NFLbets Pick of the Week: Seattle Seahawks favoured by just 2½ in England? Jolly good!

13 October 2018

NFLbets digs on these “NFL International Series” games played in the U.K. Those at Azteca Stadium in Mexico City – possible Super Bowl preview there in November with the Los Angeles Rams playing the Kansas City Chiefs – are often spectacular events as well, with walls of 100,000 attendees making for a real Thunderdome effect. But the games on the British Isles? Awesome.

Seriously, what’s better than a Sunday when the first NFL game kicks off at 9:30 am ET/6:30am PT? I mean, how else are you going to lose win money while eating breakfast? Even games such as this week’s tilt at Tottenham give us the nicely surreal opportunity to watch a primetime game at 1pm ET/10am PT.

Betting on UK NFL games can be fun and lucrative if you’ve been paying attention since the International Series in its current format was kicked off, so to speak. But praise be the football gods – this week, one needs to know f$%#^%-all to bet this one, because the mass media has already shown us who the winner will be. We’re talking

Seattle Seahawks -2½ vs Oakland Raiders, over/under 48.0 points

NFLbets is convinced that the stats ATS on NFL International Series Games are irrelevant in this particular case, we’ll run ’em here anyway, because they’re pretty incredible. Since 2014, favorites abroad are 11-4 ATS (9-4 in the UK, 2-0 in Mexico). Further, favorites against any team not named the Jacksonville Jaguars – essentially London’s surrogate home team – are on a 9-2 ATS run in UK games.

When looking through the International Series games, NFLbets figures that two factors come into play for would-be successful bettors:

•  Recent experience in the UK. Altogether teams are 8-5 SU/ATS when on a return visit to the British Isles; without Miami Dolphins games figured in, that mark goes to 7-3 SU/ATS.

•  Game preparation. NFL International Series games can readily turn into blowouts quick when the difference in coaching talent is on the sidelines, because in England games teams battle time as much as one another. The unprepared team can expect lotsa three-and-outs at best, a gift package of multiple turnover to the opposition at worst.

So here’s how Jon Gruden convinced NFLbets to <strong>take the Seattle Seahawks -2½ vs the Raiders</strong> at Tottenham Stadium. Chucky, who’s never coached an NFL game abroad, explained his plan with Trumpian eloquence: “The length of the flight, probably get over there ... and mostly just recover with the players. Get them to stretch. Get them a little something to eat. Get their blood pumping. Get a walkthrough. Then Saturday, the day before the game, a lot of review...”

If it’s not clear by now that Gruden is this team's Jeff Fisher-like anesthesiologist in the operation to morph the Oakland Raiders into the Las Vegas Raiders, a “plan” like that certainly blows the fog away. Pete Carroll had his Seahawks take an overnight flight on Wednesday and go through the next day normally, like a sane person seeking to avoid the short-term effects of jetlag. They’re planning full practices on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. At a glance, whose game prep is better?

Now don’t get NFLbets wrong here: The Seahawks are bringing a little to the table here on their own. Seattle is just 1-1-1 ATS against apparent non-playoff contenders (like Oakland) this season thus far, though played well enough in the post-Earl Thomas middle finger game against the Los Angeles Rams last week to get the ATS win. And while hardly mistaken for a dominant Super Bowl-going force, the Seahawks D nevertheless ranks in the top 10 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and DAVE metrics; Oakland’s ranks bottom five.

(Hey, didn’t they used to have Khalil Mack?)

The offense is lacking much of anything beyond Russell Wilson, who looks better and better as his team slowly – and in the case of the offensive line, literally – disintegrates around him weekly. Thanks to the defense keeping scores low, generally stopping anything coming their way not named Todd Gurley, Wilson has almost single-handedly kept Seattle in every game this season: Margins of victory in 2018 Seahawks games has been 3, 7, 11, 3 and 2. Indeed, that must be the reason the line in this game is so low.

To make it official, then. NFLbets Pick of the Week for NFL week 6 is to take the Seahawks -2½. You’ll also want to take the under on an O/U of 48 points. Here’s to thinking Merry Olde England won’t be so jolly good to the Raiders…