Odds, picks in “Which Team Will Tom Brady Play for in 2020?” proposition bet

08 March 2020

Here’s yet another area of sports betting in which the emotions must give way to pragmatism – if you want the bankroll to survive before the NFL season starts. We’re talking the proposition bet “Which Team Will Tom Brady Play for In 2020?”

Evidence of too many bettors succumbing to the hype of the NFL rumor mill is rife when considering the odds table. In this prop, odds on the New England Patriots have gone from -400 to -180 at the end of February to just -120 at present. This is, of course, ridiculous. Any sharps betting this prop (and, yesh, NFLbets knows true sharps almost never play props, particularly those of this sort) are certainly piling on to Brady sticking with the Patriots.

Look, we know many NFL fans and bettors *want* Touchdown Tom to go elsewhere. Many are still laboring under the delusion that Brady can still handle the workload of a dude half his age; these folks reckon that Golden Boy leaving New England means the end of the Patriots dynasty. Except that, if Tom gets paid the big bucks as suspected, New England won’t be offering the replacements so needed at many a position.

None of this is to say (write?) that one shouldn’t take a chance with a decent value bet elsewhere; a couple of teams could certainly wind up with Brady – and might get better results than did the Patriots in 2019. Firstly, NFLbets is still thinking about…

• Tennessee Titans (5/1). This one seems like a natural, with Brady’s former teammate Mike Vrabel already in town. One primary argument against Tom ditching Belichick & Co. is the requirement to learn a new playbook. Vrabel of course hasn’t teamed with Brady in over a decade, so some catchup will be required, but we’d guess that speaking the same language will cut through a lot of early chemistry-making BS. Also note that Tennessee has the cap space and a top-5 offensive line. The Titans’ll need Derrick Henry to reup, but would Brady and Henry be a swell draw for each other?

•  Las Vegas Raiders (6/1). In theory, this too looks nearly ideal for Brady. Jon Gruden has done an incredibly good job in the draft and free agency. The Raiders’ OL ranked just behind the Titans’ in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric at no. 5, RB Josh Jacobs is a beast and Jon Gruden is notably quarterback-centric.

By the sheer mathematics, Chucky and the Raiders currently have enough budget room to offer Tommy a $30 million deal – but recall the rumors that two years ago the Black-and-Silver were “forced” to deal Khalil Mack to Chicago due to cashflow problems. Too bad for them – Brady to Vegas would create even more of a splash in Sin City in the team’s first season, and Gruden with Brady would certainly create quite the interesting offense…

•  “Los Angeles” Chargers (8/1). Does Brady even know this team is still in the league? Aside from the logic of plunking down wads of millions to make L.A. sports fans cheer the city’s, what, 20^th-favorite NFL team, nothing suggests Brady plays for this bunch on a franchise which may be in rebuilding mode. (It’s so hard to tell…)

•  Indianapolis Colts (9/1). Sure, Brady playing for the team that triggered Deflategate would be hilariously ironic and all, but better sources from among the rumor mill suggest that the Indy front office is focused on Philip Rivers, which seems will more likely than Brady coming aboard.

•  San Francisco 49ers (10/1). How many more superlatives will we have to apply to Bill Belichick’s future Hall of Fame plaque if he can flip Brady for Jimmy Garoppolo, the dude he wanted to start for the Pats three years ago? Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s distrust in Jimmy G. down the stretch run and straight through to the Super Bowl was incomprehensible to NFLbets – and we’re not just saying (writing?) that because we had several wagers on the Niners. At 10/1, this isn’t the worst bet on the board, but this seems very unlikely.

•  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12/1). Here’s one that appears to be getting lots of play due to sheer logic. Warm weather should extend the career of an aging QB, and Bruce Arians would certainly relish the opportunity to pair a quarterback well less erratic than Jameis Winston with the likes of Chris Godwin, Brashad Perriman and O.J. Howard. But nothing real indicates that Tampa Bay is on the Bradar.

•  Chicago Bears (20/1). The Bears have cap room, a decent OL and what might yet become a top-notch defense again (defense wins championships, don’tcha know), but with his family in New York plus homes in Las Vegas and California, what’s the draw to Chicago for Brady? (It’s the Bizarro Tampa Bay!)

•  Dallas Cowboys (25/1). You know who’s betting these odds? Gullible Cowboys fans and Jerry Jones. Look, just as with the Patriots haters, simply wanting something to happen will not necessarily make it so – even if you’re a billionaire desperate for a Lombardi Trophy…

The NFL free agency period officially opens on March 18.