If you saw any coverage from the NFL Network or network NFL broadcasts last Sunday toward the end of the second games, you certainly heard that stat the talking heads love breaking out at precisely this time of year, i.e. in the modern era, 61% of teams which go 2-0 make the playoffs.
All right, let’s crunch those numbers. At 2-0 SU thus far are the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. The 61% metric tells us the odds say five or six of these teams will get into the postseason. Going into the season, NFLbets liked the Patriots, Chiefs and Rams – no deviation from the norm there, surely – prior to the season, so ink them in.
From the opening two games, the evidence on the Ravens and Cowboys is pretty convincing. That’s five, so the NFLbets bubble team (if we’re holding the line of preseason bets) logically would be the Seahawks. There you have it: 5½ teams – and all have playoff pedigree, having played in the postseason last year.
But that’s the problem, isn’t it? The familiar gets comfortable quick, comfort leads to complacency in the NFL better, and complacency leads to losses. Visual data and current stats should be worth something, too, after all, and though it’s early, NFLbets is kinda liking the Buffalo Bills and the 49ers might have enough offense to take care of a pretty easy schedule, though losing LT Joe Staley is, likesay, a serious minus. As for the Packers, the jury’s still out.
In the meantime, NFL bettors have to watch the games play out week to week. Our roundup of what went down, with scores adjusted for point spreads, runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.
• Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Seattle Seahawks 24. So, the Seahawks are now 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS in two games against mediocre teams from the AFC North. As of Wednesday, the Seahawks are just 4½-point favorites at home against the Brees-less Saints. Is it too soon to expect a regression to the mean (in this case, NFLbets is specifically referring to the trend toward ½00 ATS) on Russell Wilson & Co.?
• Dallas Cowboys 25 at Washington 21. Speaking of too soon, it’s definitely too soon to consider the Cowboys as serious Super Bowl contenders – and will probably remain so until they’re actually up several touchdowns on the Rams in the fourth quarter of the NFC championship game…
• Buffalo Bills 27 at New York Giants 14, a.k.a. a result that surprised essentially no one. When will Pat Shurmer and the Giants coaches smarten up, put two TEs out there to run block and just give Saquon Barkley, likesay, 40 carries a game? He might not even need that many, actually…
• Arizona Cardinals 17 at Baltimore Ravens 10. Already NFLbets is dreading the havoc both these teams could wreak with our bankroll coming down the stretch this season; we’re predicting the Cardinals and Ravens will be the NFL’s most unpredictable teams to bet in 2019.
• San Francisco 49ers 41, Cincinnati Bengals 16. All those delusions about the Bengals’ viability as an NFL team weren’t completely off, but surrendering 40-plus points to a (putting it charitably) shaky offense like the 49ers’ definitely lets some air out of the bandwagon’s tires.
• Green Bay Packers 18, Minnesota Vikings 16. So maybe this Packers defense is really spectacular – or maybe they’re played two games against Mitchell Trubisky and Kirk Cousins. This, incidentally, is how Green Bay wins the NFC North in 2019.
• Kansas City Chiefs 21 at Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders 10. Quick: What is the fewest amount of points the Chiefs have scored with Pat Mahomes at QB? 26. Ridiculous.
• Los Angeles Rams 25, New Orleans Saints 9. So much for revenge – and so much for the referees not picking on poor New Orleans…
• New England Patriots 24 at Miami Dolphins 0. In 2007, bookmakers saddled those undefeated, point-a-minute Patriots four times with point spreads of -18½ or larger (all in weeks 12-16, incidentally). In 2013, the Jacksonville Jaguars twice got such huge handicaps – at Denver and at Seattle, homes of the teams in that season’s Super Bowl. The winless 2008 Detroit Lions and 2017 Cleveland Browns were never given over 18½ in a game; the reborn 1999 Browns and the expansion 2002 Houston Texans got just one such ’spread. In week 3, the Dolphins are giving 22 points at Dallas, making this the second 18½+ point spread *already*. It is no exaggeration to say that the 2019 Miami Dolphins may be the sportsbooks’ least favorite NFL team of all-time – or at very least since the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
• Detroit Lions 13 at Los Angeles Chargers 9. The Detroit Lions are currently 1-0-1 SU and are in second place in the NFC North. This could be the apex of Matt Patricia’s head coaching career.
• Indianapolis Colts 19 at Tennessee Titans 14
• Jacksonville Jaguars 12 at Houston Texans 5½.Two teams without their top choice at QB and a third without one, and yet the AFC South should still be interesting and competitive throughout. Also an NFL bettor’s nightmare in divisional games.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 at Carolina Panthers 6½. So maybe that whole double shoulder surgery thing isn’t so great for quarterbacks in the short term…
• Atlanta Falcons 24, Philadelphia Eagles 19. You know those “Don’t get mad, get even” ads? Well, here’s a thought from NFLbets: Don’t get mad at all that wasted potential in Philadelphia since the Super Bowl win – get even (literally) by betting against them.
• Denver Broncos 14, Chicago Bears 13. The over/under on this game was 41 points with a point spread of Bears +2 to +3; so where the hell where the points from either of these two teams supposed to come from? Until further notice, you’re betting the under in all Bears games: These lines can’t get low enough.
• Cleveland Browns 16½ at New York Jets 3. Short Golden Age for the Jets, eh?
-- written by Os Davis
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