Hoo boy, after slogging through the 12-9 overtime shootout that was last week’s Thursday Night Football, Al Michaels ha alreadys got to be dreading his assignment this week for TNF – and NFL bettors can certainly commiserate. Just gaze upon the potential awfulness of
Washington Commanders -1 at Chicago Bears, over/under 37½ points
The home team and marginally favored Bears have gotten off to a 2-3 SU/2-2-1 ATS start; the three SU losses are to respectable teams in Green Bay, Minnesota and the New York Giants, but the “positives” may end there. The offense averages 17.2 points per game, with an average QB stat line of 10-of-17 for 116 yards; the Bears are also second-to-last is total yardage.
On the other side are the Commanders, off to a ever-worsening 1-4 SU/ATS mark which represents four straight losses since opening day in which the average margin of defeat has been 11 points. Since week 1, the Washington offense has managed eight total touchdowns against six turnovers. Their TO differential is -7 and the defense literally has not notched an interception, fumble recovery or even a turnover on downs since the Jaguars game.
Neither of these brief analyses speaks particularly well for either side but NFLbets’ll give a slight edge to Chicago here for their lack of propensity to, you know, shoot themselves in the foot while simultaneously showing a little, you know, life on defense.
That over/under is just begging to be bet as well: In a season of generally low-scoring games, 37½ points would nevertheless be 2022’s lowest over/under line at kickoff yet this season. In the past 60 NFL games kicking off with an OU line at 38 points or less, overs are an unhelpful 29-30-1. The situation this season is slightly more telling: Of the nine games that have gone off with an over/under of 40 of less, overs are 5-3-1.
The really sick stats here involve the Bears, who have already this season three times played games with over/unders of 39 points or less. While the under hit twice, Chicago went 3-0 SU/2-0-1 ATS in the low-energy grinders.
More specifically to this game, the Commanders offense has averaged 18.0 points per game this season, but they haven’t topped 17 in the past three games. Similarly, the Bears have twice scored more than 20, and have won games with point totals of 23 and 19. Finally, there is the Ron Rivera factor. Last week, NFLbets posted San Francisco -6 at Carolina as a Sure Bet based in part on the imminent sacking of head coach Matt Ruhle. Sure enough, the 49ers blew the doors off the uninspired Pantehrs and coach Ruhle was updating his résumé the next day.
Rivera? Yeah, his rope’s gotta be getting well too short at this juncture. After all, the dude’s team has scored 8, 10 and 17 in its lst three games… Take the Chicago Bears +1 vs Washngton and, what the hell, take the under on an O/U of 37½ points.
And spare some thoughts and prayers for poor Al Michaels. He’s getting too old for this shit…
– written by Os Davis
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