In week 7 of the 2022 NFL season, overs didn’t perform quite as well as NFLbets expected, hitting on half of the 14 games played – yet still the best showing by high-scoring offenses (plus a bunch of pick-sixes) this year thus far. In NFLbets’ over watch (Overwatch?) for ’22, overs are a weak 44-65-1.
To regress to the mean, overs would have to go 9-7 (in 16-game weeks) or 8-6 (in 14) for the remaining 11 weeks of the season. NFLbets isn’t suggesting this neat scheme will happen, but NFL bettors should trend to betting overs. And just has unders hit at a 10-6 clip in week 6, we’d guess that at some point between now and week 12, we’ll see a similar overperformance by overs one week. Could it be this one…?
Below run the point spreads and over/unders for the week 8 NFL games.
NFLbets’ hot(tish) takes:
– written by Os Davis
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