The “Jets always play the Patriots tough” cliché vs. reality (Come on, you're really betting against Belichick?)

25 November 2018

NFLbets hates clichés. Already trapped as we are in an incredibly loud world, who needs more meaningless blather to make things noisier? And in the betting world, belief in such common nonsense often proves detrimental to the bankroll, as the cliché certainly need be, likesay, true to be believed.

But NFLbets hates clichés even when they are true. Cliché conveniently stands in for critical thinking, bypassing the analysis the proper bettor needs to do before throwing down a wager. True, crusty old pap like “Defense Wins Championships” may be backed by stats, but on Any Given Sunday one might have to Think Outside The Box, consider the Bigger Picture and stop Throwing Good Money After Bad.

This week’s Exhibit A: “The New York Jets always play the New England Patriots tough.”

This was the line bleated out by many a podcaster, radio show host and ESPN dude (men, women … they’re all dudes on The Worldwide Leader) this week who sought to predict the outcome of

New England Patriots -10 at New York Jets, over/under 46½ points

NFLbets crunched some simple numbers on this one and, in short, whoa. These are real and they are spectacular.

The last time the Jets were favored in this biannual meeting of AFC East “rivals” was back in week 2 of the *2008* season. You may recall that as Matt Cassel’s second start for the Patriots at quarterback; the Jets and head coach Eric “The Man Genius” Mangini of course had Brett Favre at the helm. As 1-point home favorites, the Jets lost that one SU, 19-10.

And then things got weird. Since 2008, the Jets are 5-13 SU against the Patriots, including the current 3-11 run. The mindblower is that ATS, the Jets are – get this – 12-6 ATS in the matchup. The point spreads on these games vary, as do the point differentials: Six times in this span, the Patriots have won by 10 points or more over the Jets, representing all their losses ATS in the rivalry.

So why can’t oddsmakers get a hold on these Jets-Patriots games? Like NFLbets knows. We’d guess, however, that since oddsmakers and sportsbooks should not be beholden to cliché but must aspire to marketability, the points spreads are kept low so as to encourage someone to bet these mostly anti-climactic and/or meaningless New York-New England games.

Regardless, the motivation doesn’t matter, right? The Jets Always Play The Patriots Tough cliché has been proven mostly true, right? Sure! Go ahead and throw down lots of money on the Jets +10!

Ah ha! Not so easy, is it? Now you’re *thinking* -- and on the right track, NFLbets believes.

For over half of the aforementioned games, the New York Jets coach was Rex Ryan. Ryan essentially considered the Patriots game in New York to be the Jets’ annual Super Bowl. (You can hardly blame the dude, with his career .479 winning percentage and low expectations from management.) Ryan’s Jets went a relatively successful 3-7 SU (and a fantastic 7-3 ATS) against Belichick’s Pats.

Todd Bowles? Worse. Going into Sunday’s game, he’s 21-31 ATS; more relevant for our purposes, his Jets are 1-5 SU and 4-2 ATS against the Patriots. Both of those ATS losses have come in the past three games, in which the Jets have been outscored 91-26. And Bowles’s sole SU win against New England came in the 2015 season’s week 15, an irrelevant game for New England.

This particular edition of the Jets is, to put it plainly, seriously awful on offense. The passing offense is bottom-5 in most statistical categories, and the offense is bottom-3 in turnovers, first downs and total yards. On defense, the Jets are about average in most areas, but the truth is that Tom Brady has shown that he Eats Defenses Like These For Breakfast.

Then there’s Belichick’s Patriots coming out of a bye week. In the head coach’s 18 seasons, his charges are a solid 13-5 SU. The bookmarkers’ collective mindset on this game appears to be that, if/when the Patriots win this game, they’re winning by more than 10. Fair enough, the Patriots have occasionally looked this season – Where’s the running game? Where’s the pass rush? Can Rob Gronkowski qualify for federal disability at this point? – they’re 4-3 SU/ATS against teams at .500 SU or below, but in two games against AFC East opponents have looked like the Taking Care Of Business Patriots of, likesay, the entire 21st century.

NFLbets hates clichés, but we love busting them: Our Pick Of The Week says take the New England Patriots -10 at New York. This could well be the last time we’re recommending the Patriots for the remainder of the season and represents a real win-win for the NFL bettor who’s also a fan. If the Jets somehow overcome, the ESPN dudes and blogosphere alike will with unanimity get to digging the Belichick/Brady Patriots’ graves.