NFL Final Results, Week 7 (Weird Coaching Killed NFLbets edition)

24 October 2018

Look, NFLbets could easily complain about how weird coaching decisions killed our Pick of the Week and one best bet in week 7. But games like Chargers/Titans and Falcons/Giants – both instances in which the winning team failed to cover the spread, by the way – are reminders of NFLbets’ NFL Betting Tip #5: Don’t put yourself in a position to lose.

In the case of player-based proposition bets, Betting Tip #5 comes in handy when the NFL bettor is tempted to take the over on an already inflated line – particularly in season-long props. Research done by a podcast hardly needing publicity from our lowly selves revealed that 70% of MLB player props in 2018 hit the under, for reasons involving hype, sportsbooks’ marketing and the general inability of humans to foresee the future. We see no reason to disbelieve this phenomenon to be different in NFL football. Betting Tip #5 implies you should rarely bet the over in such props … unless they involve Todd Gurley, perhaps.

For week-to-Week point spreads, Betting Rule #5 may be read as “Only Bet the Blowouts.” Easier written than done, to be sure, but ideally the apparent laughers are really the only games you should be betting. We were reminded this week, for example, that the 2018 Atlanta Falcons are not trustworthy (they’re now a sad 2-5-0 ATS including a just pitiful 0-4-0 ATS mark on the road) and that Mike Vrabel's cajones are large enough so as to effect Earth's gravity.

Below runs a complete list of results for week 6 in NFLbets’ standard format, i.e. adjusted for the point spread; all results listed in boldface indicate games in which the SU winner did not cover the spread. Comments, questionable humor and the occasional salient point courtesy NFLbets writer/editor Os Davis.

•  Denver Broncos 44 at Arizona Cardinals 10. Another advantage online sportsbooks have over their “real-life” counterparts: Timing. Yours truly arrived at a Vegas sportsbook literally five minutes too late to throw down a bunch of Moneys (NFLbets’ preferred currency) on the Broncos – or, more precisely, against these Cardinals. Hoo, are they bad.

•  Indianapolis Colts 30, Buffalo Bills 6. The splendiferousness of the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams in 2018 has been matched only by the putridness of the Bills and Cardinals.

•  Houston Texans 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 3½. How can Blake Bortles be benched a week before the Jaguars’ traditional London game? Are the Texans really 4-3 SU and winning this division? Does this mean NFLbets’ dark horse AFC champion proposition bet on Houston is still alive? Answers: Dude, it’s Bortles; yes; and yeah, surrrrrrrrrrrre.

•  Tennessee Titans 19, Los Angeles Chargers 13½ (in UK). Speaking of London games, how about Mike Vrabel’s ballsy-as-f#&^#& decision to go for the 2-point conversion and the win in the final half-minute? The crazy thing from the NFL bettor’s perspective is that, as soon as the players lined up for the two, anyone who had Titans +6½ knew they’d won, barring penalty. No convert, no flags and bang went NFLbets’ Pick of the Week.

•  New England Patriots 37 at Chicago Bears 31. Who’d’ve thought the mighty Patriots would have been giving just 1 point to the Bears, in Chicago or not? We’re kinda sorry the SU upset didn’t happen here, because the spins on ESPN would have been fascinating. Also, tedious by Wednesday.

•  Kansas City Chiefs 38½, Cincinnati Bengals 10. As amazing as the Chiefs have been on the field, their 6-0-1 mark ATS is truly a thing of wonder. For next week, the bookmakers have Kansas City giving 10 points to visiting Denver. Hmmm…

•  Los Angeles Rams 31 at San Francisco 49ers 10. The Rams haven’t been quite as good to NBL bettors as have the Chiefs at “just” 4-2-1 ATS. The over in Rams games is an utterly counterintuitive 3-4 , as either the opposing offense is incapable of scoring, e.g. the Raiders, Cardinals and 49ers, or the over/under is set ridiculously, CFL-level high, like the 52 for this game and the 50½ for Rams-Seahawks.

•  Cleveland Browns 23 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22½. Poor Cleveland…

•  Minnesota Vikings 33½ at New York Jets 17. Thanks to the reappearance of New Orleans as a dominant offensive force in the NFC, the Vikings will get to fly under the radar for a few weeks. Minnesota currently sports record of 5-1-1 ATS, second-best to only Kansas City, and an incredible 4-0-0 ATS on the road. Unfortunately, NFL bettors must wait until week 11 – at Chicago on November 18 – to get that opportunity again.

•  Detroit Lions 29 at Miami Dolphins 24. See, the Miami Dolphins just aren’t that good. And when they squeak into the playoffs, NFLbets will be deaf to the hype of Ryan Tannehill and his plucky underdogs and bet the opposition minus all the points.

•  Carolina Panthers 21 at Philadelphia Eagles 12. Can we as a nation now agree to drop the expression “Super Bowl hangover” from the English language? Thanks in advance!

•  New Orleans Saints 24 at Baltimore Ravens 20½. NFLbets believes that if ever the sportsbooks posted a home underdog, the Ravens of week 7 should have been it. Kudos to Baltimore for keeping this one close against a team that’s looking more like a Super Bowl contender weekly – if you believe in moral victories, that is. Which you shouldn’t.

•  Washington 20, Dallas Cowboys 16. Ezekiel Elliott's stat line: 15 rushes for 33 yards; 2 receptions on 6 targets for 9 yards. Yeah, Amari Cooper can't arrive soon enough.

•  New York Giants 20, Atlanta Falcons 18½. Seriously, though, WTF was up with the two-point conversion call as the Giants are down by 14 (9½) ATS? And what’s up with the Giants’ lackadaisical pace in the two-minute drill and concomitant inability to score a TD despite the red carpet to the end zone laid out by the Atlanta D? Can you say “Tank,” boys and girls? I knew you could.