NFLbets’ Week 5 picks: Betting on big point spreads and the Air Raid Offense

Saturday, 05 October 2019 12:05 EST

Well, that Thursday night game was fun – especially if you had the Seattle Seahawks money line covered. Sunday has a few more appealing options for NFL bettors – especially if you dig points. Following are NFLbets’ picks of the week for week 5, and fret not: We didn’t forget the two best bets of the week – those are coming soon.

New York Jets +14 at Philadelphia Eagles

NFLbets knows we said we were going to stay away from these double-digit point spreads on the Jets and Dolphins for a while, but apparently that “while” lasted two weeks.

Sam Darnold, still getting held out thanks to complications from mononucleosis, is but one missing piece on this offense: Josh Bellamy and Demaryius Thomas will play hurt if at all, and OT Kelechi Osemele is listed as doubtful as of Friday; that's just on the starting offense. The Jets’re also short LBs C.J. Mosely and Jordan Jenkins while Quinnen Williams is questionable and saw limited practice this week. In short, the Jets are quite unfortuitous in 2019 thus far in general and particularly so to be drawing the Eagles in Philly this week.

The Eagles snapped an 0-3 ATS losing streak with a nice 34-27 SU win against the Green Bay Packers in Wisconsin. In contrast to the Jets, the Eagles’ sole key player out this week is DeSean Jackson. Carson Wentz certainly didn’t produce a gaudy stat line at 16-of-27 for 160 and a long of 20 yards, but his 3 TD passes against zero turnovers against the bets defense he’s faced this season speaks to the efficiency this offense is capable of.

Do you believe the Eagles’ win represented something of a turnaround? We’re going that way, and we’re looking for the Eagles to finally stretch the proverbial win this season while finally putting together of a win of more than 7 points difference. Take the Philadelphia Eagles -14 vs the New York jets.

New England Patriots -16 at Washington

And you bet (so to speak) NFLbets’ll double down on the big ’spreads this week. This matchup at this point of human civilization just isn’t fair. On one side is a team winning games SU by a margin of 23.75 per and boasting a historically great defense; on the other is an offense “powered” by one QB on the way out and a rookie who’s not ready.

As for coach Jay Gruden, for whom the writing on the wall is scripted in 20-foot tall letters of flame, let’s say (write?) this: NFLbets doesn’t imagine Bill Belichick has a personal grudge against Gruden, but by game’s end, it may appear so. Take the New England Patriots -16 at Washington.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Cincinnati Bengals, over/under 47 points

Others may see two also-rans when considering this matchup, but we see the possibility of some glorious chaos – not to mention opportunities to cash in. Tastiest for the NFL bettor in this game are the wonderfully porous defenses on both sides.

While the actual spread has almost shrunk to acceptable levels for covering the Bengals minus points after starting the week at Cardinals +4½. All the action that’s apparently coming in on the Cardinals has got to be based on faith in Kyler Murray, whose offense is showing some pretty glaring limitations. Fascinatingly, Murray and the Cardinals rank no. 3 in pass attempts – perhaps a consequence of literally having never played with a lead this entire season – but are third-worst in net yards per attempt.

Whether Murray can find Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk often enough against the Bengals remains a question, but he and coach Kliff Kingsbury may finally get the change to properly display that hyped “Air Raid Offense.”

Cincinnati’s defense doesn’t look statistically nearly as bad as Arizona’s, but the Bengals are bottom-5 in that most important category: points allowed. Intriguingly, their own stats against the pass are a mirror image of Murray’s: The Bengals D has seen the fewest pass attempts but are second worst in YPA. Crazy!

Arizona’s defense is just brutal, ranking bottom-5 in allowing points, yards, passing TDs and rushing yards. Neither team generates many turnovers or brings any pass rush to speak of. While Andy Dalton is hardly making anyone forget Tom Brady, as a 9-year veteran, he’s certainly capable of completing passes under no pressure. This one could be a scoreboard-spinner: Take the over on an O/U of 47 points.

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 3-4.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week this season: 8-10.