NFLbets has been waiting to bet this point spread at least since the week 11 Thursday night game ended:
Cincinnati Bengals -2½ at Tennessee Titans, over/under 43½ points
The rationale quite simply being that the Titans are currently on an 8-0 run ATS, a feat last accomplished by those 2007 New England Patriots. Those Patriots of NFL betting lore won the eight straight by torching opponents by 25.5 points per game while a 10½-point favorite on average; in their equally long run, this year’s Titans were the underdogs in four of the eight games.
Of course NFLbets realizes that in week 12, the 2022 Tennessee Titans aren’t playing the 2007 New England Patriots – but we hope the anomalousness of the Titans’ is clear.
So can we justify a Bengals win in Nashville, where hometown Tennessee is 15-6 SU/13-8 ATS in regular-season games going back to 2020? (Not to mention the Titans’ current 6-1 SU/ATS streak…)
Well, why not? Cincinnati has racked up eight games nearly as good as Tennessee’s against the spread at 7-1, and 7-3 for the regular season. And while Mike Vrabel’s defense is justifiably touted, the Bengals’ offense may just now be finding its stride in scoring 30 or more points in four of the past five games – even without Jamarr Chase. Granted, three NFC South teams not named the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus the Pittsburgh Steelers is hardly a terrifying quartet of defenses, but at least (optimistically speaking here) they’ve made for good sharperners.
Additionally, on their way to Super Bowl LVI, the Bengals started at 5-4 SU/4-4-1 ATS before closing out on a torrid 8-4 SU/10-2 ATS run. Considering Cincy literally redid their entire offensive line between the Super Bowl and week 1 kickoff, the time to be scared of this year’s Bengals, who won back-to-back games SU/ATS after starting out 4-4 SU/5-3 ATS.
Figuring for more pragmatic factors: The Bengals offense has given up just seven turnovers since the disastrous game 1 against the Steelers and, thanks in part to their recent binge, have worked their way up to third-highest scoring team in the NFL. All well and good, but the defensive statistics may be deceptive in Cincinnati’s case, particularly against the run game. The numbers say “average”, but the reality is that run-heavy sides like Baltimore, New Orleans and Cleveland have recently romped against the Bengals.
On the other hand, the Titans will likely need more than Derrick Henry: The simplest stat regarding these Bengals are their 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS marks when scoring 20 points or fewer. While this may seem evident, note that last season’s 2-4 SU/4-2 ATS – including the AFC divisional playoff win against the Titans – was quite a bit better. Wonder why that over/under is 43½, implying a final score of around 23-20, eh…?
So yes, NFLbets is confident enough to back the Bengals against the Titans and their gaudy numbers – and we’d guess the odds on the Bengals in the “To Win Division,” “To Win AFC” and “To Win Super Bowl LVII” futures bets will decline after this weekend, too: Take the Cincinnati Bengals -2½ at Tennessee.
– written by Os Davis