NFLbets needs to analyze the week 12 Sunday night game, not only for betting purposes but also to try and discern what NFL bettors are throwing money at in
Green Bay Packers +6½ at Philadelphia Eagles, over/under 46½ points
To be more accurate, NFLbets knows where the handle is going in this game. This line has gone from Green Bay +7/+7½ to an advantage of under a touchdown over the course of the week. We realize that the Eagles have stumbled slightly after losing their first game of the season SU to a surging Washington Commanders team, going from 8-0 SU/5-3 ATS to 9-1 SU/5-5 ATS; this includes their current three-game losing streak against the spread.
But a potential bounceback from regressing to .500 makes us like the Eagles even more, particularly given the Packers’ play this season. Quite frankly, Green Bay is a mediocre team with – and we all knew this prior to the season – quite possibly the league’s worst receiving corps this side of the Houston Texans and the Kupp-less L.A. Rams.
These Packers have been overrated by the sportsbook pretty much all-season while going for a 4-7 SU/ATS record – including an incredibly bad 2-5 SU/1-6 ATS as a favorite; the sole ATS loss as an underdog came in week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings. Against teams who currently have a winning record, the Packers are 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS – yet the oddsmakers and/or bettors appear to be in denial.
Much of the help on the point spreads is due to Aaron Rodgers, naturally, and Rodgers’s tale of statistical woe has been well harped on: He’s having his worst season in terms of completion percentage and very close to new lows in passing yardage per game. Indeed, the Eagles are bringing a top-10 defense in most categories, including the top rating in turnovers while the offense is top-5 in most stats against a defense squarely in the bottom half against run or pass.
Folks, this looks like most like a point spread determined by reputation. Maybe if there were word that Jordan Love would be getting the start for Rodgers, who claimed a broken thumb following another underperformance against the Tennessee Titans in week 11. Well, NFLbets ain’t buying it. Take the Philadelphia Eagles -6½ (or even 7) vs Green Bay.
– written by Os Davis
Eagles cover the -7.5 spread and the total is under 48.
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