Carthan played football for the Indianapolis Colts and the Florida Gators. He was a scout for Atlanta Falcons and St. Louis Rams. Before that, he was the director for player personnel for Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys. He spent three seasons in the NFL. His most memorable football experience was with the Colts. Peyton refused to bet on the Tennessee vs. Florida game.
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John Leglue is a former offensive lineman for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He played for them from 2020 to 2022. Now he's going to Tennessee on a Futures contract. Legrue will play for Mike Vrabel. He's not guaranteed a roster spot. All five starters on the Steelers' offensive line played in all 17 games this season. The team is dissatisfied with its offensive lines. It's possible he'll be cut and fall back on their practice squad. John Legleu began his NFL career as an undrafted free agent out of Tulane in 2019.