NFLbets admits it right from the top: We’re reversing engineering our pick for week 11’s Thursday Night Football game, with a line of:
In betting NFL games, trends must be taken into account. The trends may be on macro, e.g. those involving all home teams in a given season(s), or micro, e.g. those involving a single team, coach or even QB, levels. Bettors may ride or fade them, but trends are ignored at one’s one risk.
The truth is, on this Thursday night, all trends point in one direction (or rather two directions): to take the Green Bay Packers -3 and to take the over on an O/U of 41-42 points.
Specifically speaking, numbers like this had NFLbets itching to bet against the Titans as soon as they’d polished off the dictionary-definition hapless Denver Broncos in week 10:
NFLbets believes that, in a vacuum, the four above statistical trends should be faded, thus giving good reason to bet against the Titans, particularly the defense, as minimum two touchdowns likely must be scored by the Packers offense to cover the over – so is there any justification to believe Green Bay holds up their end of the bet?
The languid Aaron Rodgers and his Packers may have shrugged off their malaise (not to mention an 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS stagger) with an overtime win versus the Dallas Cowboys in week 10. The SU win also represented the Pack’s first this season against a team currently with a winning record.
The 28 points in regulation time represented the most Green Bay’d scored in 60 minutes this season, and killing the game with 17 unanswered points certainly gave the appearance of a winning team.
The really impressive thing about the Packers win, though, was the gameplan: Rodgers threw just 20 passes, leaving Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to get 39 touches and go for a combined 221 yards. Should they run the same strategy at the Titans – and why not? Dillon and Jones have been Green Bay’s top skill players all season – though the Titans’ D is hardly the ideal victim.
In nearly direct opposition to the Packers, who have seen the sixth-most rushing attempts this season, the Titans have faced the most; yet, they’re third-best in yards allowed per attempt. If you’re a fan of battles in the trenches, you’re probably gonna love this battle of Jones & Dillon vs. Derrick Henry.
We may have to sweat out the five touchdowns realistically needed to hit on over-41, but the numbers don’t lie. And if you lose, just bet against the Titans and on the over: NFLbets tells ya, they’re due...
– written by Os Davis